Honda UK Factory - will close in 2021

[Saracen999]

Why are they closing this, and not the other factories they have in Europe? There's been a lot of companies closing facilities and shedding jobs that are 'DEFINITELY NOTHING TO DO WITH BREXIT, RIGHT?', but whilst not the whole cause, may actually be a large part of the decision making process.

Why not other plants? Dunno. I wasn't in their boardroom at decision time.

I could speculate though.

First speculation .... it's about planning for new model production, and Swindon was potentially the site for a model now more productively sited in Japan due to technology changes.

Speculation two .... watch this space. They aren't finished with closures?

What's the point in speculating. Honda have said, in briad terms, why they did, and stated explicitly, that it wasn't to do with Brexit.

[Smudger]

See, you say that everyone's rushing to blame brexit, and some are, but there is also a rush to say 'it's not cos of Brexit' in the same amount.

Dyson moves to Singapore "not cos of brexit, definitely a coincidence that Singapore has signed an FTA with Europe"
Ford boss: "No-deal Brexit would be disastrous"
Brexiteers, Lord Digby wibbly-wobbly, Dave from down the pub who once worked in a dealer: "What does he know? I'm sure it'll all be fine".
Interested party: "What are you basing your assertion on?"
Brexiteers, etc "Project fear!!!! I'm not answering you."

[Saracen999]

Might make it a good time to scare a "rescue package" out of the government to sweeten them to stay?

Point taken, and I acknowledge a fellow nember of the Cynic's Society. Well met, Brother Dances.

Truthfully, I doubt there's anything in that.

Firstly, that'd happen largely behind closed doors. Secondly yeah, they may hint publicly to ratchet up pressure, but not announce a closure decision. Or rather, I think it unlikely.

Thirdly ....I think this is just too big, too strategic, if we take their reasoning as honest, and I think it is.

There are, in my view, really BIG shake-ups coming in the car market in near devades. Not just the pivot to electric, but a potential pivot away from personal vehicles at all.

Even now, I know people that have given up owning a car, and thereby given up insurance costs, depreciation, setrvicing, etc. Instead, when they want to go somewhere, they get a csb, call an Uber (other brands are available) or, for longer durations, hire a car. When you run the numbers, for many people there's a convincing case, though obviously not for everybody.

If yiu massively scale up the numbers and locations of Uber, et.al. and the add in automated driving systems, there's a very good chance that in 20 or 30 years, personal transport provision will look VERY different! and I think we're on the start of that change now.

It has the potential to be the kind of disrupter that heavy industrial diesel engines were to cooton mills .... it's no longer so essential to be by fast-flowing water to power the machines. There are countless examples, and we're at the start of another one. IMHO, of course.

[Saracen999]

See, you say that everyone's rushing to blame brexit, and some are, but there is also a rush to say 'it's not cos of Brexit' in the same amount.

Dyson moves to Singapore "not cos of brexit, definitely a coincidence that Singapore has signed an FTA with Europe"
Ford boss: "No-deal Brexit would be disastrous"
Brexiteers, Lord Digby wibbly-wobbly, Dave from down the pub who once worked in a dealer: "What does he know? I'm sure it'll all be fine".
Interested party: "What are you basing your assertion on?"
Brexiteers, etc "Project fear!!!! I'm not answering you."

No, I didn't say everyone is blaming Brexit. Some are querying if it might be, or partly be. That wasn't what I commented on.

As for Project Fear, I've made this point over and again, but I'll do it once more.

The economic impact of Brexit is complicated. There WILL be a downside, and anybody with a balanced view will accept that. But there is also, certainly medium and long term, an upside. It'd be nice if more avidly pro-Remainers accepted that, too.

Project Fear, as far as I'm concerned, the real project, was government projections of foom and gloom, presented in such a way as to imply certainty in the disaster. Remember Osborne and his "emergency budget", right after the referendum if we voted Leave? Utter drivel.

Remember the Treasury forecasts pretending to tell us, to a few pounds, how much worse off we'll all be in 2035. Any self-respecting economist will tell you just how fatuous presenting such a forecast, 18 years into the future, as some sort of fact, actually is. It is outright ludicrous.

What about the half million extra unemployed following a Leave vote? And what's happened? Yup, unemployment down, now to about 4%, employment at record levels and before someone says 'zero hours', figures out today show zero hour contracts falling by tens of thousands and full-time jobs increasing by a like amount.

Oh, and average wages up 3.4% in the year, while inflation running at just under 2%.

Does that mean the economy is perfect? Hell, no. We still have major issues, not least productivity and, yes, Brexit uncertainty is very likely having an impact on investment which has an impact on productivity.

So no, not all negative effects are project fear. Some genuinely are Brexit-related .... like investment. But nor are all bad news diwn to Brexit.

