Boris is Boss

[Galant]

Ian Austin, former Labour MP, with an emotional moment on radio - Corbyn is unfit to lead, vote Tory...

This is a weird/unique/dont-have-the-adjective time in politics.

https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/statu...167735296?s=20

[Domestic_Ginger]

Interestingly the leave voters are dying off. About 1m down now. People now old enough to vote are about 5:1 remain. I'm not sure the referendum should stand as the slim majority has probably gone.

The gov. failed to appoint someone to the EU commission has ticked me off. They're suing us and rightly so but this will be spun to appeal to the man kicked in the head by a horse.

[neonplanet40]

The whole thing is a mess. I do believe a second referendum on the deal that has been negotiated is the only real way out of the stalemate. Also, much has changed since the vote took place. I don't get how it is undemocratic to push for that. However, if the Tories get their majority, I expect a no deal.

[Zak33]

The whole thing is a mess. I do believe a second referendum on the deal that has been negotiated is the only real way out of the stalemate. Also, much has changed since the vote took place. I don't get how it is undemocratic to push for that. However, if the Tories get their majority, I expect a no deal.

if that happened, what was the point of the first one? In fact, would we have another one to confirm the one you propose? I know why you want one and IF it could be an end tpo it... OK.. but it won't be.

What we need is a THING to occur. A leave, with or without a deal. A thing must occur,.... no more stale mate.. and then everyone can get on with working out HOW to deak with it

Another reforendum will be another delay and we will sink.... we will go under. Indecision is the killer.

No deal- nightmare
Part deal - semi nightmare
Cancel Leave - why did we let people vote?

But delay it..... worst nightmare of all.. because we will just be doing all this for longer and longer.

I've said it before and I will say it again... we've gotta do something, no matter how ugly, fast.. so every single business can make a decision and we can move on so that in a decade we can see the results and be coming out of the tidal wave of hell that anything will create..

but to stay in limbo... is to die

[Top_gun]

if that happened, what was the point of the first one? In fact, would we have another one to confirm the one you propose? I know why you want one and IF it could be an end tpo it... OK.. but it won't be.

What we need is a THING to occur. A leave, with or without a deal. A thing must occur,.... no more stale mate.. and then everyone can get on with working out HOW to deak with it

Another reforendum will be another delay and we will sink.... we will go under. Indecision is the killer.

No deal- nightmare
Part deal - semi nightmare
Cancel Leave - why did we let people vote?

But delay it..... worst nightmare of all.. because we will just be doing all this for longer and longer.

I've said it before and I will say it again... we've gotta do something, no matter how ugly, fast.. so every single business can make a decision and we can move on so that in a decade we can see the results and be coming out of the tidal wave of hell that anything will create..

but to stay in limbo... is to die

It's a momentous event to leave the EU so it's important that the country choose the right path for reason of economics rather racism and sloganism.

We can all agree the debate in 2016 was extremely poor and people have learnt a lot more since then.

Given the travel of direction where younger people are pro EU and the older Brexit supporters are expiring then the second referendum makes a lot of sense. The Brexiters won the campaign on sloganism and exploiting the racist & least intelligent elements of our society instead of making a strong economic case. No one actually knows the Brexit economic strategy despite three and half years on from the last referendum.

[Galant]

It's a momentous event to leave the EU so it's important that the country choose the right path for reason of economics rather racism and sloganism.

We can all agree the debate in 2016 was extremely poor and people have learnt a lot more since then.

Given the travel of direction where younger people are pro EU and the older Brexit supporters are expiring then the second referendum makes a lot of sense. The Brexiters won the campaign on sloganism and exploiting the racist & least intelligent elements of our society instead of making a strong economic case. No one actually knows the Brexit economic strategy despite three and half years on from the last referendum.

I'm sorry Top_Gun but you just can't make this sort of statement. It's thoroughly insulting, if not irresponsible, to associate leave voters with racism, lower intelligence etc. and then, secondary to that, state as final that the economics question is the central or most important question. If I wanted to be belligerent I could state that someone who believes this is in fact the the less informed, if not less intelligent, and bigoted person, but I know that's not you. It's just a common and poor accusation levelled at Brexit. Even if someone were to concede the points it would also be unbalanced in that no mention is made of the similar sloganism, generalism, and lies proffered by the remain side of the argument. The suggestion could also be considered disingenuous because the economics question is one that is almost impossible to pin down. Economic predictions are tenuous at best - something the remain side should be very, very aware of considering how thoroughly wrong they have been just this far.

