Raspberry Pi chairman signals manufacturing will move abroad

[Saracen999]

For my employer the issue isn't a no deal Brexit, it's not knowing if that's what it'll be until the last minute.

We can adapt to any kind of Brexit with a few months notice, but anything other than "nothing really changes" is going to cause us pain for the first year at least.

Indeed. But that's the nature of the beast.

In an ideal world, we'd have all this nailed down months in advance, but the problem is, both sides are looking for advantage, and neither side can unilaterally determine what the final result .... unless the UK were to turn round and declare, unilaterally, that we aren't negotiating on anything and come March 29th, it's a no-deal exit. As far as I'm aware, nobody is advocating that.

It's a bit like buying a car, or selling a house, or developing a business contract - terms aren't clear until both sides agree, and so far, both sides haven't. Until a Brexit deal is agreed, and ratified, by all necessary parties, it is simply impossible to be certain what the basis of exit will be.

One example is May agreeing the deal, and the Commons nixing it. Another would be her reaching another desl with the EU, the Commons ratifying it .... and then the EU parliament, or a member state, nixing it. Or, an art.50 extension being agreed with the Commission, then a member state refusing ti ratify it.

The nature of the exit cannot be certain, until the deal is done and ratified by all parties, or until the 2-yr clock expires with no deal agreed.

[persimmon]

I suspect the ppl who want brexit tend to be older, and better off, so that they will not suffer too badly , if and when the brexit project causes the economy to fall off a cliff. Whether it will be as bad or worse than the GFC of 2008 is yet to be seen. At least with that , some bankers/traders got their comeuppance , now it will be poor ppl and plenty of others who will suffer the effects for decades to come. VC 4 PM

[aidanjt]

Erm, no.

IIRC there's only something like two countries that depend solely on WTO terms, they all depend on various agreements, FTA's, and other treaties.

'No true WTO'? Really?

[Glyce]

I love how people with no idea what will happen, post things like this. how does he know what the future holds.
you kind of hope that they leave, it costs them to leave and then when they want to come back its costs them even more :-)

That is really easy to say when you don't own a business that depends on exports and trade deals. You can't "wait and see", you need to move to a predictable state where you can plan ahead, thats why many are moving out to where the rules wont change. Also, one thing is certain, staying within the UK will be worse than staying outside, EU has far more power than the UK when it comes to trading deals.

[Corky34]

'No true WTO'? Really?

Sorry you've lost me.

What's the 'No true WTO' question you're asking mean, do you mean there's not a true WTO, that no country is truly in the WTO, do you mean "No, true WTO", "No. True WTO", or perhaps "No true, WTO.", maybe some punctuation would help to convey what you mean.

[preter_s]

Look at how dumb all the Brexit-eers are. They have no clue whatsoever that the prospects for the UK are bleak. Even when the whole world has decided so!

Economics 101. Perception is reality. The fact that the sterling pound has devalued so much tells you that the world has already decided that the UK and its people are worth less and will be worth less after Brexit, you idiots!

It means that they don't have confidence in the country. It means that they'd rather do business elsewhere ... It means that they'ed rather pay workers from elsewhere to do the same work etc. etc... That's why the sterling pound has become worth less, you fools!

It means that despite you working the same hours (if you can still find a job given the job losses), you can't buy as much stuff that you used to. It means that your property has become devalued. Foreigners can come in to buy up your properties at what is effectively a huge discount for them. It means that first time home buyers can't even get on the property ladder now. It means gentrification of entire neighborhoods even! Talk about keeping foreigners out with Brexit, you just lowered the drawbridge, opened the gates and rolled out the red carpet!

Indeed there should be a special place in hell for those self-serving Brexiteering career politicians who incited racist xenophobic sentiments to call for Brexit without any clue, let alone a plan, for what Brexit holds. All for their chance to dethrone the pre-Brexit government and for them to get a chance in the spotlight and to become Prime Minister. I can only add that those Brexiteering politicians ought to be dragged out onto the streets to be shot... for fooling all the racist xenophobic types into believing Brexit is good for them.

[aidanjt]

Sorry you've lost me.

What's the 'No true WTO' question you're asking mean, do you mean there's not a true WTO, that no country is truly in the WTO, do you mean "No, true WTO", "No. True WTO", or perhaps "No true, WTO.", maybe some punctuation would help to convey what you mean.

