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Thread: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

  1. #17
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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Quote Originally Posted by HalloweenJack View Post
    hmmm I see the cold war battle plan Is still in effect for the Russian army - they can go from barracks to full war footing in 24 hours , and each unit carries enough supplies for 3 days total war without resupply.

    you can bet Ukraine is pulling its troops back to base and getting them in the field - they have something like 1300 tanks (T-62UD and there own T-80). The UK et all don't have the armoured formations of the 80`s anymore , and as said elsewhere - that capability takes years to rebuild.
    Have a look at that article I mentioned earlier:

    http://www.stripes.com/news/despite-...nding-1.269882

    Despite impending cuts in the armed forces of many of its member nations, NATO remains by far the largest military force in the world, outstripping any potential rivals in terms of numbers and defense expenditures, according to annual statistics released by the alliance.

    The data also show that the United States still accounts for more than 70 percent of the total defense expenditures of NATO’s 28 member countries.

    The release of the latest NATO figures comes ahead of a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels and coincides with Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s proposal for continued cuts in U.S. military spending after 13 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq.

    Hagel’s plan would result in slashing the active-duty Army down to between 440,000 and 450,000 troops, its smallest size since before World War II. Congress has already mandated nearly $500 billion in defense spending cuts in coming years, triggering a major re-evaluation of U.S. military needs.

    Among NATO’s European members, only Estonia, Greece and Britain spent more than the alliance’s target sum of 2 percent of gross domestic product on their armed forces last year. The U.S. dedicated 4.1 percent of its GDP to defense, or $735 billion, according to the NATO data.

    The combined defense expenditures of all NATO nations in 2013 amounted to $1.02 trillion. This figure includes research and development expenditures related to purchase of major equipment and pensions.

    By comparison, the total of military budgets for all countries in the world was $1.745 trillion in 2012, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden.

    In 2012, China’s expenditures amounted to $166 billion and Russia’s were $90 billion. Iran trailed with just under $7 billion, according to SIPRI.

    By troop numbers, NATO also held a lopsided advantage over any other nation, with a total of 3,370,000 servicemembers in 2013, according to NATO’s statistics. This contrasts with Russia’s 766,000 troops and China’s estimated 2.3 million active-duty personnel, according to Sam Perlo-Freeman, director of SIPRI’s program on military expenditures.

    “NATO still accounts for a clear majority of world military spending, over 60 percent, and a substantial number of other top spenders are American allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel,” Perlo-Freeman said. “In terms of military capabilities, the U.S. and NATO will remain absolutely unmatched for the foreseeable future.”

    But Perlo-Freeman warned that although China’s military capabilities “are far, far shorter” than America’s, it doesn’t mean that Washington can impose its will in China’s “near-environment.”

    As for Russia, Perlo-Freeman said it could compare with the West only in its nuclear capabilities.

    “But its conventional forces have a lot of serious deficiencies in terms of command and control and mobility, (and) in terms of actually being able to fight modern warfare, they are far behind Western countries,” he said.


    Defense budgets in most European nations have come under increasing pressure since the start of the economic recession six years ago. Although military expenditures appear to have escaped major cuts during that period, analysts expect that, with the withdrawal of NATO combat troops from Afghanistan at the end of the year, they will fall to levels hard to imagine just a decade ago.

    Since 2010, European nations have cut their military forces by a total of about 160,000 servicemembers. Over the next several years, the trend is expected to continue on the assumption that the alliance will not be engaged in another large-scale, long-duration ground war anytime soon. Britain has already announced it will cut 30,000 armed forces personnel, leaving just 147,000 servicemembers by 2020. Belgium intends to slash its defense budget by 20 percent, and several other countries are expected to follow suit.

    Most of the Russian tanks are old - the latest is the T90A/T90S on their side,but most are much older models. Look at Chechyna and Georgia. Russian army formations did not do well especially against newer weapons and tactics even with massively superior numbers.

    They lack proper reconnaissance and communication ability,and its one of their biggest weaknesses. Plus if they tried anything,the EU/US would warn the Ukranians long before they could really do much.

    The thing is the UK has much better anti-tank capabilities than in the 1980s,and we never had that many tanks when compared to Germany.

    In fact compared to Russian abilities,Europe is relatively better now in anti-tank helicopters than in the 80s. Many countries have AH64s and Tiger attack helicopters. The Russians barely have 110 Mi28N and KA52 helicopters and most of the MI28N helicopters lack radar too. The same goes with the upgraded MI24 helicopters they use.

    Plus,the Ukranian army and air force are not tiny too,and Ukranian defence companies still sell to the Russians.

