Coronavirus

[j1979]

Latest estimate from the UK's Chief Scientific adviser has 10,000 infected in the UK, indicating 95% or cases are going untested and untreated. This allows a more comparable estimate with the Flu mortality rate among estimated cases, that keeps being thrown around online. As expected, Coronavirus is far less deadly. Time to pull back from the edge a little....

Take precautions, wash your hands and don't go to work sick....

We are 3 weeks behind italy
2 behind spain

[TeePee]

We are 3 weeks behind italy
2 behind spain

On ability to roll out mass testing? Maybe....

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

People still need to go to work in critical industries unless we want the whole country to fall to pieces,and for there to be no food,no food transport,no medicine production,etc. Its not totally possible to ask everyone to stay at home - that didn't even happen during the 1918 flu pandemic,and most people will still need to go and buy food. Not everyone is an internet prepping expert,who has months of food(or has that kind of money) and 20 freezers. Even 2~3 weeks is still going to be hard for most people,especially if you have a large family and live in a city.

[sammyc]

NSPCC say children under 12 should not be left for long, and under 16 over night. but there is no laws and we are in a crissis. We could quite easily close secondary schools. If a 12 YO needs and NHS worker to look after them at home the surely they are pupils that need NHS staff at school.

Parents that are NHS workers, I took it.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Just seen this mentioned:
https://www.channel4.com/news/rapid-...for-uk-release

A British company has developed a rapid diagnostic self-testing kit for Covid-19 – Channel 4 News can exclusively reveal.

A British company has developed a rapid diagnostic self-testing kit for Covid-19 – Channel 4 News can exclusively reveal.

The 10-minute testing kit for Covid-19 will be distributed around the UK from next week – in what is believed to be the first rapid test available in this country.

The kits will be distributed for use by health care professionals next week – in order that pharmacists are able to test their staff.

Channel 4 News was given exclusive access as the company prepared the highly sought-after kits – and have been told that they hope to make the self-testing kits available to the public within three weeks.

The company says results can be obtained in around 10 minutes. Currently NHS testing takes four hours. The new kit works in the same way blood sugar is tested by using a pin prick on patients’ thumbs.

Given the obvious demand, the company have requested we do not detail their name or the location of where they are based – for the time being.

So a new 10 minute onsite coronavirus test has been developed by a UK company called Mologic. Previously tests had to be sent back to a laboratory.

[j1979]

People still need to go to work in critical industries unless we want the whole country to fall to pieces,and for there to be no food,no food transport,no medicine production,etc. Its not totally possible to ask everyone to stay at home - that didn't even happen during the 1918 flu pandemic,and most people will still need to go and buy food. Not everyone is an internet prepping expert,who has months of food(or has that kind of money) and 20 freezers. Even 2~3 weeks is still going to be hard for most people,especially if you have a large family and live in a city.

Who were you talking to? If it was a reply to me, then i should point out that I said office workers, that have an internet connection. Not vital services. And for those who don't know how to plug in a Cat5, im sure they know someone who does.

I just don't see how in a country with a higher population density than Italy, Spain, Germany or even China, that allowing people to mingle at this stage is benifical if it's avoidable.

Lets hope im wrong. But lots of experts are saying the same as me, and the tories want to protect the ecconomy, in the mean time hoping it doesn't wipe out a chunk of their core support age group.

off topic but,
i'll hazard a guess; brexitiers are 4 times more likely to die due to demographics.

[j1979]

On ability to roll out mass testing? Maybe....

or maybe when there is a vaccine, it will become another flu like threat.

[scaryjim]

... I just don't see how in a country with a higher population density than Italy, Spain, Germany or even China, ...

Not disagreeing with your point in general, but it's worth noting that the dispersal of those populations is actually pretty different - both Spain and Italy have their population more highly concentrated in their urban areas. So Spain has over a third of its population in just four Urban areas, Italy in 6. In the UK you have to go to 11 urban areas to hit the same proportion. We're more densely populated but - outside of London - more evenly distributed.