It's a play on "no true Scotsman", it seemed perfectly obvious to me. The point is, a single FTA doesn't negate WTO membership, it's still the principle trading ruleset used by all 164 members, with 23 observer states in line to ascension to the organisation, who'll also trade on those rules. If they were truly so hideously bad, and 'nobody uses them', then just about every country in the world wouldn't be using, or aspire to use them as their principle trading rules, let alone become members in the first place. And the US and EU certainly would have struck a FTA pretty much as soon as the EU became a thing. The reality is that world trade, even FTAs, are modelled and pivot around the WTO. It's a perfectly decent ruleset that promotes the reduction of tariffs and trade barriers, and yet still providing reasonable flexibility for sovereign discretion.

[Corky34]

As IDK even know what "no true Scotsman" means it was completely lost on me.

There seems to be some misunderstanding of what WTO rules mean, the WTO is the highest, or should that be the lowest, common rule set. As i said previously it's the equivalent of being on an emergency PAYE tax rate with no chance of a rebate.

Yes countries are members of the WTO but being a member doesn't mean you trade only on WTO rules, that being the original point raised, that "Pretty much no country trades on WTO because it is dire": my emphasis. To which you're retort was "other than just about all of them outside of the EU?".

You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of what the WTO is, it's an organisation where countries come together to agree a basic set of trading rules such as being able to apply a maximum tariff of 30% on steel vs a possible unlimited tariff rate. FTA's and other agreements improve upon those basic rules, that's why countries try to negotiate something better than WTO rules as quickly as possible.

Put it this way, not being a member and/or not having a WTO schedule in place is the bottom of the barrel (that's where we'll be when we leave) as other countries can place any tariff and any quotas on both imports and exports, one step up from that is having your schedule accepted as then you've agreed with the other 164 members what the maximum tariffs and quotas will be, the next step up is to negotiate with individual countries or trading block to reduce those tariffs further and increase your quotas.

And if you think it was unfair when we didn't get what we wanted when we were a member of an organisation with 27 other members wait until we have to deal with 164 members, there's already been some quiet high profile objections to the schedule we've submitted.

[Saracen999]

Re:WTO, there's no reason to suppose the UK won't go directly into WTO, and the eeason it can't happen directly, now, is because trade rules are an EU competency.

WTO may also set "maximum" quotas, but it's up to individual countries to set minimums. The caveat is that you cannot differentiate, and moee so, act against one or more members so you set a minimum, you effectively set it for all.

Unless, of course, you form either a customs area or, better, an FTA, at which point those members inside it can trade with lower tariffs and/or non-tariff barriers, while keeping non-members (of the CU or FTA) on disadvantageous, or tovput that more diplomatically, less advsntageous terms than with CU/FTA members.

That, by the way, is precisely why the EU's Customs Agreement is, as I've said before, protectionist - it allows a standard WTO barrier to be quite high, over-ridden between CU members by the CU.

Being an WTO member means a country does all it's trade on WTO rules, except where that trade is done as part of a CU or FTA. Which countries trade with which other is under WTO depends entirely on which CU's/FTA's are in place.

As for "getting our way" with the other 27 being easy compared to WTO, it's an entirely fakse comparison. The EU involves FAR more than CU/FTO and policy directions are, in theory, determined by a complex array of simple majority, qualified majority and, of course, veto's and exemptions. WTO is not a case of us requiring agreement from 164 under any such arrangement, but of following rules.

For an example, there are rules detetmining how EU policy on immigration are supposed to be determined, but in fact, the crisis a couple of years ago showed us, when you see how it was REALLY done, that it's actually about horse-trading and bullying, about cozy little Merkel/Sarkozy back-room deals, and all because they coukdn't get a "rules" agreement because certain countries simply said "No" to Merkel, etc. Hungary was one but at varioys times, Poland, Austria and others refused to be strong-armed ... leading eventually to Merkel's unilateral decision to allow vast numbers into Germany without even telling Sarkozy.

The argument about us not getting our way is loaded. What it really comes down to is that we joined a trade organisation, the Common Market. Or at least, that is how it was sold. But the CM/EEC/EC/EU is not a static creature. It is evolving. The signs are numerous and huge, from common passport, to embassies are foreign policy, to common currency, common taxation common defence, etc.