In addition, Brexit, despite the cries and clamour of the remain side, is not one thing, or one outcome. Nor is the EU deal the same as Brexit. Brexit is essentially starting a new page or episode in British history where the rules get changed, and can be re-written. What the UK will be after leaving the EU no-one knows because it has yet to be determined. As such it is essentially impossible to make economic predictions, and that being the case, attempting to make the Brexit decision based on economic predictions might be the most pointless, and worst way to go about things. Brexit is not essentially a budget question. Brexit is, at its essence, an independence question. It's about the right to set one's own laws and policies and to stand or fall by them. Or, at least, the question to be able to have a say on these issues in the light of many significant moves by government, over decades, to move the UK forward into such arrangements without giving the people a say at various significant stages along the way.

There will be, of course, economic and budgetary consequences, both immediately and over time, just like any of political decision, but those are secondary effects and they can and will change over time as the British government work through successive governments and policies.

With regards the poor debate... if voters are going to base their voting on a few TV debates or Youtube videos then I'm not sure anything is going to be good enough. Those people who wanted to look deeper had plenty of opportunity and information. There were no end of organisations, groups, think tanks, universities and articles available. I wonder what it is, exactly, that people think was missing from the 'debate' that could be improved? We talk often enough here about political lies and spin. The major parties aren't going to get any better at that. They'll still spin things and avoid questions and redirect to talking points. Anyone who actually wants information is going to have to do their own digging. That brings us back to any voting process in general though. The more logical among the population (over-represented at Hexus I would expect) often want to find the 'right' answer to any problem or discussion. We want to process everything until we come at last to the true solution, and that applies to Brexit too. We think that we can look at it and come up with which choice is, objectively, the 'right' answer. But the reality with Brexit, as with General Elections, is that there is no 'right' answer. People vote how they want to vote and based on their own priorities. Even if there were such a thing as a 'right' answer, you would have to say there are actually several such answers, it just depends on one's priorities. If economics is the major rule by which to measure success and thus find the 'right' answer, then you would prioritise finding the solution that delivers it. That is fraught with problems though - a strong economy over what time frame? Based on whose predictions? etc. Then again, if the question is about 'small government', or a left/right politics, or free movement, or immigration controls, or the right to self-governance, or something else, well then, you'd have to consider things in the light of those questions. So again, what about the debate was missing then that can be improved now - especially considering that we haven't really advanced anything at all - Brexit still hasn't happened?

[neonplanet40]

if that happened, what was the point of the first one? In fact, would we have another one to confirm the one you propose? I know why you want one and IF it could be an end tpo it... OK.. but it won't be.

What we need is a THING to occur. A leave, with or without a deal. A thing must occur,.... no more stale mate.. and then everyone can get on with working out HOW to deak with it

Another reforendum will be another delay and we will sink.... we will go under. Indecision is the killer.

No deal- nightmare
Part deal - semi nightmare
Cancel Leave - why did we let people vote?

But delay it..... worst nightmare of all.. because we will just be doing all this for longer and longer.

I've said it before and I will say it again... we've gotta do something, no matter how ugly, fast.. so every single business can make a decision and we can move on so that in a decade we can see the results and be coming out of the tidal wave of hell that anything will create..

but to stay in limbo... is to die

To be honest, regardless of what happens, British democracy needs to wake up. Having a referendum surrounded in lies from both sides led to this mess. Pushing through a vote with no plan of what would happen after led to this mess. Parties only interested in their OWN agenda has led to this mess. Having a 2 party system has led to this mess.

It is all linked. I'm in Scotland and I really see the Union breaking up soon after this. Northern Ireland will be drifting away as a result of this as well. Our democracy and our union is no longer fit for purpose.

Maybe I sound dramatic, but I can seriously imagine in fifty years (hopefully if I'm alive!) reading a modern history book which links the collapse of the Union to this event as the final nail.

[Zak33]

To be honest, regardless of what happens, British democracy needs to wake up. Having a referendum surrounded in lies from both sides led to this mess. Pushing through a vote with no plan of what would happen after led to this mess. Parties only interested in their OWN agenda has led to this mess. Having a 2 party system has led to this mess.

