Those cartoons

[Drizz UK]

I see the pysops has worked an absolute treat. The publishing of those cartoons of mohammed served it's purpose of enraging the muslem communties around the world. The resultsing riots and deaths have shocked the west. Now this has helped demonise the muslem religion. so when the war with Iran kicks off at the end of March, people in the west won't feel so bad when they see the tens of thousands of dead.

Ask yourself, just where did all those flag burning rioters get so many Danish flags at short notice? Where they supplied by some one! hmmmmm

[iranu]

so when the war with Iran kicks off at the end of March

Obviously you know something we don't. Are you a US military planner by any chance?

[Drizz UK]

No just my contacts, this geo-political business can be messy.

[Steven W]

Iran's always been next on the list of the West's hidden(or not so hidden)agenda.

Terror is the pretext for the systematic control of all our lives.

Hmmmmm.

[RVF500]

If you recall Rumsfeld recently said that ANY solution was better than a nuclear armed Iran. Not that I'm a Rumsfeld fan but with the nutter that the Iranians have at the helm at the moment he may not be that wide of the mark for once

[DeludedGuy]

Iran + Nuclear Weapons = BOOM!!! CRASH!!!! ARGHH!!!!

[Arnie]

First off, let me say i am not agreeing with the regime in Iran.

However, lets look at the facts -

The Suprieme Leader of Iran put a Fatwa on the production of nuclear weapons, saying it was unislamic. The President of Iran has confirmed this. From my understanding of Islam (not the greatest, i will accept), a fatwa is basically binding in a country which impliments shiara law.

Israel has nuclear weapons (not that i am likening the two countries), but, who are we to say which countries can go nuclear and which cant?

Lets not forget that its thanks to the West and the USA that the Islamic republic exists at all, if we hadnt kept reinstalling the Shah as king then there would have been no islamic revolution and (we are getting to speculation here, i accept) Iran would have probably developed into a stable, left leaning, parliamentary democracy.


Pulling back to first post, i find it a bit distasteful that such a plan could exist to harden western opinion, but after the Iraq fiasco i cant dismiss it as a crazy conspiracy theory.

[Big RICHARD]

Israel has nuclear weapons (not that i am likening the two countries), but, who are we to say which countries can go nuclear and which cant?

Unfortunately (or fortunately if you aren't Iranian) there is such a thing as the Non-proliferation treaty. It is that treaty that prevents current non-nuclear nations from obtaining nuclear status. However I will agree when you say that some (select) countries have been permitted to obtain nuclear weapons, Israel, India and Pakistan are three that jump immediatly to mind.

So we already have agreement from everybody that there will be no nuclear weapons proliferation from non-nuclear countries, particularly those countries that the UN security council permanent members decide aren't allowed. (Read: Iran)

Also, I am firmly of the opinion that Iran would be turned into a (possibly glowing) smouldering wreck if they continue to try to obtain a nuclear arsenal and I believe that it will be an Israeli strike that prevents Iran from EVER obtaining such weapons.

[RVF500]

Given that the present Iranian leaders public wish is to eradicate Isreal from the face of the earth it is understandable that the world at large is keen for Iran not to become a nuclear armed power. Nor would it be entirely hard to understand if they found themselves on the end of an Isreali pre-emptive strike.

The difference is that the Isrealis might just listen to sense rather than risk a wider conflagration. I'm not so convinced that the Iranian leadership would want to listen to anything other than the sound of Isreal disappearing under a mushroom cloud. They would probably be happy at writing off the colateral damage to the Palestinians and other surrounding countries by telling themselves that as god muslims they will be going staight to paradise as martyrs. Not that they would believe it themselves as I am equally convinced that the leadership are cynical and narrow minded political technicians hiding behind a veil of religious spirituality.

[iranu]

A nuclear armed Iran would change the entire balance of power within the middle east. It would be used as a big stick to get the non-nuclear arab states to toe an Iranian line. This certainly would not bode well for peace in the middle east, the supply of the worlds oil and the safety of Israel.

People often claim that Iran has a right to nuclear arms because India, Pakistan and Israel have them, however, not one of those nations has said they want to wipe another nation from the face of the earth. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad believes that an apocolypse will bring the Mahdi (the saviour of Islam, who will appear at the End of Days.) and looks like he would like to be the one that does this. He's a religious nutter, allowing him the bomb is akin to giving loaded guns to children.

