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About LinkBacksThe first party to propose an end to mandatory voting would win.Originally Posted by Spud1
The first party to propose an end to mandatory voting would win.
Superb, Kal. One of those rare moments when a post made me quite literally LOL.
So true, too.
I had to do a last minute trip to Germany so couldn't vote
Well, the first tentative results are .... interesting.
It's not a final result, but most wards in Sunderland are in. And the voting changes are :-
Note, it's SO FAR, at time of typing.Code:Party % change % share Labour - 3% 47% UKIP +24% 24% Con - 6% 23% LD -15% 3% Other 0% 3%
But point 1 - Huge UKIP vote, from nowhere. They weren't on the chart last time.
Point 2 - Labour down, Tories down more, LD close to annihilated.
Point 3 - Labour stronghold, mathematically impossible for them to lose it.
Point 4 - First past the post, so 2nd place = naff all use in GE, and doesn't necessarily gain any councillors here.
The implications of that trend, very early though it is, for UKIP performance, and perhaps LD performance in the more PR EU elections, though, is .... interesting.
We just might be in for that shakeup I postulated. Even Chuka Umunna, Shadow Business Secretary, admitted we're now in a 4-party political world in England.
It's still very early, and final results are only in in a small number of seats (and a lot haven't started counting yet), but the BBC "Change in key wards since 2010 election" graph is ....Translation .... Labour got a HUGE kicking in 2010, including they're 2nd worst ever GE result. As the opposition, they would expect to do well against mid-term incumbents. The results aren't bad in absolute terms, but given the extremely low starting point, normal exoectations would be fairly significant gains, and they aren't materialising. Why? UKIP are taking votes, and seats, from them.Code:Change in "Key" wards since 2010 Labour 0% UKIP +27% Con - 7% LD -15% Green + 1% BNP - 4% Other - 2%
Not especially good for the Tories either, but the good news for them is that UKIP aren't just splitting their vote, but Labour vote too.
As for LibDems .... oh dear. Given the huge drop (so far) and the magnitude of the UKIP rise, it's hard to see how quite a bit of it isn't going UKIP from LD.
But .... why?
I wouldn't have thought UKIP was a natural home for disaffected LibDem'ers on policy grounds, unless a lot of them have suddenly decided they're firmly anti-EU instead of firmly pro-EU. So, perhaps it's those voting LD as the 'protest' vote switching now that the LDs are establishment to the core.
Green? Small gain. Yawn.
BNP? Down. Good, but yawn.
And remember, this is LOCAL elections, not the EU ones where UKIP were expected to do very well. And UKIP are only fielding candidates in about half the available wards, compared to pretty much 100% for the main parties. Expect that to change, upwards, at the next locals.
So far, this is looking distinctly like the level of gaining of momentum that gives rise to electoral credibility, and that MIGHT mark a shift in voting probabilities at the GE, where traditionally people write off the 'protest' parties in favour of a 'serious' vote.
It's going to muck up the predictive models for the GE, and make it far harder, because it really is looking like the start of 4-party politics in parts (like England) of the UK that aren't used to it.
Anyway, that's it for me. Bedtime.
The MEP ballot paper was almost like a loo roll, so many parties to choose from, some I have never heard of before! So hey ho, I voted so that gives me a right to moan.
Like you I find that highly unlikely. I'd posit a more reasonable suggestion is that a lot of LD voters simply didn't turnout, while UKIP voters did. On a 36% turnout it's very easy to get huge swings without anyone changing who they vote for. The Lib Dems were historically very good at getting their supporters out for local elections, so I'm not surprised that, as part of a coalition government that hasn't been as progressive as most LD supporters would like, they've been hit in the face by mass supporter apathy.
Of course, it's worth remembering that some LD support historically will have come from disaffected Tory voters, so it's certainly not inconceivable that some LD voters may have switched to UKIP (after all, you don't have to agree with all of a party's policies to vote for them), but I doubt that the majority will. I find a change of who voted to be far more likely...
Eminently possible.
Most likely, I suspect, is a fairly complex mix of different factors, with that being one of the biggies.
I must admit I often find it amusing to watch several competing politicians given one single piece of information, like a swing statistic, and see the contortions and mental gymnastics they each go through to come up with a way showing how what they claim underlies that statistic supports their case.
One thing I've heard several MPs (one LD on radio and at least two Labour on TV) say really has wound me up, though. They've all said, some in terms but the LD guy on the radio in pretty much these words, that they must repeat their message more often, and "turn up the volume" so the voters hear it.
