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Thread: Apple iTunes music store doomed?

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    Apple iTunes music store doomed?

    Over at theage.com.au, Alan Kohler is predicting the impending downfall of Apple's iTunes music store. Although the piece doesn't offer a huge amount of evidence, history suggests that Kohler's line of reasoning is sound.

    What he's saying, in effect, is that Apple will be overtaken in the not too distant future by companies using an open, licensable architecture because closed systems of the sort Apple uses to retain total control seldom if ever succeed long term.

    More in this HEXUS.headline.

    Oh, and feel free to share with us your thoughts on Kohler's theory and on open vs closed systems generally.

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    Considering that Nokia have had iTunes running on a series 60 phone, also that both them and SE run Symbian variants not Windows Mobile I would take this with a pinch of salt. I think it is far more likely that iTunes will go from the dominant player to the foremost major player. Apple haven't been adverse to making it's software available for other systems if necessary, the iPod being a catalyst for iTunes for windows. Where they could get caught out is not moving fast enough on giving way to demand, ala Sony's grindingly slow admission of MP3 over Atrac.

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    Senior Amoeba iranu's Avatar
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    Well i hope apples itunes go down the pan due to the Beatle's law suit. I for one will never use an ipod because it locks me into using apple products, it's a classic way of getting a captured market, unfortunately the world is full of muppets who cannot think for themselves and as such want a shiny white ipod cos it's cool rather than what can be done with it and the quality of it's sound.

    I believe the French are currently bringing a lawsuit against apple because of the closed system. Good luck I say.

    Another gripe (sorry in griping mood tonight) is the way apple put their software (itunes) into things like realtime player. The user installs this then finds itunes on the desktop when they never asked for it. It probably says so in the EULA but hey I'm sure I've agreed to sell my soul in one of those a few times.

    i stands for idiot.
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    You're ALL Pretty Much Wrong

    a) The PC OS wars of yore have NOTHING to do with music AND nothing to do with the POST-DESKTOP INTERNET period we are in now. The Ottoman Empire were great in the age of the calvary & muskets - not so much by 1918 - HISTORY does NOT necessarily repeat itself. In OS, you must choose one or the other, in music, the choice is NEITHER but Mp3 - the only real OPEN format.

    b) In case you didn't notice, the MS WMA system is just as "closed" as the Apple's AAC files.*

    c) MP3 has already WON. Since even Sony's players now play mp3 ...

    d) the battle is over 2nd place and itunes wins UNTIL WMA and WMA stores can replicate the following two things on a portable mp3 player.

    1) Replicate the ease of use on itunes. ONE CLICK buys your track and loads it onto your ipod.

    2) Design an interface as easy to use.

    e) After over ONE HUNDRED portable mp3 players and maybe 20 WMA stores, the WMA crowd is still firing blanks. If you still want to bet all your money on them - good for you.

    If you have time, here's the complete reasoning:
    http://metroxing.blogspot.com/2006/0...hropology.html

    f) Go back and re-read reason D and add battery prowess. Until the phone companies come up with a player/phone that has 10+ hours of battery power and is as easy to use as an ipod ... then come back. Storage doesn't matter if it's difficult to use. How many people buy motorcycles even though you can go forever one tank of gas?

    g) I've own about 7 cell phones - of the ones you owned, how many of them have phone books that are difficult to enter or use? ALL of them? How many have interrafces as brilliant and as easy to use as the ipod? How many phones have been released and sold where what they claim and the actual ease of use is the same? Haven't they sold like 3 BILLION phones and about 5,000 choices since the beginning of time? How many are /were near perfect and easy to use? HARDLY ANY. Yes, some of the cases look nice but the interface & UI? Designed by engineers who have clearly NEVER MADE A PHONE CALL IN THEIR LIFE - and again, it's not it's 1981 and the phone is their second try - after 5,000 - you think they would've gotten further.

    g) AND to compound it, the cell phone comapnies are all run by gov't officials or bureaucrats from state phone monopolies - the first people you want to go to for ease of use ... and they are try6ing to claw every bit from us - crippling features and charging to upload & download anything. It is as one writer descibed - the Soviet politburo. How did they compete against capitalists? Again, if you want to back them - good luck.

