What do the election results really mean?

[Saracen]

So what do they mean?

Labour have had a good kicking. A really good kicking. But in the scheme of things, what does it mean?

Firstly, for all the hoohaw, a handful of councils have changed hands. Yeah, a few hundred councillors have lost their seats and a few hundred different ones gained them, but in most places, it didn't affect overall control. Secondly, this election was only a fairly small part of the total local councils. So in terms of actual on-the-ground differences, nothing has changed over who runs what for almost all of us .... except London.

Third, people don't necessarily vote the same way in a General Election. It's safe to say that there's been at least an element of tactical and protest voting. Also, signs are that a good percentage of core Labour voters didn't bother to vote. They may be cheesed off enough to do that at a few local elections, but that's a far cry from predicting they'll do it for a General Election .... if the result might be five years of Cameron running UK Ltd.

On the other hand, it's the worst Labour result in local elections for at least 40 years (and the relevant statistics weren't accurately recorded in the '60s so it may be longer than that. And when councils that have been Labour since before Thatcher became PM turn Tory, it's a VERY clear message about how a good proportion of Labour's core voters view current performance.

And if the percentage of the vote in the locals were extrapolated nationally and applied to a General Election, we'd have a Tory government with a very credible working majority of about 100 (according to the BBC).


So to me, two things come out of this. It's a very clear electoral warning short, and two challenges have been issued :-

1) To Brown and Labour - buck your ideas up. You cannot, as you have in the past, sit there smugly and gloat, arrogantly assuming that your position is unassailable and that the Tories are a political washout. They are a threat. You now have a leader regarded by many as an ineffectual ditherer who, far from being the magician of a Chancellor you've been boasting of for 11 years is actually the architect of a good percentage of our current woes, either by commission or omission.


2) To Cameron and the Tories - the time is approaching rapidly where you are not going to be able to exist in something close to a political vacuum. It's all very well making a strategic decision to hold off on many policy platforms while building the party machine, but before much longer, you have to present a wide-ranging and complete, and coherent, policy spread to the electorate. And David .... it needs to start NOW. You need to start looking less like a glib and personable PR exec, and more like a substantive and credible statesman. After Blair, pizazz and a nice smile is not going to be enough.


So back to my original question - what's changed?

Well, not much, really .... except the Mayor of London. And the fact that Labour have had the clearest warning they're going to get that come the next General Election, they are going to have a REAL fight on their hands for the first time in 15 years or so.

So, Gordon, when you say your going to "listen" to us, unlike last time (when you got the PMs job) damn well mean it!

Because if you don't, there's a VERY real chance that come the General Election, you're going to get your party booted out. And if that happens, your much-boasted-of reputation as a chancellor is going to be replaced as one of being the biggest Labour Prime Ministerial disaster in about 40 years ..... if not ever.

[Mithrandir]

Personally I think Gordon Brown is a terrible leader/Prime Minister. I think he should stick to working out the budget.

Since he's been in No.10 he's been keeping a low profile and not shown much confidence as a leader should.

Anyhow, it's seems the Labour era is coming to an end and a new cycle begins with another party. Unless of course some huge things happen over the next year or two.

[Saracen]

Personally I think Gordon Brown is a terrible leader/Prime Minister. I think he should stick to working out the budget.

Personally, I think much of his reputation as Chancellor has been smoke and mirrors.

It's easy for a Chancellor to do well when the economy, both nationally and (broadly speaking) internationally, are doing well.

It's a bit like running a household. When both adults are working and income is comfortably in excess of outgoings, running the budget is a doddle and you can comfortably afford luxuries.

But, when things turn sour and perhaps one partner is ill or out of work, and you find income is no longer comfortably exceeding expenditure, THEN you find out just how well the household budget has been run in the past.

And when you find out that you've been living above your means, that you not only have not been saving while times were good so you have no nest-egg to fall back on, but in fact, some of those luxuries were paid for by debt, and that moreover, your partner has taken out a few hidden loans and has a couple of credit cards you didn't know about (but you now have to repay the balances on), then that household management that looked good because of the lifestyle you were living no longer looks so competent or .... erm .... "prudent", does it?