No, you morons. The message from this isn't that we don't hear you. It's that we don't like what we hear. The solution isn't to shout at us. It's to stop flapping your gobs and uttering inane platitudes and sound bites and LISTEN for a change. And I don't mean listen, then repeat your previous tripe, but listen and take note of what the people are saying.
Part, and I think a major part, of the message is "a pox on all your houses". It's that you are SO guarded in what you say that you sound like political drones. Whatever question you're asked, you parrot the party line. It's the political equivalent of calling with a complaint and getting an automated answering service, and whatever you say, nothing happens and you're told "have a nice day". Well, PUKE!
I've heard leading politicians from each of the main parties wonder why Farage seems to be "Teflon" when a succession of "gaffs" occur. One reason is that when put under a gruelling Paxmanesque grilling, he speaks "human", not politician. Whether's it's just a slick act or not, he comes across as "a bloke" not a party drone, an android with a very small set of recorded answers.
Nothing, and personally I mean NOTHING annoys me more than a politician being asked a perfectly valid, reasonable, genuine question, and immediately twisting it to make a statement that has nothing at all to do with what they were asked. And if one more of these morons says 'the real question is .... <insert pre-canned drivel>, I'm going to want to smack him/her firmly on the nose. The real question, you bunch of pretentious morons, is the one you were bleeping well asked. If we wanted a pre-canned piece of party soundbite, we can click a link on the net and play it.
The really depressing thing was watching a newly elected UKIP guy, at about 2am, mimicking this utterly depressing type of performance. Not very well, I might add, but he had a good go. The last thing UKIP wants to do is start sounding like yet another party drone where the only difference is the colour of the rosette. Or we'll end up with four parties full of clones, and not a personality to share between them.
Agent (23-05-2014)
And yes, I feel a bit better for unloading that.
It'll probably last right up until I see the next politician on TV spouting the usual trite garbage "on message".
I know this is a semi-serious thread, but this is just too good not to post: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27543012
I wonder how many people the BBC interviewed before they found this genius.
mycarsavw (27-05-2014)
Wow. That was a piece of Chris Morris satire, right? Or filmed for the next series of Newswipe?
What is interesting about the elections is that, right across Europe, the so called far-right and far left parties have done extremely well. Here in the Rep. of Ireland, Sinn Fein have made huge gains in both the European and local elections, and are now being touted as one of, if not the main players come GE time, in a country where coalition governments are the norm.
As with the UK and the UKIP vote, I think this can be attributed to a wider sense of utter disaffection with the established political elite. People are sick and tired of the same crap spouted by those in power, and their continued, self-serving behaviour. One thing I would suggest though is, far from it being a protest vote, or people becoming more extreme with their political beliefs as has been suggested elsewhere, I think it can be explained by the continued moving to the centre by main stream parties. What UKIP propose is, far from offering something new, really just what the Conservative party would have canvassed on in previous generations. Likewise, I would be a Labour voter, but the Labour party no longer represents my views - I haven't changed, the party have. I would imagine many UKIP voters who would previously have voted Tory might say the same about them.
As much as I think it a sad day when a party like UKIP tops any poll, perhaps it is, perversely, just what is needed; a kick in the balls for the mainstream parties who might just be forced to revaluate their aims, and realign themselves with what would be their core voter base. If this brings an end to the scramble for the middle ground by the main players, I think it a price worth paying.
Did the guy run a few laps before doing the interview ? lol
I agree with what he said about jobs. East Europeans come here and are willing to work for peanuts, employers will soon start advertising jobs to the public offering peanut pay. And, then, what can you do ? You go for peanut pay or stay unemployed. And, there's also the job competition I talked about in a previous thread. My employment future seems uncertain due to these factors.
With Scotland and NI left to call... **** me :/
Or train/educate for a better job. If the minimum wage isn't enough then campaign for a living wage. Isolationism/protectionism isn't the solution.
mycarsavw (27-05-2014)
Sadly, I'm not sure they'll react like that. I've seen quite a few politicians from existing parties say they've got to work harder to get their message across. Sadiq Khan was one, and Danny Alexander another. One, I forget who, actually said thay've got to "try harder, and turn up the volume".
They seem to think this UKIP surge is because the people aren't hearing the politician's message, when in fact the problem is that politicians aren't hearing the people's message.
They are, in fact, collectively doing the political equivalent of an Ostrich burying it's head in the sand. Trouble is, burying your head in the sand tends to leave a tender spot perfectly exposed as a target for a good kicking. After this kicking, you'd think they might just get a hint of the message .... especially the LibDems, who've basically just had their collectively behinds kicked hard enough that it ended up around their ears.
I mean, just one (unless they sneak another past Scottish voters) MEP survived, and that one by a small margin, it seems.
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