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About LinkBacksThat's good news, and moves closer to the Oxford model. Lots more asymptomatic infections than the original model expected. Can we fix the economy now?Originally Posted by Galant
That's good news, and moves closer to the Oxford model. Lots more asymptomatic infections than the original model expected. Can we fix the economy now?
The original model was used by a group of activists to create a website called covidactnow.org. This has been used all over the US by state governors and local officials to implement their virus response. It turns out, this website was created with the stated purpose of pushing for this kind of action in order to influence the election, rather than to provide accurate data. Something tells me they didn't expect things to go as far as they have. Is it possible that media manipulation and electioneering have destroyed the World's economy?
I think you're cherry picking. The updated model is based on maintaining social distancing. It also cautions against some of the Oxford model. note:
Most importantly, it [the oxford model] assumes that most people who contract the virus don’t show symptoms and that very few need to go to hospital. “I don’t think that’s consistent with the observed data,” Ferguson told the committee.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz6HqC6rE3i
Who witnessed people outside their door last night at 8pm then? I live facing a large field, surrounded by houses, the volume of people that came out with whistles, clangers, even a pan and wooden spoon, or just clapping.. It was truly amazing. The hairs on the back of my neck stood up seeing so many people getting involved and showing appreciation.
Now, all I hope for is we learn some lessons from this.
Sort of. There's a bit of an online debate about it right now. Ferguson is definitely not apologetic or admitting any really error or change. Others, though, are looking at the revisions and are suggesting that it's simply way too little, too soon for this change to simply be a matter of changes implemented putting the current forecast into his best-case scenario. Something else has to have been revised.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/...s-of-modelling
Last edited by Galant; 27-03-2020 at 09:56 AM.
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Here in Gibraltar it looks like we're about the government is going to start a testing program, a Tweet went out today about a press release as follows, I don't know if the UK government has implemented anything like this so far, at least, not in the same way?
"The Gibraltar Health Authority (GHA) is responsible for keeping Gibraltarians safe from disease and it needs to collect as much information as possible to steer us through this crisis.
In order to do so, the GHA needs to test a proportion of the population of Gibraltar for Coronavirus, to assess the prevalence of the virus in the population.
Some of us will be receiving phone calls from the GHA over the coming days, asking that we participate in the survey. The caller will explain the procedure fully, but the aim is to make it as easy as possible to participate.
It is extremely important to co-operate fully, as the information gathered will be crucial for the GHA to assess the current situation and plan further action. Your result will of course be made available to you.
Remember, your participation will help to save lives.
The GHA would like to take this opportunity to thank the people of Gibraltar for their incredible support in the face of the Coronavirus crisis. We are ONE and we will beat this virus.
The Chief Minister Fabian Picardo said: ‘This initiative will allow the GHA to know how far the virus has already spread in our community and enable us to plan the best course of action to take in the days and weeks ahead. If you receive a phone call, please co-operate with the medical professionals and be part of Team Gibraltar. Be in no doubt, having this data will save lives.’"
https://www.gibraltar.gov.gi/press-r...r-2332020-5751
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No they aren't doing that here but they should have done from the start!
Day 5 and I already getting fed up of staying in, can't see the people lasting longer than 3 weeks if they try to extend it. Hopefully the curve will flatten and they can get more and more testing for everyone, not just the nhs and patients.
Though personally I don't think they will ever get rid of it and want people indoors just to stop everyone getting it at the same time and filling the hospitals, tin foil hat is back on now
Jon
Not sure that's tin foil hat territory. Isn't that the expressed aim - the point of flattening the curve? It's trying to slow the spread and keeping it manageable.Though personally I don't think they will ever get rid of it and want people indoors just to stop everyone getting it at the same time and filling the hospitals, tin foil hat is back on now
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Indeed that is true
Jon
Johnson has got it, mild symptoms which is what I expect most people will get, need to keep an eye on elderly and vulnerable groups. Worrying times for anyone though.
Jon
Sadly, staying indoors is also detrimental to health. From people with preexisting conditions going downhill due to inactivity and the stress of unemployment, to increased alcohol issues and domestic violence... My healthcare worker friends have already seen increased admissions due to these issues. The quarantine can't last forever, and extending it to more than a couple of weeks may be counterproductive.
Jonj1611 (27-03-2020)
Completely agree
Jon
Very interesting film on ITV2 last night - "Contagion" mirrors with uncanny accuracy, but with much increased morbidity, the events of now with COVID-19 !
Well worth a watch if you've not already done so !
Cheers, David
Not yet seen it, but it seems they had the very best research: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...-whats-coming/
I see they are rolling out an antigen test, wouldn't it have been better to find an antibody test? Being told you have had it and are now immune is surely better than being told you don't have it?
Jon
Exactly. Both would be the best use
Jonj1611 (28-03-2020)
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