Predictions on when GPUs will be back at RRP.

[Percy1983]

I fear we may be in the perpetual scalper phase now as the 3050 really shows it has miners weren't buying it but see how many are on ebay now.

The problem is we are now in a situation where the scalpers are fuelling the shortage to feed the scalpers and it just feels any gpu released will just be bought up to scalp now.

All we can hope is that AMD/Nvidia/intel actually make sufficient stock of a product before release even if that means holding a launch back.

[[GSV]Trig]

Yeah, there are still people out there saying that all of this is down to miners despite evidence to the contrary..

[Rob_B]

Aren't miners a significant cause though ?
Yeah they don't want a 3050 but since they've bought up/pushed the price up of everything else we are stuck fighting over the scraps.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

I fear we may be in the perpetual scalper phase now as the 3050 really shows it has miners weren't buying it but see how many are on ebay now.

The problem is we are now in a situation where the scalpers are fuelling the shortage to feed the scalpers and it just feels any gpu released will just be bought up to scalp now.

All we can hope is that AMD/Nvidia/intel actually make sufficient stock of a product before release even if that means holding a launch back.

There are people on forums defending the RX6500XT pricing and lack of features. I really wish we stopped all this "relativism" and realised sometimes all releases since late 2020 in the dGPU space are a bit average. Scalpers wouldn't also exist if blithering idiots didn't pay the prices too. People never learnt from the 2018 crypto boom.

[kompukare]

I've been thinking about the previous bust.
That the one ebay shop (think they were called realtime) was able to ship in mining cards from the Far East and sell 5,000+ of them at "bargain" prices witha 470/570 4GB ITX for under £70 etc., speaks volume about how much of a bust it was.

Nvidia must be (starts with an "s") themselves worried potentially million 3000 series suddenly flooding the used market. AMD too but then if GPUs no longer sell they have other products they can use those wafers for; while their margins would suffer I think they could easily afford to sell 5600X for under £150 and 5800X for under £200 and still make far more profit than on GPUs even ATM. The 7nm part of a full 5800X - and yields are meant to be good enough that most 5600X are merely dies with cores fused off - cost from $15 to $30 (largely depending wafer prices - if there was a big bust TSMC would have to reduce their prices unless mobiles can keep demand high enough). I think even 6C for under £100 with the 8C at £150 would still be massively profitable.

[kompukare]

There are people on forums defending the RX6500XT pricing and lack of features. I really wish we stopped all this "relativism" and realised sometimes all releases since late 2020 in the dGPU space are a bit average. Scalpers wouldn't also exist if blithering idiots didn't pay the prices too. People never learnt from the 2018 crypto boom.

I wouldn't defend it as with the silly design decisions it really as almost an OEM checkbox GPU like the MX350 to be paired with an future APU (future as no current AMD APUs have PCIe 4.0). However, on HUKD and other forums people don't realise what the 6500XT enables: someone who has a hard fixed cannot-be-moved-at-all GPU budget of £200 not have to buy used. Normally it would have cost £120 even with "normally" 2020s inflation. In earlier times, this would have been a £60 part but I doubt those are coming back.

The comment from Gibbo was telling too: the 6500XT has led to OCUK selling other low(ish) which they haven't sold in ages. OEMs and ODMs will really love the 6500XT. That such a tiny die with a 64-bit bus and far too little Infinity Cache will age bad? Box shifters don't care.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

I wouldn't defend it as with the silly design decisions it really as almost an OEM checkbox GPU like the MX350 to be paired with an future APU (future as no current AMD APUs have PCIe 4.0). However, on HUKD and other forums people don't realise what the 6500XT enables: someone who has a hard fixed cannot-be-moved-at-all GPU budget of £200 not have to buy used. Normally it would have cost £120 even with "normally" 2020s inflation. In earlier times, this would have been a £60 part but I doubt those are coming back.

The comment from Gibbo was telling too: the 6500XT has led to OCUK selling other low(ish) which they haven't sold in ages. OEMs and ODMs will really love the 6500XT. That such a tiny die with a 64-bit bus and far too little Infinity Cache will age bad? Box shifters don't care.

