Yeah, to be honest, I would be surprised.
I understand that this is aimed at Joe Public, not those that will use anonymous proxies, or a different service to the one their ISP provides, etc, and it would certainly slow things down, but I'm not convinced that it'll stop anyone determined enough, or that the methods necessary to get past such steps won't filter down to Joe Public after a period of delay.
Put it this way, all this is is a rehash of an argument that's getting on for 50 years old maybe more. The studios tried to get cassette recorders banned because they were used to copy LPs and singles, and they were cheap, consumer-oriented devices. The same was said, with some justification as well, about video recorders. And then CD-writers. And computer copying has been going on since, well, I had access to bit-copiers for Apple-based software back in the late 70's.
My point is that it's like an eternal game of technology leapfrog. Those that want copying stopped come up with some method,be it legal or technical. It either doesn't work, or works for a while but someone comes up with a way round it and the game moves on. For instance, a site puts up a copy of a downloaded film. The studio gets that link removed, but by then, it's on 100 other sites. The studio get a software service closed down (Napster, anyone) but a new service springs up that doesn't have the centralised points of attack.
This game goes on and on, and on.
If anything much changes, other than the way things get passed around, yeah, I'd be very surprised.
Oh, and I'm not saying I approve of that. Just that I expect it to happen.