It would be more accurate to use the word 'Detections', given how vast the difference in ability to test is in different countries and at different times.Originally Posted by j1979
Yeah we have to be very cautious when directly comparing figures between different countries, whether that's total cases, deaths or fatality rate. Different testing and recording procedures between countries can result in vastly different reported figures for the same scenario.
I think the only ones who can be reliable trusted in terms of cases and mortality rates are S.Korea and Taiwan:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
A rough mortality rate could be deaths / total which is 1.7% and 1.6%.
If we only were to use the recovered figures then the mortality rate is 3.0% and 12.8% in Taiwan. But I think the general time to recovery (or death) is pretty constant. So most of those Active cases are probably quite recent.
WorldOMeters do have those figures (daily new etc.) but that's a far harder calculation to do.
1.6% is a lot lot more than flu though.
South Korea still only tested 270000 people by the 17th of March,and they have 51 million people. So realistically there are probably more people who have very minor symptoms,who recover but have never been tested.I think the only ones who can be reliable trusted in terms of cases and mortality rates are S.Korea and Taiwan:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
A rough mortality rate could be deaths / total which is 1.7% and 1.6%.
If we only were to use the recovered figures then the mortality rate is 3.0% and 12.8% in Taiwan. But I think the general time to recovery (or death) is pretty constant. So most of those Active cases are probably quite recent.
WorldOMeters do have those figures (daily new etc.) but that's a far harder calculation to do.
1.6% is a lot lot more than flu though.
Of the 270000 tested,less than 10000 people have been confirmed as positive,and even then a lot of the South Korean cases are due to a large Church which had an event with 1000s of people in close proximity.
Sure, but they did extensive contact tracing otherwise they wouldn't be getting so few new cases per day even now.
AFAIK they haven't done a lockdown so even a few people with minor symptoms who were missed could have infected 10,000s more. So I doubt they missed too many.
So, jut thinking out loud, but wouldn't it have been easier to work on isolating the most vulnerable individuals in society, and letting the rest of the population get on with life as normal except for social conditioning, and the impact on the people's live in terms of family members affected etc? Some testing etc. could be focused on those who need contact with vulnerable individuals etc. or wide-spread contact etc.
That would seem more sustainable in the long term and have less of an impact on the economy.
No?
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Of all the cult members questioned, 9000 admitted to having had symptoms. Only 2000 of those tested positive. The other 7000 had either recovered prior to testing, or had the flu, or a cold. Given that most people >50%, have no symptoms at all, the chances of there being a significant number of undetected infections is very high.
This is what we should be doing. The economic damage caused by this shut down is likely to be worse than the disease.
One does wonder why, if it was clear that most people will be fine, that 100% of the focus wasn't on identifying and helping those people, and working on the issue outward from there, rather than just locking down the whole planet....
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South Korea appears to have been very successful in that.
The US has turned it into the usual political infighting and incompetence.
The US government over a decade ago initiated a programme with smaller companies to deploy 10s of 1000s of lower cost ventilators:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/b...-shortage.html
Bigger companies fearing lost revenue,bought up the smaller companies and shut down their side of the programme,hence essentially dooming it.
OMG that sums up the US hyper-capitalist BS right there. Anyone who argues for completely free market economics (as opposed to mixed economy - I'm not a raving communist) needs to look hard at that. If that had been a state-owned enterprise, or at least the state had shares in it, would that have ended out that way? You don't have to be Einstein to see the BS in the US health and wider supplier system. People are literally dying now as a result. It sickens me.
I live in a very conservative part of northern england and I'm noticing the penny finally dropping on how bad the conservatives truly are. I've always been progressive and got into MAAAANY heated debates with those around me over various things but lately lot of die hard conservatives are complaining about the tories and their truly awful response to all of this.
It's disgusting really.
There are many flaws to the US healthcare system, but it remains to be seen just how big of an impact it will have. The Federal Government is extremely good at throwing resources at a problem after it has occurred, and the US healthcare system is set up the same way. How that will play out in the next month will affect everyone.
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