If you joined a golf club, and the other members slowly decided to abandon golf and bevome a rugby club, you'd be quite justified in, first, objecting to the change but if the others decided to carry on anyway, to leave and maybe play golf with other golf fans. It's not about getting, or failing to get, our way. It's about getting on a bus ftom Canterbury to Durham, and when the driver devides he's going to Cardiff instead, getting off the bus and letting it go to Cardiff, while we get a bus, train, cab ir whatever, to Durham.

If the bus company had originally said the bus was going to Cardiff those wanting to go to Durham either would have got an actual Durham bus .... or a train .... in the first place.


And to those fond of Cardiff, no offense and I'm sure it's a fine place, but not much use to those seeking to visit friends or family that live in Durham.

[FRISH]

Look at how dumb all the Brexit-eers are. They have no clue whatsoever that the prospects for the UK are bleak. Even when the whole world has decided so!

Economics 101. Perception is reality. The fact that the sterling pound has devalued so much tells you that the world has already decided that the UK and its people are worth less and will be worth less after Brexit, you idiots!

It means that they don't have confidence in the country. It means that they'd rather do business elsewhere ... It means that they'ed rather pay workers from elsewhere to do the same work etc. etc... That's why the sterling pound has become worth less, you fools!

It means that despite you working the same hours (if you can still find a job given the job losses), you can't buy as much stuff that you used to. It means that your property has become devalued. Foreigners can come in to buy up your properties at what is effectively a huge discount for them. It means that first time home buyers can't even get on the property ladder now. It means gentrification of entire neighborhoods even! Talk about keeping foreigners out with Brexit, you just lowered the drawbridge, opened the gates and rolled out the red carpet!

Indeed there should be a special place in hell for those self-serving Brexiteering career politicians who incited racist xenophobic sentiments to call for Brexit without any clue, let alone a plan, for what Brexit holds. All for their chance to dethrone the pre-Brexit government and for them to get a chance in the spotlight and to become Prime Minister. I can only add that those Brexiteering politicians ought to be dragged out onto the streets to be shot... for fooling all the racist xenophobic types into believing Brexit is good for them.

I always find it highly ironic how it's the brexit supporters that are the hateful xenophobes, yet so many remainers seem to use extreme verbal aggression such as yourself. From my perspective this polarisation is going to cause major issues down the line.

[proaudio]

So many Brexiteers are leaving the UK and moving to the EU. Pretty ironic.

[OOSeven]

I love how people with no idea what will happen, post things like this. how does he know what the future holds.
you kind of hope that they leave, it costs them to leave and then when they want to come back its costs them even more :-)

As opposed to those who do have a clue what will happen? And who might they be? If Cruella de Vil herself has no clue then how on earth can anyone else hope to have an inkling?

[gagaga]

So many Brexiteers are leaving the UK and moving to the EU. Pretty ironic.

So many bananas are singing opera these days. Pretty ironic.

I've got no evidence for that either, but I said it anyway.

[b0redom]

So many bananas are singing opera these days. Pretty ironic.

I've got no evidence for that either, but I said it anyway.

Well there's this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ax-monaco-move

and this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ncy-vote-leave

and this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-uk-passports

then of course there's this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...g-britain-down

and this:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8461021.html

I realise that most of these links are to a left leaning source, but they've been widely reported all over the shop.

[gagaga]

Well there's this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ax-monaco-move

and this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ncy-vote-leave

and this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-uk-passports

then of course there's this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...g-britain-down

and this:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8461021.html

I realise that most of these links are to a left leaning source, but they've been widely reported all over the shop.

Saving tax is because the tax take in this country has reached absurd levels (the latest proposal I saw today being a 1% tax on clothes that will quite literally cost more to administer than it will raise), Brexit is irrelevent in that (especially as it's likely we'll cut corporation tax post 29 March).

[Corky34]

....(especially as it's likely we'll cut corporation tax post 29 March).

I'm not sure they're moving because of corporation tax, Sir Jim Ratcliffe is moving to Monaco where the corporation tax rate is 33.33%, Nigel Lawson is moving to France where it's 15% for profits < €38120 and 33% over that, Nigel's children have Germany passports but i don't think you'll be setting up a corporation anytime soon (IDK how old they are) but even if they did it's still 29.65%, John Redwood just advised people pull their money out of the UK so that could end up anywhere, and i think the Jacob Rees-Mogg's investment firm moving funds story maybe a bit of a red hearing as it's debatable how much control he has and the amounts and locations involved.