And as for investment, let ne ask you this .... is uncertainty causing investment decisions to be cancelled or merely postponed under the fog of uncertainty clears?

I can give you the answer. Some of both. Some will have made long term decisions now, and some will be biding their time. It's also very possible that some investments will happen because we're out of the EU and able to trade more widely with RotW.

But I devy anyone, anyone, to quantify any of those with a straight face.

[spacein_vader]

Well, with Honda out of the picture, it opens up as much as 2.5% of market share to the existing (roughly) 37% of market share that VAG and other German brands already enjoy... plus it opens up Junction 5 of the M4 if any brands want their name in red flowers around the roundabout.

So yeah, there is a little bit of potential benefit, but given that other brands will be competing for it too, there's nothing absolutely direct. Nissan were outselling Honda 3:1, with the Juke beating the H-RV 6:1 in 2017.

Guess it depends if the other Japanese brands follow Honda... and we Englandters do seem to love oür Cherman car brandz viz zee stüpidly bright LED headlightzen on zem!

They're not stopping selling the cars here, just building them. I don't think that'll alter their market share much if any. One of our cars is a Honda, I've no idea if it was built in Swindon or Japan and I don't care.

Why not other plants? Dunno. I wasn't in their boardroom at decision time.

I could speculate though.

First speculation .... it's about planning for new model production, and Swindon was potentially the site for a model now more productively sited in Japan due to technology changes.

Speculation two .... watch this space. They aren't finished with closures?

What's the point in speculating. Honda have said, in briad terms, why they did, and stated explicitly, that it wasn't to do with Brexit.

Hondas other European plants only make parts, they don't assemble vehicles. That may have an impact as while a tariff free deal with the EU might make it economical to build the cars in Japan and ship them here the same may not be true of all the parts individually.

[Zak33]

here is some meat to the bones

Swindon was designed to make nearly 1/4 million cars per year. But it's never needed too, making 125k ish per year. Sometimes it got to 150k
European cars are a bit different to American and Eastern cars, and we have them set up differently. In 2008 /09 when the world turned upside down, they didn't spend much on long term EU investments, seeing that China/India/USA would bounce back faster. They were right too in lots of ways.

But here's the bitch... the utter kick in the knackers from my view point.
Swindon is a properly flexbile factory- it can, and has historically, made loads of different car ranges, from Jazz to Accord, CRVs and Civics....& it does that by having lots of very effective staff, trained well and seriously adaptable...

and it's therefore not as automated as the other factories in the world
it literally has too many people, and not enough robots

And in honesty, while I LOVE Honda.. they're not growing where the other brands are ...well...not in Europe anyway.

Gutted

[Ttaskmaster]

They're not stopping selling the cars here, just building them. I don't think that'll alter their market share much if any. One of our cars is a Honda, I've no idea if it was built in Swindon or Japan and I don't care.

If it falls apart and clunks around like it was made on a Friday afternoon by some lazy Brit, it was probably made in Swindon. We have a Honda too...

Making them not here means they don't have to pay British workers decent British wages, meaning they make more money. This could mean cheaper Hondas, which would increase their market a bit... but it depends on how much they cost us to import post-Brexit, which could mean we stop buying Hondas altogether.

[badass]

here is some meat to the bones

Swindon was designed to make nearly 1/4 million cars per year. But it's never needed too, making 125k ish per year. Sometimes it got to 150k
European cars are a bit different to American and Eastern cars, and we have them set up differently. In 2008 /09 when the world turned upside down, they didn't spend much on long term EU investments, seeing that China/India/USA would bounce back faster. They were right too in lots of ways.

But here's the bitch... the utter kick in the knackers from my view point.
Swindon is a properly flexbile factory- it can, and has historically, made loads of different car ranges, from Jazz to Accord, CRVs and Civics....& it does that by having lots of very effective staff, trained well and seriously adaptable...

and it's therefore not as automated as the other factories in the world
it literally has too many people, and not enough robots

And in honesty, while I LOVE Honda.. they're not growing where the other brands are ...well...not in Europe anyway.

Gutted

I.e. this is exactly what happens when you don't invest enough in automation - unfortunately making some jobs redundant. Now instead of a steady of trickle of slowly more highly skilled (and redeploy-able to other employers) in this country being lost very slowly and in a controlled way, we have a redundancy bomb hit Swindon plus with their supply chain.

[spacein_vader]

If it falls apart and clunks around like it was made on a Friday afternoon by some lazy Brit, it was probably made in Swindon. We have a Honda too...

Making them not here means they don't have to pay British workers decent British wages, meaning they make more money. This could mean cheaper Hondas, which would increase their market a bit... but it depends on how much they cost us to import post-Brexit, which could mean we stop buying Hondas altogether.