[CK1]

I'm in two minds here. On the one side I beleive the Iran will never acquire nuclear technology as the rest of the world and more importantly Israel will never allow it.

On the other side, taking a more philosophical view, maybe everyone who can develop nuclear technology should be able to. After all, if we as a species cannot develop to the next stage of growth, involving such things as co-operation, sharing, and responsibility then maybe we should wipe ourselves out. Otherwise there will never be a future for humanity other than that of fear and war (maybe I'm a utopian at heart).

Another factor of Iran developing nuclear technology is that they are probably just as likely to use it against other muslim nations as they are against the west (which I'll come to later). The Middle East is hardly a stable region and this doesn't always involve Israel. The Iran - Iraq war, Syria occupying Lebanon, Iraq invading Kuwait. It seems that all these muslim nations hate each other as much as they hate the west. In fact the only thing they ever agree on is hating Israel and the west!

Even if Iran develops nuclear weapons, do they yet have a delivery mechanism to reach Europe or the US? I'm not sure about their inventory but my guess would be no, after all Iran wouldn't gain anything by declaring war with Europe and would have everything to lose. The main issue I would imagine is that of a group of people taking the bomb by hand to the desired location and then detonating.

In any of the above cases I am of the opinion that the next 10-20 years are going to be very interesting.

[pp05]

Iran won't be attacked anytime soon. Syria is the more likely next target unless it can make some allies quickly.

But whatever ones views about nuclear weapon one fact stands loud and clear: U.S is the only country... ONLY country in world with 1800 active (1 second.. lets emphasize) ACTIVE NUKES which can hit targets within 15 mins anywhere in the world. They are now developing weapons that can penetrate bunkers. If you're a country and your name is not U.S should you be worried? hell yes..

[RVF500]

Don't forget that Britain, China and Russia (not sure about France) all have a ballistic weapons capability within their submarine arm. Essentially one of these parked off your coast has the same strike capability. The yanks may have 1800 but unless they turn the globe into an ashtray then they are likely to get some back. To be fair I don't think even teh Us is irresponsible enough to initiate a pre-emptive strike on anyone. They get enough flak when one of their bombs go astray.

Now the Isrealis on the other hand; might. There is a marked difference there though. They are a small country with the very real threat of their neighbours having a history of trying to remove them from existance. If one of those neighbours gets the ability to do that at the press of a button. Well, I wouldn't want to be sitting too close to the button pusher as it will be on top of the Isreali targeting list. Having said that, when Iraq was trying to develope nukes the Isrealis went in uninvited and demolished the research facilities. That's more likely to be their response if the Iranians try to develope weapons.

As CK1 pointed out. The Iranians have yet to develope a delivery system. Though the potential for small weapons delivered by terrorists is always a possibility. As an aside. The Indians and Pakistanis only have short range systems designed to reach targets in each others countries. I happened to be in Mumbai in 2002-03 when they were busy pointing their nuclear arsenals at each other and threatening to 'light the fuse'. It was a novel experience.

[iranu]

Iran does have an effective delivery system. It is cabable of hitting Southern Europe. Two linkys from a quick google.

http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1163352004

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/missiles-04zzl.html

[RVF500]

I knew that Iran had been hammered by Iraq with Scuds without the ability to respond in kind. Obviously they have been bsy since then.

Interestingly Isreal seems to be investing in anti-missile technology and information gathering. Which I think speaks loudly for the attitudes of the two countries. Personally I think allowing the present regime in Iran to pursue uranium enrichment is akin to asking the mice to guard the cheese.

[wilsonian]

My GF is half iranian with her father still living over there (has a computer company set up over there) ANYWAY...

The reason for my post is two things. One the UK and europe would NOT risk going to war with Iran - UK have to many political links with iran and does get a majority of oil from them. Also Iran isn't armed like Iraq (IE out dated russian equipment) they have decent gear - Ex US /UK equipment.

Their airforce is roughly the same size as the UK's and it's fighting strength is more equal to ours.

The second reason behind my post is Iran is in the same posistion as the US - both have nutters at the wheel! Many people in Iran are wondering how he's come to power (Iran big cheese not Bush) It's clear that the "faults" of mad men leading countries haven't been learned!