The TRUE Future of the CPU/GPU Markets

[Shadow7789]

During IDF, I was pondering what is going to happen to AMD when Intel releases its new product. As I was thinking that over, the nVidia vs. Ati battle came to mind. Really, in my opinion both AMD and ATi are screwed, and here is why:

AMD vs. Intel: Although there is no disputing that AMD is the current technological leader, that is only because Intel was lazy for tha past couple of years. When you look back at the Northwood processor, there was no denying that it was faster than the Athlon XP; however, when AMD released the Athlon 64 , the tides shifted in AMD's favor, and Intel failed to provide something that could compete with AMD. Now the ball is back in Intel's court though. Intel is preparing a "new" architecture, whereas AMD is going to keep the K8 architecture for some time longer. I'd bet any money that AMD loses it's place (as performance leader) because of Intel's next architecture. This is almost a repeat of the Athlons and the early Pentium 4s. AMD gets its 5 minuets of fame, but ultimately, it's hard to compete with a multi-billion dollar company (unless what you offer is free. Power to LINUX!)

I am not going to ignore the Intel vs. AMD case, but even if AMD does win the case, by the time the verdict is made, if all goes well for Intel, Intel should be the performance leader again. Then what would be the motivation for manufactures to use AMD? Intel has their volume discounts and performance. Life is good!


nVidia vs. ATi: This battle is questionable, but I see this going in nVidia's favor. Personally, I think that the R520 was a failed architecture, because it appears from the specs that it is basically a "brute force" architecture. When the clocks of the R520 and the G70 are compared, the R520 has a massive clock advantage. Why would nVidia have such low clocks compared to the R520? In my opinion, it is because there is no way that ATi is going to be able to keep high yields for a 600 MHz core and is their GPU is not a threat to their G70 at lower clocks. Let's also not neglect to mention that ATi only gained a large market share because the NV3x was a failed series (excluding the FX5200 which was a huge success), before the NV3x, ATi was never a real threat, and now that nVidia has a good architecture again, I foresee it returning to that same scenario. Also, again, it's hard to compete against with someone with more money than you.

[Applecrusher]

Now the ball is back in Intel's court though. Intel is preparing a "new" architecture, whereas AMD is going to keep the K8 architecture for some time longer. I'd bet any money that AMD loses it's place (as performance leader) because of Intel's next architecture.

Just as Intel are making a new architecture, AMD are doing the same, I believe its M2, it will have DDR2 and an off die memory controller from what i can remember...

[sawyen]

M2s are still based on the K8 architechture.. its just a brand new socket with a revised memory controller to handle DDR2..

I believe the CPU war would get more exciting, but I woudn't bet on the new Yonah or Cedar Mill to be an absolute AMD killer. Bear in mind, the K8 architechture still has plenty of head-room to push... unlike Mr.Pentium 4 670.

I'm also finding it hard to think Intel would have the capacity to fix its thermal dissipation overnight with their 65nm process.. It may be less power hungry, but not all efficient.

As far as memory subsystems, you need to remember AMD are catching up with Intel in the DDR2 run (in good time as DDR2 are becoming less latency limited). And AMD will still win the latency and bandwidth war as Intel are still leaving the job of handling the memory subsystem for the mobo. With M2, and an integrated memory controller that handles DDR2, the ability to maximize the low latency + DDR2 bandwidth becomes even more apparent.

[sawyen]

nVidia vs. ATi: This battle is questionable, but I see this going in nVidia's favor. Personally, I think that the R520 was a failed architecture, because it appears from the specs that it is basically a "brute force" architecture. When the clocks of the R520 and the G70 are compared, the R520 has a massive clock advantage. Why would nVidia have such low clocks compared to the R520? In my opinion, it is because there is no way that ATi is going to be able to keep high yields for a 600 MHz core and is their GPU is not a threat to their G70 at lower clocks. Let's also not neglect to mention that ATi only gained a large market share because the NV3x was a failed series (excluding the FX5200 which was a huge success), before the NV3x, ATi was never a real threat, and now that nVidia has a good architecture again, I foresee it returning to that same scenario. Also, again, it's hard to compete against with someone with more money than you.