It is all linked. I'm in Scotland and I really see the Union breaking up soon after this. Northern Ireland will be drifting away as a result of this as well. Our democracy and our union is no longer fit for purpose.

Maybe I sound dramatic, but I can seriously imagine in fifty years (hopefully if I'm alive!) reading a modern history book which links the collapse of the Union to this event as the final nail.

Utertly agree with you. On all counts in that post. Utterly. And you're not being dramatic tbh bud.. you're spot on.

But the PEOPLE of the United Kindom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland all want one thing... to get on with life and not see this storm rage any longer. Because it's killing us all.


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Top Gun's reply to my post was less polite and outright offensive tbh, but Neon.. we agree bud. truly. Its the just way out of this we cant see... and no one else can either.

[Zak33]

It's a momentous event to leave the EU so it's important that the country choose the right path for reason of economics rather racism and sloganism.

We can all agree the debate in 2016 was extremely poor and people have learnt a lot more since then.

Given the travel of direction where younger people are pro EU and the older Brexit supporters are expiring then the second referendum makes a lot of sense. The Brexiters won the campaign on sloganism and exploiting the racist & least intelligent elements of our society instead of making a strong economic case. No one actually knows the Brexit economic strategy despite three and half years on from the last referendum.

not sure you've been more offensive in the time you've een here tbh.

so... please expand on the "racist and least intteligent elements of our society" part of your argument and show us examples.

that way we can be sure you are being serious and not just sensationalist

[Top_gun]

not sure you've been more offensive in the time you've een here tbh.

so... please expand on the "racist and least intteligent elements of our society" part of your argument and show us examples.

that way we can be sure you are being serious and not just sensationalist

Not sure how much evidence you want but I'm going to brief here as I've an appointment.

1) Exit poll data after the referendum indicated educational attainment as indicator of which way you would have voted.
2) Spike in hate crimes since the referendum
3) There has been post-mortem analysis of the Brexit campaign

My reasons are entirely based on what's available in the news arena.

[Zak33]

Not sure how much evidence you want but I'm going to brief here as I've an appointment.

1) Exit poll data after the referendum indicated educational attainment as indicator of which way you would have voted.
2) Spike in hate crimes since the referendum
3) There has been post-mortem analysis of the Brexit campaign

My reasons are entirely based on what's available in the news arena.

This exit poll ? People with A levels were 50/50 split and people above A level but below Degree were more in favour of leaving? That one?

Leaving the polarising "Degree or above" vs "GSCE or lower".... on that exit pole.

Sample Size: 5,455 UK Adults Fieldwork: 23rd - 24th June 2016
Electorate : 46,800,000 (to nearest 100,000)
Turn Out : 69% = 32,292,000
Postal Votes were 18% of the votes so 26,479,440 went to a polling station

5,455 / 26,479,400 x 100 = 0.0206% were asked what qualifictions they had.

I'd ignore stats like that tbh, and look around the "news arena" and see who else voted to leave.
Check the intellect level and see how it fares. Ensure you see all the voters. Not use a white wash statement with a paint roller.

Even the Gov document states that "older people with fewer formal qualifications more like to vote remain" - so it's likely more age related when it comes to the vote and that's where the education part comes from

So I think we can safely, after 3 years "post mortem" not call Exiter's "least intelligent"

And we haven't even started on the racism card...have we?

[Saracen999]

To be honest, regardless of what happens, British democracy needs to wake up. Having a referendum surrounded in lies from both sides led to this mess. Pushing through a vote with no plan of what would happen after led to this mess. Parties only interested in their OWN agenda has led to this mess. Having a 2 party system has led to this mess.

It is all linked. I'm in Scotland and I really see the Union breaking up soon after this. Northern Ireland will be drifting away as a result of this as well. Our democracy and our union is no longer fit for purpose.

Maybe I sound dramatic, but I can seriously imagine in fifty years (hopefully if I'm alive!) reading a modern history book which links the collapse of the Union to this event as the final nail.

The majority of those sdvocating Scottish indepence were doing so years, even decades, before Brexit. Brexit is a convenirnt whipping boy for them.

And blaming it on "democracy" is simply disingenuous.

Fact is, Scotland (overall) prefers to Remain.

But England, with 10x (-ish) the population prefers to Leave. To assert that we should Remain because Scots, a small fraction of English let alone UK population) is to assert that regardless of the referendum-expressed population of Scotland somehow veto the referendum-expressed and much, much larger population of England.

