house prices drop by over 50% and inflation out of control
house prices drop by over 30-40% and inflation very high
house prices drop by over 20-30% and inflation high
much the same as mid 1990s, not too much to worry about
Things will remain stable.
Growth will continue, its all scaremongering.
The actual definition of a recession is an Economic downturn of 3 months. However, to effectively measure an economic downturn you need at least 3 months to measure it and be able to define it as a recession. Therefore, if there is a recession then we have already been in it for 6 months!
Doesn't the media love a good crisis for us all to worry about? I think the old saying 'wait and see' is important for me at the moment.
The poll is odd - you should be able to select multiple options.
I predict high inflation, modest house price falls, but still growth.
yep only 10 options so i just stuck with a few general. the poll is just for a taster, and the thread for the nitty gritty.
i think the only thing stoppng the house price crash from being faster at the moment is peoples blind optimism and faith.
i predict a riot. iiiiiiii predict a riot.
Yes, and so prices will drop, since you've removed the demand side of the equation.Originally Posted by TheAnimus
Yes, so the price of a "typical first time buyer property" will fall more than other types of home.Those worst effected will be those who have little cash, and little equity. Normally first time buyers.
Yes, but all else being equal, paying back 125k will take about half as long as paying back 250k. And the person who owes £125k will suffer a lot less if interest rates go up, as they have done recently.Think of it this way, 2 years ago it was easy to get the "graduate" mortgage deals of 115% equity, lending upto 5 and even 6 times your combined basic salary. So the average graduate couple could afford almost 250k
Now they'd be hard pressed to find 85% at 4 times for the same rate. This means they could only afford to borrow 125k.
Key thing here, for effectively the same monthly payments.
Erm, what? If people can't afford to buy a home now, they stand more of a chance when prices drop whether or not they are competing with cash rich speculators- which in any case they won't be, for reasons I will come to.Now if your a cash buyer, in the privileged posisition of been able to do what in all honesty i might well do in 3/4 years, buying good properties, in nice areas for buy to let. Then i think its a *tad* unfair to prey for a down turn, this is peoples homes not common stock.
This is one of the biggest piles of utter *******s I've ever read. So, thanks to a paradigm shift, people on or below the average income will now be priced out of the market forever will they?I dont think you get what i mean about house prices vrs affordability.
If your in the N% of the population who can't afford a house before a crash, guess what, after a crash your still in the N% who can't. Thats how supply and demand works. The only way out of this is if your cash rich and un-encumbered. Thats it.
If property prices crash and become really cheap, the cash rich will buy them. Now if your cash rich you can make a tidy sum at the expense of others, but given that these are homes, not equities i'd personally consider that a bit mean.
I don't often bust these out, but:
What total, total crap. For a start, there are going to be almost no 'cash rich buyers' after a couple of years of recession and falling house prices. Of the current breed of BTL landlords, only those who cashed out at the top will be in a position to buy back in in any meaningful way at the bottom- and I haven't heard of many BTLers doing that, since it was different this time and prices were never going to drop.
As for the city boy spraying his bonus cash about snapping up properties as an investment, there are two resons why that's not a factor: 1) because in a recession the number and amount of bonuses sprayed around will reduce drastically, and 2) property won't be seen as a good investment. The vast majority of city workers aren't actually any smarter than average, and just follow the herd. If the herd says property is a poor investment, they'll stay away.
After the last property crash bottomed out in 1996 there was a period of at least 3 or 4 years when prices rose gently and people on an average wage had every chance of buying a decent family house. If what you say about 'the cash rich' keeping FTBs out of the market is true, then presumably prices are going to fall for a few years before instantly shooting back up as 'the cash rich' all pile back in en masse? Pretty unlikely, I'd say.
Well he won't be paying any stamp duty will he, so it's hard to see how fees and taxes are going to end up at 10K?
Because he could have afforded the repayment when interest rates were low, but he wouldn't have been able to afford them once rates rose. And, in addition, he's still got to pay back 100 grand, which takes a long time when you're on a low income. Paying back 50 grand will, all else being equal, take half as long.during the stupid years of the easy credit you could of bought a house worth almost 100k, and afforded the repayment.
So why do you need prices to fall so much?
To suggest that borrowing a lot for a house at low interest rates is functionally equivalent to borrowing a lot less at substantially higher rates is ridiculous. At the end of the day the idea of a mortgage- and of owning your own home instead of renting it- is that you eventually pay off the mortgage and live (barring taxes, ground rent etc.) for free. And if you borrow twice as much money, that's going to take about twice as long.
Yes, that would indeed have less of an impact on the economy, but it's wishful thinking. The market is on the way down, and the only thing to do now is buckle your seatbeltIdealy we'd see them be nice and stagnant, this would be enough to discorage the buy to let empiring (incoraged by low tax perhaps?) and it would have less of an effect on the economy..
rave, you've been saying the sky is going to fall in for ages, you can't then turn round years later with any authority and say see i was right.
