RIP GTX260, 275 and 285?

[GheeTsar]

There's some logic in Charlie D's rumour that nVidia are about to pull the plug on the GTX260, GTX275 and GTX285:

http://www.semiaccurate.com/2009/10/...gh-end-market/

Not least as theoretically they should struggle to compete financially with the ATI cards with smaller die sizes at the equivalent performance.

But Charlie is not always right, and despite nVidia's policy of not commenting on rumour or speculation, they have said to the Tech Report that this is false:

http://www.techreport.com/discussions.x/17717

Assuming it isn't just a hoax, I'm not quite sure what this means for us, the consumer. Less choice is definitely a bad thing. It certainly won't drive the price of the HD58X0 down any time soon.

Thoughts?

[Phage]

If true...it's very, very bad news. Competition drives IT especiually in the rarified heights of 'enthusiast' parts. I can see his logic, but I sincerley hope he's wrong.

[kalniel]

I think this goes back to the reduced inventories thing I mentioned in the hexus.channel post a while back. Both nVidia and AMD are prefering that the channel buys less inventory in advance at fixed prices, because it gives them no room to react quickly to the competition and reduces bulk buy discounts.

[Domestic_Ginger]

I reckon that charlie is an ATI spin doctor; his rabid hatred of Nvidia can't be explained.

I hope its all lies and there are two competitors for years to come. If nvidia go the way of 3dfx I will be very disappointed.

[Infinite]

Smells like BS if you ask me.

[Syllopsium]

Can't say I believe it.. Charlie appears to have made a few accurate calls recently, but historically his record isn't good.

He may be wise to some of the timescales on chip manufacturing, but if you look at his estimates of first silicon they've been consistently wrong. Not to mention blunders like 'there won't be a GTX295'.

It's pretty certain that Nvidia won't have their next generation out soon, simply because they've not been able to show off cards at their own conference.

Nvidia's pushing of their own differentiating factors (PhysX, 3D stereoscopy, CUDA) must logically be a sign of a company that's looking for stopgap solutions until they can put out a properly competitive product.

The 2xx series have been out for months. I don't see why they are suddenly such a money pit that they need to be discontinued rather than subsidised to keep up their brand recognition.

Of course the other possibility is that Nvidia is going to release new silicon roundabout the time Windows 7 launches to spoil ATI's other chipsets. Perhaps a half baked DX10.1 which has been rumoured.

I can believe Nvidia are out of the game for three months, but not for six. I suspect there must be a 'Plan B' interim card, and it will be out in more than limited numbers by xmas. To pin everything on a new architecture and a process shrink at the same time would be daft.

Let's speculate then on the obvious strategy if they had sense :

1) 40nM 2xx series out soon. Probably rebadged as a new name. Basically the same as old series, but clocked higher. ATI appear to have the power management crown at the moment, but Nvidia got there first. They'll keep the same power requirements but increase speed.

2) Early GT300 at xmas.

PK

[Rollo]

I reckon that charlie is an ATI spin doctor; his rabid hatred of Nvidia can't be explained.

I hope its all lies and there are two competitors for years to come. If nvidia go the way of 3dfx I will be very disappointed.

If Ken says the parts are not cancelled, they are not.

NVIDIA is not "going the way of 3dfx":

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NVDA

NVIDIA is worth $7.64b, has no debt, and started the year with $1b in the bank.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amd

AMD (the company that owns ATi) on the other hand, is valued at $3.7b, has over $5b in debt, and no money. (coming off 11 quarters of straight losses)

This is the reason they make bankruptcy watch pages, this is also how 3dfx ended up bankrupt. The creditors forced it.

[WESSIE]

Oh dear, competition is always good in the PC sector. I don't think NV have really been fully firing since the FX5800 dustbuster days

[Syllopsium]

Oh, I don't know, the 8800GT was pretty darn successful.

[WESSIE]

No denying they've released some good cards after the FX series, but for me it was the turning point

[Zhaoman]

Oh dear, competition is always good in the PC sector. I don't think NV have really been fully firing since the FX5800 dustbuster days

Very confusing post are you saying there's been no competition in the PC sector since FX5800? The 8800 is arguably nVidia's most successful series ever. It was so good that all they've been doing is rebranding it and still continue to flatten the competition with its's sales. It's only until the 4800 series was released that the 8800s (and rebrands) have had any real competition. And nV are a very healthy company as already pointed out so I don't see them going down anytime soon. IMO this scaremongering is getting a bit OTT.

[WESSIE]

Sorry, didn't mean to confuse. Firstly, I had forgotten that the GeForce FX series was released as long ago as 2003. However, it reminded me of the last days of 3dfx before they were swallowed up by NV. What I was trying to say (and failed so dismally!) was that we seem to be sliding into a similar scenario. I certainly haven't bought NV since my GeForce 4200

Sorry everyone

[Pob255]

Ummm I'd be carefull with "The 8800" as there were 2 very different gpu's that made up the 8800, the g80 and g92
The inital 8 series the 8800 was the g80 and spanked ati's high end HD2900
As ATi prepaired to release the 38xx cards, nvidia quickly released a not quite finished g92 chip in the 8series range, let's face it the 8800gt only appeared to stump ati's new cards, it is basically a 9series.
The 9series ended up being a slight dissapointment, mainly due to the 8800gt release.
This current ati 4series and nvidia 2xx series has been heatedly fort, it's only been now that ati has got competaive cards, they've taken some risks which paid off and now are pushing nvidia hard.

The other area nvidia has taken damage in recently is motherboard chipsets.
the AMD/ATi AMD chipsets have beaten them on the AMD motherboard and the intel chipsets have pushed them very very hard on the intel motherboard side.
The fact that they are now lisenceing sli for intel chipsets is a big sign.

But at the same time the ION has realy pushed the boat out in the micro atx motherboard side.

I don't see nvida steping out, but it's currently not smooth sailing for them.
I do hope nvidia don't pull out of the gaming card market, because if all we have is ATi don't exspect any good, cheap cards in the future.

[Rollo]

Oh dear, competition is always good in the PC sector. I don't think NV have really been fully firing since the FX5800 dustbuster days

You've got to be kidding. They averaged 66% of the desktop PC market for the first two quarters of 2009.

[UseItNow]

Looks as if it might be RIP! Source: http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15919/1/

[Hottentot]

Yep looks to be true

http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3659

If you were thinking of SLI its time to grab that second card while you can.

Shame cos I thought Nvidia would slash their 275/285 prices and start a price war. Looks like ATI will be able to keep prices high for the rest of the year.