    h) Not sure why you keep thinking Microsoft is some powerhouse and some diety. They have FAILED at EVERY consumer business since Windows 1995. Yes, MSN, WebTV, Home Networking, MSN Search, watches, etc, etc ... even Xbox ($8 billion to sell 25 million - wouldn't it be easier just to hand us each $400?) MS' time is done. Yes, they are brilliant at selling to gov't's and corporations but outside of that, they are the Soviet politburo.

    i) Look at the Google video store. Look at itunes. re-read D above. The people who want to view motion/movie files on their computers do not need google - they can record, convert or DL elsewhere. The power is making that file portable. Again, until Gogle or YouTube or whomever can make it ONE click into your ipod (or any other device), then you are competiting ... that's not to say there isn't a business as Google/Yahoo have in selling ads and links to page views but that's an ENTIRELY Different business.

    Yes, things are complicated and I know some people would like simple answers so they can get their hands around things but two companies battling over something does not necessarily means it's the same fight nor the same result. Time and the world changes. You have to look at each circumstance and its unique set of facts and situations - not just blather that because the Ottoman's won battles decisively once, it will always be the case.

    And as for Beatle-Apple legal suit - it's all about a logo when it concerns music - THAT'S IT. It's a TINY, TINY case and one that comapnies with bored lawyers face everyday.

    * BTW, none of the music formats are closed since all (including WMA tracks) be LEGALLY converted to DRM free tracks by a few clicks and your ipod or and any mp3 player can function fine without any tracks from the online stores - you are even incorrect to call them closed since they are all legally open.

    Yes, I know journalists have columns to fill and when they run out of facts, they start to idely and INCORRECTLY presume and speculate. Get the facts straight.

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    Quote Originally Posted by iranu
    Well i hope apples itunes go down the pan due to the Beatle's law suit. I for one will never use an ipod because it locks me into using apple products, it's a classic way of getting a captured market, unfortunately the world is full of muppets who cannot think for themselves and as such want a shiny white ipod cos it's cool rather than what can be done with it and the quality of it's sound.

    I believe the French are currently bringing a lawsuit against apple because of the closed system. Good luck I say.

    Another gripe (sorry in griping mood tonight) is the way apple put their software (itunes) into things like realtime player. The user installs this then finds itunes on the desktop when they never asked for it. It probably says so in the EULA but hey I'm sure I've agreed to sell my soul in one of those a few times.

    i stands for idiot.
    "i stands for idiot."

    And your sign in name is iranu?

    What are you trying to tell us?

    The ipod doesn't lock you into anything. itunes is free. You can load 25,000 tracks from your personal collection or buy no DRM tracks and it runs perfectly fine. If you prefer not to drive to a store or have to rip your own CD, the store is there for you but if you never use, you lose no features.

    And of course, anything popular must be idiotic or is it just anything you haven't purchased? You have to look at yourself and wonder - why is that I have to sneer at anything others use either out of jealously or is it something else? How can you live among the rest of us idiots, you intellectual and esthetic giant?

    Then you note, "
    Another gripe (sorry in griping mood tonight) is the way apple put their software (itunes) into things like realtime player. The user installs this then finds itunes on the desktop when they never asked for it."

    Which of course makes no sense but perhaps English is not your first language so I apologize if that's the case:

    Apple does not put things into the "realtime player," which I presume you mean the REAL PLAYER from REAL - which is not an entirely different player/format & from another company so no, Apple does not put its player into someone elses. You are wrong there.

    And in the case of installation - Apple's installers are very clear. You click YES or CANCEL. Unlike Sony's rootkit, if you click CANCEL, it stops. And yes, if you don't wish to use itunes, you cannot use it with an ipod but I'll bet you'd the first in line to compalin if Apple didn't include a jukebox or ripper (BTW, Apple included a ripper for free when Ms was still charging you $19.99 - after itunes came out, MS quickly added that feature for free).

    But its' a choice. You have plenty of mp3 players from dozens of companies and you have over 20 WMA stores to buy from so if you worship at the MS diety, great - good on ya - why the problem when peope buy something else? I'm guessing you use a PC so you are in the majority there - does that upset you also there's a crowd for something you've purchased?