[SiM]

Good post... What is BJ planning for London? The question is, will the changes he promised happen? Time will tell...

[MadduckUK]

Time will tell...

Time will tell... Sooner or later, time will tell..

[iranu]

I think you've answered your own questions really. There is always a time in a government's life when the people get royally peeved with it for whatever reason (usually economics) and we have reached that time. The worm is turning. Socialists, no matter how they present themselves always end up returning to form and that is tax and spend. This is grossly inefficient and in the end people realise they are not getting value for money. That time is now and I think that they are doubly annoyed that we have lived through a boom time and not really seen anything for it and have nothing as a cushion for the troublesome times ahead. Couple it with a man that makes John Major look colourful and there you have it. I think if it had been known that sly old John had been boffing Edwina then he might have actually had a better ride, so to speak .

Whilst I despise Bliar, you have to hand it to the sociopath, he knew when to jump ship without any of the brown and smelly stuff sticking to him so he can continue to make his cash and gain influence elsewhere.

[Saracen]

Some pundit on Newsnight tonight was referring to Brown as a very bad politician. And your comment, iranu, about Blair's timing in jumping ship may well underline just how slick a politician Blair was... especially in contrast to Brown. It seems to me that Blair handed Brown something of a poison chalice ..... and numpty Brown not only took it but had been gagging for it for years. Just maybe his political ambition blinded him to what he was taking .... or he wouldn't have looked so smug when he got the job. And boy, did he look smug for a while.

But he doesn't look quite so smug now. In fact, he looks a bit like I'd feel if I took a bite out of an apple and just as I swallowed it, I felt something crawling out of it. Like ..... oooops.

But to be a bit more serious, Brown's entire style since taking over, and his abysmally inept handling of the election that never was, the mindbogglingly stupid way the 10p tax band thing was done, and a whole host of poorly handled things (missing data disks, party funding scandals, the avoidance of treaty-signing ceremonies and so forth) leave me (and a lot of other people, it seems) with the very clear impression that Brown just doesn't have what it takes to be PM. He's perhaps a fine number 2, and certainly a technician, but a leader? I'm not seeing it.

[Blitzen]

These local elections have historically had no baring at all on the following General Elections.

However, this is now a perfect opportunity for the Labour Party to have a vote of 'no confidence' in Gordon Brown and elect a new leader rather than be lumbered with one.

I for one, am glad the local elections went badly as it will give the labour party a badly needed reality check.

As much as Brown has arsed it up, i still dont want to live under the Tories.

[Skii]

Sorry, too chuffed this morning to put into words any form of long winded post but lets just say the chickens have come home to roost for Labour. It never the less amazes me how doggedly people will support this government despite their promises to deliver so much and consequently so little.

[Mossy]

Sorry, too chuffed this morning to put into words any form of long winded post but lets just say the chickens have come home to roost for Labour. It never the less amazes me how doggedly people will support this government despite their promises to deliver so much and consequently so little.

You have to realise every party makes promises, we tend to ignore the ones they pull off and slag them off when the others they promise dont happen.

simple FACT of the matter is there nearly all the same...

Im not bothered who runs this sad state of affairs as long as the CONS dont get in.

[IBM]

I thought Saracen's post was very interesting and credible. Right up to the point where he admited he thought Cameron as having a 'nice smile'. Now I no longer have any respect for the man.










I think we need to fire all politicians. All of them. And ban them from re-entering politics. Then open up the system again to all new comers. The problem being that the type of people the position attracts and just the kind of people, for the most part, you wouldn't want running the country. New Labour or New Conservatives, sometimes it's difficult to tell them apart. And I'd no longer vote Lib Dems (as I might have done in the past) as I just don't see them as being a credible alternative.

The system's broken. And so deeply embedded that no-one could ever possibly fix it.

[Andy3536]

From what i understand there was a better than normal turnout everywhere (substancialy so in London)
Can only assume all those people sent over the edge with the recent budget (mostly the 10p tax thing) have all turned out and voted against Labour.