Are Japanese car workers much cheaper than Brits?

Having googled my Jazz is a mk2 made in Japan, production moved to Swindon about 6 months after mine was made. As long as its well made I don't really care where.

[Ttaskmaster]

Are Japanese car workers much cheaper than Brits?

Well....
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-ne...y-workers-earn

[Zak33]

Are Japanese car workers much cheaper than Brits?

Having googled my Jazz is a mk2 made in Japan, production moved to Swindon about 6 months after mine was made. As long as its well made I don't really care where.

You don't care no. But the people who work there care.. and so do the supply chain companies who supply Honda.
If we make cars here, we sell them abroad and it's good for our country.
If we have to buy them in, and dont make them, we have to buy them in.

Nationally... we need to make some things. It cant all be service sector.

[spacein_vader]

Well....
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-ne...y-workers-earn

So if I'm reading that right the answer is not really.

You don't care no. But the people who work there care.. and so do the supply chain companies who supply Honda.
If we make cars here, we sell them abroad and it's good for our country.
If we have to buy them in, and dont make them, we have to buy them in.

Nationally... we need to make some things. It cant all be service sector.

I don't disagree with that. What I disagree with is that many people would base their purchasing decision on where a car was built. I'm sure some do but I doubt its many.

As with any product price, quality and support factor a long way before country of origin. If we want British manufacturing to succeed its on those basis we need to compete, not just sticking a union flag on it and hoping that'll be enough.

[Saracen999]

So if I'm reading that right the answer is not really.


I don't disagree with that. What I disagree with is that many people would base their purchasing decision on where a car was built. I'm sure some do but I doubt its many.

As with any product price, quality and support factor a long way before country of origin. If we want British manufacturing to succeed its on those basis we need to compete, not just sticking a union flag on it and hoping that'll be enough.

I agree on product price, quality and support (though not in that order, as I put quality first) but for me, given the Brexit process, country of origin is fundamental to me. But it's not about whether Honda/Toyota etc make their cars here ir in Japan, though I'd prefer here. It's about breaking the habit of most of my life and no longer buying EU-made cars and, more specifically German-made. Right now, I have three, all German. Never again.

But you said "many" people. On that, dunno. You're probably right. But I have blacklisted EU-made cars .... and anything else I can think of, that I can get elsewhere. For that matter, holidaying in the EU is gone, too, and at least for Italy and Ireland, I'll miss that 'cos I love both. Oh well. I'll have to explore some new places. New Zealand appeals and so far, never made it there. Also, spent enough time in Japan to know I haven't spent enough time there. I'll miss Italy and Ireland but it'll encourage me to broaden my horizons a bit more.

How many will treat country of origin as a priority? I don't know and haven't seen any polls, but I do know a few personally that are like-minded on that.

[Ttaskmaster]

So if I'm reading that right the answer is not really.

Yes and no.
Japan's published average rate is £12ph compared to the UK's £19... Japan offers more in terms of benefits packages and bonuses, but they're all quite variable and likely not equal across the industry, whereas the UK is a bit more standard and consistent especially in terms of actual money paid.

It also depends what the cost of living is. I understand Japan is very expensive by comparison and I imagine things like this affect how much the company pays/keeps/offsets/book-cooks in terms of all the taxation, PAYE and whatever else.

I don't disagree with that. What I disagree with is that many people would base their purchasing decision on where a car was built.

Based on that, they would, albeit indirectly - Price usually comes first, but this will be the more expensive option precisely because it's foreign-made. Possibly even more expensive because we're one of the few countries driving on the right side of the road and it means they have to make the cars properly!

Oh well. I'll have to explore some new places. New Zealand appeals and so far, never made it there.

Just go to Scotland. I have it on 'very good authority' that everywhere else amazing in the world looks just like Scotland, anyway...

[TeePee]

Just go to Scotland. I have it on 'very good authority' that everywhere else amazing in the world looks just like Scotland, anyway...

This is actually true... I've traveled a lot, from the Canadian wilderness to the foothills of the Himalayas, and yes, they all look like Scotland. Only more vertical. Scotland is kind of short. Not Scottish people, mind, although they also turn up all over the place. Never met a group of people so desperate to leave, and never worked out why.

[Jonatron]

This is actually true... I've traveled a lot, from the Canadian wilderness to the foothills of the Himalayas, and yes, they all look like Scotland. Only more vertical. Scotland is kind of short. Not Scottish people, mind, although they also turn up all over the place. Never met a group of people so desperate to leave, and never worked out why.

Every time I go to scotland it's raining most of the time.

More on topic: There are more and more hybrids and electric cars now. My theory is that if the UK made more batteries, the UK would be more attractive for manufacturing things containing batteries.