I would not bet on that case as well, ATi may be a latecomer in the horsepower race, but its no slouch either. R520 may be delayed for good reason... The preparation for a close release date between their R520 and R580. This leave Nvidia less time to react to ATis flagship board, hence possibly rushing the G71 to gain market reputation. (I know sources have commented that the G71 have been possibly cancelled).

ATi have been doing well for a good 2 generations, their Radeon 9 and X series are no doubt witness to their adamant success. Rage was crappy, we all know that.. so was the original TNT.. It barely had enough punch to take out a 16MB Voodoo Banshee..

The GFX war really could go either ways. I won't bet on anything yet until at least we see something from the R520.

[Shadow7789]

I believe the CPU war would get more exciting, but I woudn't bet on the new Yonah or Cedar Mill to be an absolute AMD killer. Bear in mind, the K8 architechture still has plenty of head-room to push... unlike Mr.Pentium 4 670.

I was talking the Merom (or whatever it is) and the new 65nm Desktop (not the Cedar Mill, but the one after).

[sawyen]

Cedar Mill is 65nm and will replace a majority of Prescotts (Other than the Q1 06s Prescott 2M VT).. All of Intels new cores are 65nm except Prescott 2M VT..

Yonah will compete with AMDs X2 and so on..

[merlin2001]

"Nvidia vs ATI" - "Also, again, it's hard to compete against with someone with more money than you."
Just took a quick look at the financial for ATI and Nvidia (converted to Millions USD)
Sales for Nvidia over the past 5 quarters:
456.06 515.59 566.48 583.85 574.8
Net Income:
5.12 25.88 48.01 64.44 74.84

Sales For ATI:
491.46 572.22 613.86 608.19 530.24
Net Income:
48.62 61.16 63.70 57.19 -.45
(numbers from Bloomberg)
--from the looks of it - ATI actually has more revenue(excluding the last dire quarter caused by the delay on R520). They also have more cash on their balance sheet, so I would argue that they're prob. in a better position to devote more resources to RnD. I certainly wouldn't call the Gfx wars over....

[Olly1234]

I think it also has to be remembered that AMD will also be moving to 65nm not long after Intel shrinks it's die size. And according to the AMD roadmap the FX-59 3.0Ghz will be out in Q1 06 along with X2 5000+ on 939 and then M2 verisons with DDR2 launched Q2 so it should be quite interesting still

http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets...spx?i=2476&p=2

[YorkieBen]

going to 65nm isntr necessarily a cure all for intel

they went to 90nm with the Prescotts and they produced for heat per mhz than the northwood cores

[Byatt]

Although ATi has messed up with R520 - I agree that a brute force solution is both inelegant and uncompetitive, I see Fudo being a bit like the current P4 - struggling to keep up in terms of design with G70, and banking on clockspeed to save it, I think this round goes to nVidia, hands down - much as the 9x00 series beat the fx series hands down.

ATi's expansion into motherboards is going to hurt nVidia elsewhere though, so this battle will wage for a while - ATi aren't going anywhere.

As for CPUs - well, I guess Athlon 64 has been AMD's equivalent of ATi's 9x00 series - but I think the K8 architecture has a long way to go - it's leaps and bounds ahead of ye olde P4 and even with Intel's new sparkling architectures I think K8 will compete very well (note the frequent successful speed hikes from winchester to venice to san diego, for example - didn't see that from intel, did we?). Another thing to consider is AMD's value advantage - equivalent Intel chips are still much pricier than their AMD counterparts.

You may well turn out to be right, generally the big boys do tend to win in big business - but I think you underestimate the amount of growth ATi and AMD have achieved - they are certainly going to remain competitive for some time.

[Butcher]

AMD gets its 5 minuets of fame, but ultimately, it's hard to compete with a multi-billion dollar company (unless what you offer is free. Power to LINUX!)

But AMD is a multi-billion dollar company itself... And they managed to run for years without even entering the CPU market. AMD was actually founded only a year after Intel, they just chose not to go into CPUs as quickly as intel did.

[sawyen]

But AMD is a multi-billion dollar company itself... And they managed to run for years without even entering the CPU market. AMD was actually founded only a year after Intel, they just chose not to go into CPUs as quickly as intel did.

My point as well.. for Intel to be using Microsoft styled kamikaze to starve their competition by burning $$ will definitely be an ultra stupid move. Besides, there will only be ONE Bill Gates..