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    Quote Originally Posted by iranu
    i stands for idiot.
    what does the ranu stand for, then?

    Edit: bah, someone's already said that. That'll teach me for typing a reply then forgetting to click Post until a couple of hours later.

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    I have to say that Apple are skanking the good people of the world! Does anyone know how i can take AAC protection of the music i have purchased? Any help would be fantastic!!! Cheers

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    Does he need a reason? Funkstar's Avatar
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    burn it to CD then re-rip it. As for actually removing the DRM from a track, that would be contradictory to the EULA you accepted when you used iTunes and bought music. Also if you are in the US, that would also be illegal.

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    Does he need a reason? Funkstar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    but Mp3 - the only real OPEN format.
    well not really, it is still licensed, so OGG is even more open, because it is open source too. True many players don't support it, but this point is about open-ness not being universal

    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    b) In case you didn't notice, the MS WMA system is just as "closed" as the Apple's AAC files.*
    Not quite. You can use a purchased WMA track on any PlaysForSure compatible player. Thats one hell of a lot more open than on iPod or the trully terrible Motorola ROKR (i believe this is the only non-apple manufactured device that actually handles the FairPlay DRM embeded in files)

    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    If you still want to bet all your money on them - good for you.
    I wouldn't bet a single penny on ANY of the online music stores.

    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    f) Go back and re-read reason D and add battery prowess. Until the phone companies come up with a player/phone that has 10+ hours of battery power and is as easy to use as an ipod ... then come back.
    The Sony Ericsson W800 does it for me. In fact it doesn't have that damned annoying wheel that everyone is obsessed with. iPod interface is vastly over rated in my opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    :hone usability rant::
    Ericsson GA628 (1997) - easy to use
    Nokia 7110 - Easy to use
    Siemens SL45 - Utter rubish
    SonyEricsson T610 - Piece of cake to use
    SonyEricsson K750i - Easiest phone i have ever seen. As above, i think the iPod interface is over rated.

    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    g) AND to compound it, the cell phone comapnies are all run by gov't officials or bureaucrats from state phone monopolies
    If you are going to argue between an iPod and a phone, don't get confused and bring the network providers into it. Even if you do, i think this statement is a little paranoid? NONE of the mobile networks in the UK are run by state operators (mmO2 is a seperate entity to BT, has been for many years). Of course they are regulated by governments and the EU, but they are trying to reduce costs for us.

    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    h) Not sure why you keep thinking Microsoft is some powerhouse and some diety. They have FAILED at EVERY consumer business since Windows 1995. Yes, MSN, WebTV, Home Networking, MSN Search, watches, etc, etc ... even Xbox ($8 billion to sell 25 million - wouldn't it be easier just to hand us each $400?) MS' time is done. Yes, they are brilliant at selling to gov't's and corporations but outside of that, they are the Soviet politburo.
    and Apple have been uber successful in every venture they have started? hmmmm....


    i'm sure someone can pick holes in my replies, but thats fine

    Personally i hope iTunes fails, and people realise they are being ripped off with their online music prurchases.

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    Almost in control. autopilot's Avatar
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    Good story and article Bob. While i dont agree with it all, i do generally think it's probably right.

    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    Mp3 - the only real OPEN format
    No, that would be Ogg Vorbis (or FLAC etc), both of which are open source and both of which better than MP3 in almost every respect. MP3 is still technically owned and licenced by the Fraunhofer Society (although how much control they really have is debatable). Although while i would like to see all DAP's support these, i do agree that MP3 is still a better choice than WMA, AAC or ATRAC, even if it's a poor choice of codec compared to the likes of Vorbis etc.

    As for the Itune's debate, while i think it's far from dead, i think the French are right and it will have it's day.

    It's not the fact that it's still overpriced and poor quality - people might still have a choice, but for how long if people like Apple (and Sony even more so) have thier way? The point is that i love to see people take a stand against the corporations who are making up the rules and bending the law to suit there own monopolistic desires. We are entering a dark age of nazi DRM which is limiting the choice for the consumer. And even worse, it's inceasing the costs if you concider the fact that you if you have mulitple devices, say an iPod, PSP, Music phone, you would have to buy the same track again for each device.