I must admit i'm of the opinion now that labour have just annoyed me way to much, I'd give the Conservatives a go next and just wait and see if thier level of incompetance is a little better than Labour.
But can it get much worse?

Whats strange though up untill Gordon took over there would always be a few people that i knew were still willing to vote for labour, now everybody i know will be putting thier votes elsewhere when the genral election comes round. (it would at this piont be worth noting that most of the people i know fall into the 10p tax wage bracket)

[Lucio]

One of my friends has commented that in London, something like 69,000 or so voters (about 5&#37 voted BNP. That in itself is a worrying figure given the retoric that the BNP candidates were spouting....

[G4Z]

I must say I am getting a bit sick of seeing Jacqui smith and brown on TV saying they ned to 'get their message out clearer' and utter rubbish like that. in my opinion the electoral results mean that people have heard their message and worked out that the message is really just a load of bad policy. I can only speak for myself but I will never ever vote Labour as long as I live, why? Well its because of things like (but not limited to) perpetual war, ID cards, screwing the poor over, general lying and sleaze.

I don't think a new leader will cut it for the Labour party, they need new policy and they need to stop with this authoritarian police state nonesense and stop it NOW.

[Zak33]

For the Tory Party to be effectual, they're gonna need to do something close to political suicide.... but if they could do it, they'd pull off a major coup.

What is that "thing" they've gotta do?

They've gotta start planning. Properly. 10 year, maybe 15 year business plan. And they have to do that with 100% concentration, 100% single minded determination. As a succesful business person, with their team of managers and directors would do. Behind closed doors. With 100% and I can't stress this enough, 100% conviction.

Why would this be political suicide?

Because to do it, they'd need to withdraw from public view. Every day, day after day, long into the night, week after week, they need to pul their fingers out, and meet, discuss, plan, argue and finalise WHAT they are going to offer.

THEN they need to plan how to announce it, how to sell it to us, how to PROVE it in advance, how to make the commentators stand up and say "christ, that adds up"

And they need to make some of the hardest decisions ever. Which will, inevitably, piss off a load of voters because, as throughout history, you can't please all of the people all of the time.

And making decisions that are unpopular now, may make you more popular in the future.

Finally, they NEED to decide to back Cameron all the way, to win. Any more inhouse fighting and they'll slip.

Decisions to be made: Sort the tax system once and for all, and make it fair, clear, concise, and simple for the public to understand.
Dump Tax Credits, and give people a clear cut, understandable system that is done for them in PAYE. Period. End of.

Decide how to educate kids, and fund it.
Ditto Hospitals. |Create a bunch of evil bastards to run a task force, and clean the hospitals. Stop spending billions of quid on trillion pound operations to help 1000 people, and clean the damn hospitals, so that 10's of 1000's of people dont get iller in hopsital than when they entered.
Make the nurses jobs nicer, pay them properly, look after them and get the country back to health. Assist the doctors and let them mend us.
Ditto the Police. Pay them, incentivise people to join up, stop stressing them up to the ear's, let them do the job. Catching criminals.
Ditto teachers. Help the sods, stop hindering them.

If Income Tax has to rise to 24 or 25 %, do it.

Leave the housing market alone, and let it find it's own place. If they all stop lending, dont bail them out. Let them make a billion less quid this year.

Assist local produce staying in local areas. Help the fishermen, and to the Spaniards doing what they want in our waters, and if need be escort them away with a naval frigate or two.

Stop planning to build so many damn houses on flood plains. You are making a rod for your own back. Christ it was only recently ago that we all sunk in the rain. So why force housing onto crappy areas.

...i've gone on too much.... sorry.

[burtie]

They will lose my vote if they touch the tax credits system as it fine as it is. If i did'nt have the tax credits that help us low wage earners out, things would be very different for my family. I really don't think the tory party is going to lead us any better than labour to be honest, Cameron will say and offer anything to get into power but can he really make any difference.

Though i think its time for some of the scroungers to get back to work instead of milking the credits system, spending it on booze and fags make me sick.