    They know enough about Russian military systems themselves.

    FFS,the Georgians used Russian medium level SAMs to shoot down a TU22M bomber!!

    They could not even jam their own radar systems!!

    The Ukranians have S300 long range systems.

    These are the very systems we did not want the Syrians getting.

    Moreover,they are relying on countries like France and Israel to help improve their ships and UAVs,since they have failed with indigenous attempts.

    Russia's conventional abilities look strong on paper,but in reality they are not. They only have numbers on their side.

    The whole they are spending billions to start WW3 ignores the fact that Russia as a military power,has been weak for a very long time. Even with all that money spent over the next decade or two,it is unlikely Russia will be anything as strong as the Soviet Union of old.

    They are only a country of less than 150 million people.

    They are facing nearly a billion people who make up the NATO alliance,plus another billion each in India and China.

    You do the math.

    I expect any open confrontation between the two countries,will probably result in the Russian army suffering heavy losses.

    Edit!!

    Lets play the devils advocate again.

    People are forgetting this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-26398103

    The new leader of Ukraine's autonomous Crimea region has asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for help to ensure peace.

    A Kremlin source said it would "not leave unnoticed" the request from Sergiy Aksyonov.

    Mr Aksyonov, who leads the main pro-Russian party in Crimea, was elected prime minister by the region's parliament this week during an emergency session.

    US President Barack Obama warned Moscow against intervention after mysterious troop movements.
    The OP is making things look black and white,yet it seems not all in the country he considers himself an expert.

    Nearly 20% of the Ukranian population identifies themselves as ethnically Russian:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

    Nearly 60% of the Crimean region identifies themselves as Russian.

    Maybe in all the Russkies are the new evil thing,people have forgotten nearly 8 million out of the 45 million people in Ukraine consider themselves ethnically Russian.

    Even if half or less than half of those want close ties with Russia that is nearly 3 to 4 million people still.

    That also assumes all other Ukranians are 100% pro-west too.

    I wonder how much of our media is giving their viewpoints attention??

    Or how many of us are hearing their voices too in all of this.

    Only the ones towing the lines we want to hear?
    Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 02-03-2014 at 10:44 AM.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    the Ukraine PM has asked the west to not get involved - and I understand the `why` - they pretty much field heavy tanks and mechanised infantry - so in a shooting war they can hold there own , the only weakness is the actual ability of the airforce , sadly most of which is in a state of repair BUT (they can field something like 80 mig 29`s and 40 or so su-27`s) , given any imminent hostilities , you can bet all levels of resources WILL be being thrown at the hundred of so mig 29`s in storage to get them combat ready.

    T-64`s (no Iraq didn't have them under Hussein) - they were the premier heavy tank till the ukrainan T80 came along - the T72 wasn't actually designed to slug it out with the Chally 2 or Abrahms - that was the jot of the T64 and T80.... which Ukraine makes those.


    sadly the simplest solution if for Russia to turn off the gas - give in or millions freeze.

    given the Ukraine army is now in the field - this could get very messy and quickly

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Quote Originally Posted by HalloweenJack View Post
    the Ukraine PM has asked the west to not get involved - and I understand the `why` - they pretty much field heavy tanks and mechanised infantry - so in a shooting war they can hold there own , the only weakness is the actual ability of the airforce , sadly most of which is in a state of repair BUT (they can field something like 80 mig 29`s and 40 or so su-27`s) , given any imminent hostilities , you can bet all levels of resources WILL be being thrown at the hundred of so mig 29`s in storage to get them combat ready.

    T-64`s (no Iraq didn't have them under Hussein) - they were the premier heavy tank till the ukrainan T80 came along - the T72 wasn't actually designed to slug it out with the Chally 2 or Abrahms - that was the jot of the T64 and T80.... which Ukraine makes those.


    sadly the simplest solution if for Russia to turn off the gas - give in or millions freeze.

    given the Ukraine army is now in the field - this could get very messy and quickly
    The T90 is basically a renamed and improved T72 - that is the bulk of what the Russians newest tanks. The factories which produced the T64 and T80 were in the Ukraine and they are heavier tanks.

    TBH,I think most of this is posturing,and its more to us in the west. Think of the stakes for them.

    NATO is expanding to the Russian borders. The EU is expanding to the Russian borders.

    The same thing happened in Serbia too after the NATO led war there.

    Everytime NATO/EU/any kind of US/EU influence starts getting close to home,the Russians tend to knee jerk back.

    Look in Syria for example?? Georgia?