In what sense is about 10% vetoing 90% "democracy"?

It's certainly is an argument for Scottish indepence if Scotland values being in the EU more than the UK, and I express no view on whether that is the case or not.

As for the view 50 years hence, who knows The EU may have collapsed by then and getting out (from something that even now we aren't fully in) may be seen as prescient. From this point in time, it's pure soeculation.

Collapsing the Union? That's been the SNP objective for years, and Brexit hasn't changed that.

[Saracen999]

There is a flaw in the "younger people vote A, and older people vote B" argument. Well, several actually, including that it's very dismissive of the possibility that those older people, in the course of their 50, 60, 70 or more years of life experience, jyst might have learned something that those just foming out of education, or still in it, haven't. But I'm not going to argue that one.

The other flaw is that peoples views when young are often ideallistic, even rebellious, but have litle experience to hang it on. As they gain experience, those views can change. Beieve it or not, all old people started out young, and they usually remember what it was like. Younger people often seem to believe older people were norn that way, and think that their antics are somehow new, and that oldies won't see through what they get up to, missing the fact that us oldies were getting up to it before you were born. In fact, in some cases, it's why you were born.

Anyway, in short, don't assume that young people will always believe in what they believe in now.

And, of course, it's not that there is young and old. It's not binary. People born 5, 10 or 20 years before "young" people are the respective number of years down the line., It's a sliding graduation. Young people soon find themselves middle-aged, and the middle-aged soon find themselves old. Sadly.

[neonplanet40]

I would say the belief that "the majority of those advocating Scottish independence" have been doing it for years is false (other than the SNP as a party doing so). There is a majority of scots (people, not politicians) now advocating it. Opinion up here has shifted rapidly over the past year towards independence - and a majority now want independence as part of the EU. All the latest polls are showing that upwards trend. As each month of Brexit drags on and we edge closer to leaving, this majority creeps up.

As for Scotland having the final say over Brexit - no that would not be fair, I agree. However, Scotland was told (pre indyref 1) that Scotland was an EQUAL partner to the UK. In other words, as a country, their views would be equal (not population-based). However, I never believed that was the case. And the tories have never acted as such. For example, they have been able to make a deal where NI can have a separate deal with the EU. Can we honestly believe that something similar couldn't have been done for Scotland? That way, every nation in the UK gets what it voted for. Yes, I know there was concerns around the Good Friday agreement, but no attempt was ever made to add Scotland to this type of deal. It is ignoring Scotlands will to be a part of the EU that has increased the need and want of indy2.

But the reality is that the UK no longer works for Scotland. Politically, socially and culturally we are shifting further apart. Maybe this can't be seen from England, but I can see and hear it from everyone I meet and talk to. The people of Scotland can see how well we can do with devolution (which is only a fraction of the powers an independent country could have) and are starting to wonder how much better we could be as an independent nation.

[Saracen999]

As for economic arguments versus racism and sloganism, as an economist I've explained the economic arguments a number of times, only to be met with accusations of racism, "little englander" and even, 8ver Eurozone membership, "just wanting the Queen's head on the currency.

If that isn't sloganism, I don't know what is.

I studied econometrics, at advanced degree level. I studied it enough to know, with some certainty, that econometric models are not good at predicting the results of unprecedented events. The data-centric way in which they're built means they can't be. They can be a decent, as in "best we have" predictors of general trends where we've seen it before but they cannot accurately predict unique and unprecedented ecents. Then, it comes down to how the people running the models expect those events to work, so the models reflect that view. And, GIGO, which means the confidence level takes a hit.

Anybody that tells you they know the economic impact of Leaving, both negative and positive (and both exist) is either ignorant of the way models work, a liar or an idiot.

[Zak33]

But the reality is that the UK no longer works for Scotland. Politically, socially and culturally we are shifting further apart. Maybe this can't be seen from England, but I can see and hear it from everyone I meet and talk to. The people of Scotland can see how well we can do with devolution (which is only a fraction of the powers an independent country could have) and are starting to wonder how much better we could be as an independent nation.

I do see it a little and it saddens me.

The entire Brexit disaster has fueled things that didn't need realy need fueling.
But we are where we are, and we all need to do what's best. Except we can't. We have to all agree to do something.
And we cant agree what's best, and it's been three long years of not agreeing.

I don't think another referendum is the right thing, because it will just drag out the torment.