So it's entirely possible that if you feed our population distribution into the models you might get different results.

And that's not to mention the behavioural factors that you'd need to consider as well.

As I say, not disagreeing with your point in general - I am surprised that more action isn't being taken - but I can see that there are factors that would impact the outcome of any modelling and make it different between here and those other countries.

[j1979]

Not disagreeing with your point in general, but it's worth noting that the dispersal of those populations is actually pretty different - both Spain and Italy have their population more highly concentrated in their urban areas. So Spain has over a third of its population in just four Urban areas, Italy in 6. In the UK you have to go to 11 urban areas to hit the same proportion. We're more densely populated but - outside of London - more evenly distributed.

So it's entirely possible that if you feed our population distribution into the models you might get different results.

And that's not to mention the behavioural factors that you'd need to consider as well.

As I say, not disagreeing with your point in general - I am surprised that more action isn't being taken - but I can see that there are factors that would impact the outcome of any modelling and make it different between here and those other countries.

But the deaths are in mixed areas, I live in Barcelona, a town 15k from me only has a population of 80k but 3 deaths so far was placed in lockdown today .

Also we have more cases in the UK than when Wuhan was shut down and everyone went into lockdown and no one can leave thier appartment.

[scaryjim]

That town 15k away could well be in the Barcelona urban area though - they're measured by continuous settlement. I'm currently 20k from 'Manchester' but I'm in the Manchester urban area.

The localised cases in the UK make interesting reading. The vast majority of the cases are in London and the surrounding commuter-belt counties. Outside of that we're still only at a small handful of infections per locality - with clusters around the urban centres. That's very much what I'd expect - large conurbations like London (and Madrid and Barcelona) basically ensure that as many different people as possible come into contact with each other. The smaller your conurbation, the fewer different people mingle in the centre, and the less transmission you get. The UK's population is basically dispersed in such a way that runaway infection is less likely, and will impact a smaller proportion of the population. So I can believe that a proper modelling might suggest that wide-scale shutdowns and lockdowns wouldn't have such a significant impact in the UK.

We're a different place. The models start with different postulates. That means there's a reasonable chance you'll get different answers.

Again, I'm not saying they've necessarily got it right. But this is a different place, under different circumstances; it's naive to think we should automatically do the same things everyone else is doing.

[g8ina]

closed for review, dont forget to get it nice and polite chaps n chapesses.

[g8ina]

reopened, be nice.

[AC81]

For anyone struggling with getting food.
Check facebook/have a google for resturant suppliers.
As many resturants/bars/hotels are closing or suffering reduced trade. A number of the food suppliers to these businesses are shifting to home deliveries.

[pp05]

There was a doc on sky news earlier saying they don't have test kits to test staff within their NHS trust yet. Let's hope we get our house in order.

Isolation will slow it down. Otherwise we will have an Italian situation here. I think plenty have already had something that looks like it, so may have some immunity. But again, no way to confirm it yet.

[Domestic_Ginger]

It may be too late already.

Although on a somber note I went to see the elderly gentleman who lives on the corner to make sure he was ok and if he needed anything not to hesistate to ask. He was looking a littl pale last time I saw him and he has sold his car. He has always been kind to my kids and asks after them.

After a slight pause the door opened and I can say without a doubt he looks in better condition than me! He's 90+ and fine. He was very interested in the children and was thankful I was checking on him.

[pp05]

And the Pritti Patel stuff, and the Russia Report and the lead up to the budget, all stealthed into the background

The budget was much ado about nothing. It was vacuous. But now, he is getting out his contactless card and doing what needs to be done. Just have to see how easy it is for those on paye to get paid. We need people to relax about money worries and stay indoors. Hopefully today's announcements help with that. In China, people have been at home for 50 or so days, they will soon be getting back to normal. UK is looking at end of May, maybe extending to June.