    Like you said switching off gas would be a more easy way to do things. However,as people hopefully know that happened last time,when the subsidies to the Ukraine were temporarily withdrawn over a political row and the prices were charged at standard market rate. The Ukraine could not afford it at that price and the Russian companies shut it off. All political of course,but the part about the lower cost gas,tends to be forgotten. We pay much more for it.

    I don't think after the horrors of Chechyna the Russian public(or leaders) would want another bloody war. That alone would probably cost Putin his job - it probably was a major factor in Yeltsin loosing his position too.
    Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 02-03-2014 at 03:18 AM.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    I see selective censoring is taking place in a valid argument again.

    Hexus stomping on freedom of speech.

    erm.

    Capitalization is the difference between helping your Uncle Jack
    off a horse and helping your uncle jack off a horse.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    BUT as shown in GW2 when Iraq had a pair of full Russian T72 (not the export rubbish) - the Russian ERA can bounce DU , so any shooting war will get messy.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Quote Originally Posted by HalloweenJack View Post
    BUT as shown in GW2 when Iraq had a pair of full Russian T72 (not the export rubbish) - the Russian ERA can bounce DU , so any shooting war will get messy.
    Maybe,but it depends if there is a real hunger for a war though.

    Neither country is really prepared for war in reality. Chechnya was a trauma on the Russian people. It barely has ended - the Russians were quick to remove their people from Syria for example.

    The US and UK have far more appetite for war. Look at the amount of countries we have invaded or bombed since the cold war ended. That gives you a real indication of aggressive military intent. If the Russians had not sent significant naval assets to Syria,we would have bombed it back to the stone age already.

    Look at the massive expansion in the size and quantity of European aircraft and assault carriers?? These are all about increased global power projection.

    Like I said this is posturing for us. The same posturing in Serbia and the same in Syria. It could be like Georgia,but even that was relatively limited and the Ukraine is just better armed.

    The Russians used to counter us in the past too,but after the collapse of the USSR,they had no strength to do so. It does not matter what leader Russia has. Once the country started improving economically,it was always going to go back and re-assert itself on the world stage.

    People were silly if they thought Russia would just take a back burner on the world stage. If smaller countries like the UK and France don't,how can you expect them to not do the same??

    Russia has been a major global power for a long time with its own interests. No different from any of the major powers - the US,China,France,the UK and soon India. Each has exerted its influence if not locally,but worldwide for their own benefits. Each has effed over many countries. Also,in each country people have tried to ignore what their countries have done to achieve that power.

    I dare any of you to go around to various parts of the world and ask who is the most evil country is! You might be shocked by the different replies.

    Why this is news to people I don't know.

    I suppose we can't egg on the Chinese as we need their money now,the Indians are our new bulwark against China,Iran and North Korea have been done to boredom,so I suppose it leaves the Russians.
    Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 02-03-2014 at 04:16 AM.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Quote Originally Posted by GoNz0 View Post
    I see selective censoring is taking place in a valid argument again.

    Hexus stomping on freedom of speech.

    erm.
    What censorship?

    There have been several posts heavily edited, but by the member that made the pist, not by HEXUS.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    After moderators have stepped in. I was enjoying this thread. :-)

    Capitalization is the difference between helping your Uncle Jack
    off a horse and helping your uncle jack off a horse.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Quote Originally Posted by GoNz0 View Post
    Hexus stomping on freedom of speech.

    erm.
    There's no such thing as freedom of speech to be stomped on in the first place

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Emm,why was second state language law repealed nearly a week ago:

    http://www.politics.hu/20140225/scra...eign-ministry/

    That by extension would affect the biggest minority,ie,people who identify as Russian the most.

    But even though the ethnic problems in Russia have been well documented(neo-nazis for example which is kind of ironic too,and attacks on non-whites),it seems the Ukraine has the same issues,after looking at some reports in the last few years:

    http://observers.france24.com/conten...udents-ukraine
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...m-sol-campbell
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18162443
    http://www.aljazeera.com/sport/footb...915205269.html
    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Ar...3#.UxMCy4VvBDg

    Hmm,there might be a bit more to this than we suspect.

    It will be interesting too see when all the tempers have calmed down,what comes out.

    Edit!!

    A chart from the BBC:

    http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/image...e_divide_2.gif



    Those are verifible results - areas with a higher percentage of Russian speakers voted for the former president. Its not so black and white as it is being indicated in the last few months.

    Of course the Russians also have an economic reason for their actions too - gas pipelines to Europe pass through the Ukraine too. The Russian Black Sea fleet is stationed on Ukranian soil too,and even though there are longterm agreements to keep it until 2042,it is quite possible the new government might want to change that. That would mean the Russians would loose access to the Mediterranean Sea,and their support for Syria has partly been to keep the naval resupply base at Tartarus.

