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Well, it's just a view on psychology, but I think the mood for a change has taken over from any perceived lack of gravitas.Originally Posted by santa claus
It's only an opinion, of course, but I think people will put up with just so much, and then the rot sets in permanently. And personally, I think Brown has screwed up in people's eyes far too often to be credible any more. I think people, or at least enough people, are just fed up with him and (though to a lesser extent) wit the rest of Labour.
Brown, repeatedly, has said he (they) need to "listen". But he shows no obvious signs of dong so. And, in my view, I think people (or,as I said, enough people) have just stopped listening to him. I don't think it much matters what he does, and what Labour say. The damage is done.
However, as the old saying goes, a week (let alone 7 months) is a long time in politics. My personal expectation (and its just an expectation) is that the Tories will be the next government unless they do something to screw it up. I don't think Labour can win it back, but the Tories could still blow it. I also don't think Cameron will screw up .... but I'm not quite so sure about Osborne.
I also think there's a fundamental tendency in human nature in play. People get bored with what they know, and rightly or wrongly, then tend to forget the good bits and blame the incumbent for the bad bits. The last Tory regime was an exception to a long-established trend that governments rarely got more than a couple of terms, and it was probably a boost from the Falklands that led to then staying in power as long as they did. New Labour benefited from a backlash against that, and against huge Tory unpopularity but before any Labour enthusiasts crow too much about that unpopularity, they ought to consider that the Tories were popular enough to keep getting elected despite some hugely unpopular policies, and the hard times we went through.
In large part, what cooked the Tories goose was Maggie getting perceived as getting rather above herself, and Major being perceived as a bit ineffectual. In other words, they survived bad times and largely, were finished off by personalities and personal unpopularity. Resonating much with today?
I think people have just had enough, and want a change. And, if I were a betting man (which I'm not), I'd put a good chunk of cash on Cameron moving into Downing Street in May next year.
As for gravitas, Brown keeps going on about his much-vaunted experience versus Tory inexperience, but I'd point out that he was totally inexperienced in government when he got in, yet he has a very high opinion of his performance in the job, despite that inexperience. So by his own claimed example, it can't be that much of a hindrance.
And if we were to take the attitude that we only elect people with experience, he'd never have got the chance, and we'd be perpetually stuck with the incumbents when we made the decision to always go for experience. And, by the way, I'm not at all convinced that people see Brown as having much gravitas either. After all, after all his self-publicity about "abolishing boom and bust", and his "prudence", we've all been treated to an exquisitely vivid demonstration of just how big a crock of wotnot that proved to be, build on a rickety foundation of personal and government debt. Just how much gravitas does running the economy for 10 years, and it turning out to have been run into the ground give you?
Nor does Brown's stupendous inabililty to own up to mistakes do him any favours. abolishing the 10p tax band and pretending in the face of the blindingly obvious that it didn't clobber some of the very lowest paid, and having to be forced kicking and screaming denials, into doing something about it. That was merely one of the more classic reminders that New Labour is NOT the same as old Labour, and that many of the philosophical differences between them and the Tories don't exist.
Brown's apparent personal indecision also doesn't help him. People know that we. the people, have had no say in him being Prime Minister and that outside of his own constituency, none of us have had a chance to vote for him or give him a mandate to govern. We're also aware that he had an opportunity for an election right after he took over, that he planned for it and let his staff go around briefing for it, and then bottled it ... and how he must be regretting that.
The list of things that add up to Brown just not appearing to cut the mustard just go on and on and on. And I think people have made up their mind about him.
Nah, Santa, I'm not convinced the gravitas thing plays in Brown's favour. Nor, for that matter, his partners in crime in the government. I think the gravitas factor for Brown is heavily overstated, and that the "plausible" new boy, full of either charm or smarm depending on your perspective, has more appeal that Brown supposed gravitas, simply because he's change.
The old adage about better the devil you know doesn't, in my view, hold water. The problem is that people have no had a long, hard look at the devil they do know and decided they don't like what they see. labour might have stood a chance if they'd dumped Brown a few months ago, but I think that now, it's too late. Even if someone successfully stuck the political knife into Brown (and I don't see anyone with the appetite for doing it), and even if the party rules and time frame made it practical (and it's barely so) I think the electorate would see it for exactly what it is at this point, which is a cynical bit of political manipulation by a desperate party, and I don't think they'd either forgive Labour for it or let it work. And I think the Labour Cabinet know that. They might get a bit of a boost from it, but I think the die is well and truly cast. I guess we'll find out which of us is right isn a few months.
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