HUKD had a Ryzen 5 3600 system with an RTX3050 for around £700ish. The system builders will be getting these for less than what we are paying for them. If not how come there have been so many RTX3060/RTX3060TI/RX6600/RX6600XT based prebuilt desktops and even laptops for under £1000 during the last couple of months.

Also,you could still get GTX1650 GDDR6 cards for just over £200 in the first half of last year. Basically as I have said many times before,they are jacking up the prices of parts for DIY builders because they know they can charge more.

Hence,I refuse to pay anymore than RRP for these dGPUs at best. Also why I avoided overpriced stuff like the Zen3 CPUs. I know when AMD is taking the mickey on prices,like Nvidia and Intel do.

I've been thinking about the previous bust.
That the one ebay shop (think they were called realtime) was able to ship in mining cards from the Far East and sell 5,000+ of them at "bargain" prices witha 470/570 4GB ITX for under £70 etc., speaks volume about how much of a bust it was.

Nvidia must be (starts with an "s") themselves worried potentially million 3000 series suddenly flooding the used market. AMD too but then if GPUs no longer sell they have other products they can use those wafers for; while their margins would suffer I think they could easily afford to sell 5600X for under £150 and 5800X for under £200 and still make far more profit than on GPUs even ATM. The 7nm part of a full 5800X - and yields are meant to be good enough that most 5600X are merely dies with cores fused off - cost from $15 to $30 (largely depending wafer prices - if there was a big bust TSMC would have to reduce their prices unless mobiles can keep demand high enough). I think even 6C for under £100 with the 8C at £150 would still be massively profitable.

AMD is making massive magins on these 7NM parts,especially when you consider the margins they must be making on the consoles. Its why I don't understand some people on other forums defending the RX6500XT pricing because 7NM,etc is expensive.

Remember when Nvidia made the £1000 Geforce Titan? There was an apparent "leak" about 28NM prices being too expensive before this....and people used that "leak" to justify why Nvidia "had" to charge so much.

It's quite clear many companies are pandemic profiteering including shipping companies who have made massive amounts of money last year.

[jimbouk]

AMD is making massive magins on these 7NM parts,especially when you consider the margins they must be making on the consoles.

Can't imagine they'd be making that much from the consoles per unit. They must have had to make quite a deal to keep the big companies in board, as well as prioritising them. If they knew how crazy prices were going to get there probably would have been more money in not!

Otherwise though, yes everyone is milking it for all it's worth.

[kompukare]

AMD is making massive magins on these 7NM parts,especially when you consider the margins they must be making on the consoles. Its why I don't understand some people on other forums defending the RX6500XT pricing because 7NM,etc is expensive.

Remember when Nvidia made the £1000 Geforce Titan? There was an apparent "leak" about 28NM prices being too expensive before this....and people used that "leak" to justify why Nvidia "had" to charge so much.

It's quite clear many companies are pandemic profiteering including shipping companies who have made massive amounts of money last year.

You mean the tiny margins they make on the consoles? I speculated that they are trying to hide those as they only report under two headings: the consoles are paired with EPYC; while Ryzen is paird with GPUs. In both cases the low-margin stuff is being hidden since Wall Street loves margins. Unless some big DC customers getting EPYC for free, then they effectively hidden their highest margin product in with their lower margin product. Hence both divisions have similar margins. Pretty standard stuff: Intel were hardly ever forthcoming about how much Atom/Larrabee/5G/whatever was loosing them; Nvidia hardly talked about all the huge money they poured into Tegra with little to show. As long as profits flow in, no analyst is going to ask. Since fabless Nvidia managed to get their margins to 66%, everyone is expected to follow.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Can't imagine they'd be making that much from the consoles per unit. They must have had to make quite a deal to keep the big companies in board, as well as prioritising them. If they knew how crazy prices were going to get there probably would have been more money in not!

Otherwise though, yes everyone is milking it for all it's worth.