Now the simple fact is its about affordability. The VAST majority of first time buyers buy with little cash. As such what they can afford is determined by what mortgages are available. I don't see how you can pretend this point doesn't exist. This is why house prices where able to rise so much.
Ok, we will try this once again. People who are cash rich, can afford to buy now. People who aren't can't.This is one of the biggest piles of utter *******s I've ever read. So, thanks to a paradigm shift, people on or below the average income will now be priced out of the market forever will they?
Now, assuming there is still some demand for property in 2 years time, which enless we see death/migration i cant see it tapering off (in london at least) then house prices will fall based on what people can afford. Theres a difference here between people wanting an investment whilst running with the bulls, and someone wanting a nice place to live competing against people who also want the nice place to live in.
Now, this is my point which you really don't seam to be getting, enless your cash rich, if a hosue price falls to 50k from 80k you will ONLY be able to afford it if the people who where pricing you out last time, don't price you out this time. Why would that happen?
This is why i think preying for a house price slump is a little like cutting of ones noise to spite the face.
Now smililes asside, how can you argue against that?
What is a 'problem' is that people before who where poor where been given mortgages, this helped drive up the prices because more people where competeting, but in some ways helped to de-skew the playing feild. You can't begin to argue that allowing someone to choose to pay for a property over 30 years dosen't HELP them get on the ladder.
Now these people will be the worst of the worst, whilst people like me who already own some property are seen as a greatly reduced risk.
As for the fees, buy a flat, pay for searches, £700 for the property inspection report, then theres the fun of the freehold, pay for the freehold, pay for the legal transfer of the freehold pay for the investigation of the freehold company and validation of the books. Now theres the upfront screw you first time buyer fee to get a good rate on your mortgage (which normally are worth paying if you've got the cash, as you do save it in intrest enless you've got good investment alternatives), right down to the money transfer fees.
Of course having bought a flat i'd have no idea how these fees all very easily add up. Granted you can cut some corners (not investigate freehold) but i wouldn't like too!
throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)
i just hope they impose some massive tax for second home owners! like they match the price of the sale with an equal tax bill.
Again your jealousy for those who actually have money seems to be coming through. What about those people who work in one place but family live in another?
Do you want the rental market to implode so people have nowhere to live if they cannot afford to buy?
Not around too often!
i dont know what your defending here, is it your god given right to be the lord of the mannor?
and its not jealousy its hatred.. not for people with lots of money but for people who think they some how NEED 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x 7x 8x more than thier neighbors.
and as for people who work away from home, it would'nt be hard to impliment some sceme to accomodate them. your clutching at straws, and finding excuses for the inexcusable.
and yes i do want the rental market to implode and all buy to let people to lose their money because their greedy, greedy, greedy people.
Ok. I'll start by taking all your money off you, your too greedy.
Also those people who (like me until i bought) found it very difficult to find a rental property, in a nice area, on budget, should also be condemed for their greed?
Its capitalisim baby, and without people who where willing to work harder than the average bear, to accumulate more wealth than average, then we'd all be in the dark ages still.
throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)
yep my friend capialisim that is the cause of war, global warming, crime.. and and that will ultimatley send us back to the dark ages.
There was crime even in cultures that didn't have a concept of ownership (Native americans)yep my friend capialisim that is the cause of war, global warming, crime.. and and that will ultimatley send us back to the dark ages.
Also wars.
And as for global warming, capitalism provides an easy solution, no matter how un-palatable to poltitions and the like it may be.
Its also quite fair in a society where education is made available to all and prejudiced is prevented.
throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)
i didnt say it was the only cause, of wars n crime, but it is a big one.
and
how is it fair, when those who want to be greedy get ahead.. and those who dont want to be greedy get left behind?
Ah, thats because as a society we've decided our goal is to go forwards.
Those who don't help need to be punished.
throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)
lol
but you must agree that the gap between rich and poor is far too big and the gap should be a lot smaller? or do you think that it should be higher?
I think in many cases in this country it should be a lot higher.
when you see in the news announcements like yesterdays about the 2 million on benefits who will be made to work after 2 years, i don't think i'm allone in the perception that there are too many people who abuse the system. I was flabberghasted by someone on TV, i think it was on the ch4 news who was saying they wouldn't take this job because its beneith them! I paid for my matrox millenium II by cleaning plates in a kitchen, i didn't just wake up to find someone had arrange a 6 figure job for me..... utter *****.
this really anoys me, and of course the easy thing is to widen the poverty gap between those on state benefits and those working. So yes, i'm actually in favour in many ways of increasing the poverty gap.
But at the same time i think if we look at it globally without been harsh we really dont give a flying fornicatino about the poor, so much so we'll buy food out of their mouths to use as oil, or waste precious argigal land by farming with organic and other such rediculuas ideas.
throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