    I have nothing against DRM per say, but It's becoming increasingly less about piracy and more about profiteering. How ironic that Apple's DRM is called 'Fairplay'.

    If opening up DRM kill's itunes, then that's because Apple had the wrong business model. But then they will probably adapt and survive, look how well then have done so far. If they don't, well, unlucky.

    EDIT : Some good points there Funkstar, beat me too it on the MP3 thing.
    Last edited by autopilot; 30-04-2006 at 11:57 AM.

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    Almost in control. autopilot's Avatar
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    Oh and jbelkin, while i feel your tone is a little sharp, you make some reasonable, if slighly poorly researched points.

    However i think you are confusing the issue. Interface design and user experience, which to be fair Apple do have the best, is a seperate issue (at least should be) to the closed system and DRM debate, although it has definatly helped Apple get where there are now as well as having a closed system.

    Quote Originally Posted by jbelkin
    They have FAILED at EVERY consumer business since Windows 1995. Yes, MSN, WebTV, Home Networking, MSN Search, watches, etc, etc ... even Xbox ($8 billion to sell 25 million - wouldn't it be easier just to hand us each $400?) MS' time is done.
    Hmm, not so sure about that. How can almost complete dominace of the OS market, MSN being by far the most popular IM service, etc, etc be be a failure? And, "$8 billion to sell 25 million - wouldn't it be easier just to hand us each $400?" is not the best statment i have ever heard. But maybe we have a slightly different definition of 'failure' mate. Oh, and just because i might disagree with a few of your points does not mean i "worship at the MS diety" lol.

    But i think we are going a little of topic here, sorry
    Last edited by autopilot; 30-04-2006 at 12:00 PM.

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    Does he need a reason? Funkstar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iranu
    Another gripe (sorry in griping mood tonight) is the way apple put their software (itunes) into things like realtime player. The user installs this then finds itunes on the desktop when they never asked for it. It probably says so in the EULA but hey I'm sure I've agreed to sell my soul in one of those a few times.
    Sure iranu got RealPlayer and QuickTime mixed up, but i understood the sentiment.

    The thing is, it's worse than that. In order to install quicktime on a PC, you *have* to download and install iTunes as well. Not only does that tripple the download file size, but you have to install iTunes as well. Sure you can say that you don't have to use it, but it's still there. And that is why i still run QT 6.5.2

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    Almost in control. autopilot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Funkstar
    The thing is, it's worse than that. In order to install quicktime on a PC, you *have* to download and install iTunes as well. Not only does that tripple the download file size, but you have to install iTunes as well. Sure you can say that you don't have to use it, but it's still there. And that is why i still run QT 6.5.2
    Actually, you can get Quicktime without Itune's mate. It's just that Apple don't like to advertise the fact - http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/standalone.html

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    Vive le pants! directhex's Avatar
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    vorbis and flac aren't open because there are open-source codecs

    vorbis and flac are open because they're *PATENT FREE*

    writing software which can rip & play mp3 requires patent licensing from fraunhoffer iis and thompson:

    $0.75 per client or $50,000 flat rate for decoding
    $2.50 for encoding
    $15,000 minimum annual fee

    and the above rates are only if you supply your own software - fraunhoffer codecs you can add $10,000 to the flat-rate deocder license and double the encoder license.

    on that basis, mp3 is no more open than aac, which has open-source implementations (just like mp3) and has similar high patent fees ($0.75 per codec for 1-100,000 units; $0.62 for 100,001-500,000; $0.52 for more; $275,000 maximum total payment). there's really zero difference between aac or mp3, except aac offers higher audio quality

    unless, of course, "the only real OPEN format" is referring to the DRM schemes in use - which is rather silly, it would be entirely possible to sell DRM-free AAC, MP3, ATRAC3+, RM, or whatever.

    personally i *DO* buy music online - but only DRM-free (not patent-free) music in a linux-friendly format. which basically ends up meaning "anything from bleep.com". i will only buy audio CD that's fully conformant to the Red or Blue book standards, and i'll rip the content to Q6 Vorbis for playback on portable devices.

    http://www.vialicensing.com/products...nse.terms.html
    http://mp3licensing.com/royalty/software.html

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