You mean the tiny margins they make on the consoles? I speculated that they are trying to hide those as they only report under two headings: the consoles are paired with EPYC; while Ryzen is paird with GPUs. In both cases the low-margin stuff is being hidden since Wall Street loves margins. Unless some big DC customers getting EPYC for free, then they effectively hidden their highest margin product in with their lower margin product. Hence both divisions have similar margins. Pretty standard stuff: Intel were hardly ever forthcoming about how much Atom/Larrabee/5G/whatever was loosing them; Nvidia hardly talked about all the huge money they poured into Tegra with little to show. As long as profits flow in, no analyst is going to ask. Since fabless Nvidia managed to get their margins to 66%, everyone is expected to follow.

I was implying the fact the consoles are sold at a much smaller margin,and AMD has diverted so much supply to them.

So if they are increasing margins still,it also implies they are making decent ones on their CPUs and GPUs. I see a popular retort on forums that AMD charging more money is "fair" because their margins are lower - it wouldn't surprise me if they are as high(or even better) in certain product ranges when compared to their competition. After all Intel seems to have more "budget" and "mainstream" dGPUs available,and for quite a while AMD had no dGPUs under £300 but Nvidia did.

Then when you consider RRP AMD dGPUs are impossible to find outside the launch week,and Nvidia has several times shipped RRP FE models in major markets too.

Think how much more they must make on a Ryzen 5 5600X against the Ryzen 5 3600,which is barely cheaper to make?? AFAIK,even a Core i5 12400 has a much larger 7NM/10NM chip than a Ryzen 5 5600X.Also interesting how you can't actually find a Ryzen 5 3600 that easily but you can easily find prebuilt systems with the same CPU!

[Super_Ace]

All the talks of not a paper launch by company personal at AMD on twitter and other forums yet they still do not ship to the UK. I'm not sure if this is due to Brexit or other logistical issues, but you'd hope a company like AMD would prioritise delivering their product to consumers. It's the main reason I ended up going for Nvidia FE card.

Are you saying that AMD is diverting supply of chips that they are not obligated to? I'd say it's more like AMD just trying to meet the terms of their contacts with Microsoft and Sony.

The current situation for PC gamers seems to have a bleak outlook and I personally feel people are simply going to be priced out of pc gaming. All companies are charging more money because market conditions have shown them that people are willing to pay inflated prices. AMD was the value option with the initial Ryzen release but with limited competition from Intel they took the performance crown. And you can say with that came the rights to charge consumers more reducing the value of their products. This is why competition is so important and I find it difficult to understand why people become brand loyal instead supporting good value products.

[Percy1983]

It appears prices are starting to come back down, fingers crossed it continues.

Settling for a 3060 / 6600 level of performance to which I have been tracking the Vega 64 which appear to be dropping fast and to say I was happy with my previous Vega 56 and they both have FSR support and I am not concerned with ray tracing it may be a winner. Plus my machine is mostly for productivity to which the vega cards do really well.

I could buy a Vega 64 now and technically make a profit from what I sold my vega 56 for but right now it seem silly as prices are coming down and as I have waited this long I am happy to wait longer.

[Jonj1611]

Certainly hope so, I am looking to rebuild my PC later this year so hoping for a reasonable cost of graphics cards otherwise I might have to be looking at pre-built.

On a completely unrelated subject I just found out my 2015 Mac runs World of Warcraft really really well. Who knew!

[cptwhite_uk]

Given current market conditions, and the prospect of new GPUs in the latter half of the year, I'm hopeful we might see a return to MSRP on current gen cards around July - August, however there's so many variables it's really hard to predict.

[kalniel]

Companies are still fighting over semi-conductors with large backlogs to get through so pressure on the market is going to remain - I think mining pressure will ease however. It'll be interesting to see if GPU vendors stick to their usual schedule for new product releases - if so we might get some new cards at the end of the year and while I expect they will in usual fashion be targeted by scalpers, it might mean a dump of the previous gen cards just before.

[KeithJ0008]

This chip shortage sucks , when i try to buy a GPU everything is out of stock