    For Russia there would be a loss of naval power projection in that part of the world,ie,Europe and indeed the middle east and Asia via the Suez canal. It would take years to build another naval base to replace the one they use currently.

    That and with many people in the Russian-Ukranian border regions,appearing to be more likely to be pro-Russian it seems we can see why the Russians are trying to play hardball.
    Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 02-03-2014 at 01:11 PM.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Quote Originally Posted by CAT-THE-FIFTH View Post
    Emm,why was second state language law repealed nearly a week ago:

    http://www.politics.hu/20140225/scra...eign-ministry/

    That by extension would affect the biggest minority,ie,people who identify as Russian the most.

    But even though the ethnic problems in Russia have been well documented(neo-nazis for example which is kind of ironic too,and attacks on non-whites),it seems the Ukraine has the same issues,after looking at some reports in the last few years:

    http://observers.france24.com/conten...udents-ukraine
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...m-sol-campbell
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18162443
    http://www.aljazeera.com/sport/footb...915205269.html
    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Ar...3#.UxMCy4VvBDg

    Hmm,there might be a bit more to this than we suspect.

    It will be interesting too see when all the tempers have calmed down,what comes out.

    You are a complete troll with no idea what you are talking about! You need to go to another thread and spread your FUD there.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18253420

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18239047

    Anyone can pull up articles referring to racist attacks from any one of the countries involved in this crisis, they can also search and find articles from western countries including the UK and France, Germany, Spain.

    A number of clubs all over the UK and other EU countries have been accused of racist conduct from fans. But these are thankfully a minority.

    so stop pedaling your trash, half baked agenda and move along.
    Last edited by j1979; 02-03-2014 at 01:12 PM.

  12. #28
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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Quote Originally Posted by j1979 View Post
    You are a complete troll with no idea what you are talking about! You need to go to another thread and spread your FUD there.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18253420

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18239047

    Anyone can pull up articles referring to racist attacks from any one of the countries involved in this crisis, they can also search and find articles from western countries including the UK and France, Germany, Spain.

    A number of clubs all over the UK and other EU countries have been accused of racist conduct from fans. But these are thankfully a minority.

    so stop pedaling your trash, half baked agenda and move along.
    Yawn. Its funny when not all the links were about football.

    It seems you are so biased,you deflect all negativity about the Ukraine from everyone.

    Its easy to blame external countries,but most of the problems in the Ukraine are down to a weak political elite,plus general corruption and racism in the country as a whole.

    Its the corruption in the country which has lead to its problems. The fault of its own people.

    Its happened in South America,Africa,Asia,etc. The Ukraine has 23 years of independence,and still has metric ton of problems.

    All you have poxy nationalists fighting among themselves looking for enemies.

    By running to the Russians or the EU and US,the country is always going to be under the thumb of some more powerful country. It really needs less nationalism and more patriotism and people who generally care more about the country and all its different peoples,than currying favour with external forces or hating on different kinds of people.

    Powerful countries only help weaker ones to help themselves and will exploit them. Its the reason why Europe and US sit on nearly 2/3 of the world's wealth alone,with barely 1 billion people out of the 7+ billion people on this planet.
    Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 02-03-2014 at 01:26 PM.

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    The third dynamic when it comes to Crimea is Turkey. At the moment in Turkey they are very concerned as to the fate of what the see as there subjects the Crimean Tartars. The city of Yevpatoriya in Crimea has a lot of Tartars and Turks. Ukraine and Turkey have special visa status.

    At the moment the Turks are siding with the Ukrainians.

    NATO also stepping in now!

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/view...snowstorm.html

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    Quote Originally Posted by CAT-THE-FIFTH View Post
    Yawn. Its funny when not all the links were about football.
    What has that got to do with it? I can pull up links on racist attacks not involving football from any EU county or ex CIS country. It makes no difference.

    The most blatant racism I ever experienced in my life was in southern Spain. Other people will have diffent experiences.

    So (removed veiled searing) and find start a new thread if you want. Im sure if i was going off topic, it would be pointed out.
    Last edited by g8ina; 03-03-2014 at 12:52 PM. Reason: swearing veil

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    If Russia can offer Crimea an IN referendum when Crimea is not Russian Territory, why can't it offer a OUT referendum in Chechnya that is a Russian Federation subject?

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    Re: Ukraine, Russia and Crimea situation

    http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_107663.htm

    NATO getting involved now - likely from Turkey side.

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