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About LinkBacksthey tap at my window..with tiny poles!!Originally Posted by Tumble
they tap at my window..with tiny poles!!
now this is interesting, the hot potato that is the economy.
I started to work in a trading bank as an engineer, someone who was meant to be fully mathematically literate, who knew nothing of the idea of modern economics, but was a real wizz when it came to software development.
They taught me many concepts, but at the begining one basic premise that fundementally NO ONE, can understand completely the market. The classic example everyone always gives is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Te...tal_Management LTCM was a company set up by a nobel price winning mathematition turned economist. Mr scholes no one could deny was a genious, with an amazing understanding of options, he was one of the three people who figured out the defacto way of pricing options. Point is LTCM the fund set up with his ideas crashed amazingly (he actually did this twice....)
So we have this idea that no one can understand the market, wanna know something worse? No one really can prove the value of simple option, a contractual agrement that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation to buy a stock at a pre-determined price. When the method that we use day in day out we all know to be fundementally flawed you have to be a moron to claim to be some kind of genious who understands it all, even gordon b never was that arogant.
Now for the blame game, those who blame it on maggies actions 20 years ago, well your just stupid, yes if she had never re-defined the UK economy we probably wouldn't be in this state, but we could easily (and i belive) be in a worse one.
What's a problem is the lack of savings that have been made for this nation, the sun shined and we made no hay. Thats an in-excusible sin. When NL came to power, the economy was actually in pretty good shape, when we look at the non government metrics of inflation, Adult Population Size - Employed people (notice i'm NOT calling this un-employment, because thats a different metric, yes to cut un-employment it was simply re-defined.... its fun this lark isn't it!). Then look at it 6 months before, and 6 months after. It has a clear postative direciton.
What we can say for sure, and we do know is that the UK is going to face problems that many people don't seam to understand or care about, too many people see bankers getting big bonuses and get a bit of schandenfreude when they see them been hurt. Well the FTSE has sneezed, LIBOR has shot up, and believe me all of us will be catching a cold. Why?
Lets have a look at some basic commods, Sugar and Brent Crude Sweet (Oil, the expensive easy to refine kind). Look how high the price of them is, whilst oil is likely to continue to have high volatility (move up and down a lot) its still far more expensive than it was 5 years ago. Its unlikely this is going to change unless more refineray capacity is found.
What i'm getting at is the basic cost of living is going to be going up, everything we take for granted, and have been often forgetting is the most important thing we buy each month, will suddenly become apparent. Now it gets worse. Many of us, have been splurging on credit, I always belived you're credit card limit was what you earnt in a month, its what i was told when i first took one out. How come 5 years later i'm in posession of £19k word of instant credit, vast majority could be intrest free, the rest 14.9% APR. I'm expecting that to be closer to 9k this time next year (despite my wage going up).
My point is people will be spending less on the non-essentails that our country relies on. The debt people have will cost more to pay off. People won't be getting more debt. Essentails will cost more.
As such this will ***k EVERYONE. Now combine this with often questionable off-sheet borrowing techniques of the government, this makes it very hard to know quite how much they are in debt. Without getting into the concepts of Rho, the rise in LIBOR is going to hit government departments and whats really worrying is no one knows too how much?
Now this is why i have respect for Cameron, because he isn't so stupid as to say "oh its easy to fix it", "we'll cut taxes". Instead he says things like "Sound Money" and express a desire to lower taxes, without violating the idea of Sound Money.
Actions like that are systematic of someone who understands that they cant push the magic fix the economy button, but take steps to minimize the risk to the british tax payer. What else can you ask of someone?
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And in 10 years, everyone will be voting 'anyone but the Tories' (probably meaning Labour) after holding them accountable for everything that goes wrong in that time. How I love two party politics.
No, I won't bother to vote. There isn't a tick box for 'none of the above'
I don't know about anyone else but in the last 24 hours most of the discussion was all on the US Treasurys bail out plan in the media. That was thing that was going to effect everyone and thus grabbed people's attention and headlines.
Obama-mccain race, the Cameron speech were irrelevant compared to that.
Well, that's what spoiling your ballot paper is for - it tells them that you bother, yet don't think any of the choices are valid.
Would they be angry if I did it with a glitter pen?
Only if its a 'pc' glitter pen that does not offend anyone else!
I know someone who attends every time and writes "liar" in every box
Wonder if that counts as being spoilt?
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