This is grim reading:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts
"The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak."
Its going to be a rough month for the UK, even if this is only remotely close to being correct.
They are counting everyone who dies in hospital with a confirmed case. Die from cancer after testing positive, and you are counted.Originally Posted by j1979
It isn't. They have had to make significant revisions to their US model, but haven't changed the UK model yet. They were over estimating hospitalizations by over four times. In the UK, they estimated 1600 deaths yesterday, compared to 880 actual.
They need to adjust the numbers as ONS reporting is indicating the "official numbers" are a bit misleading,ie,only people in hospitals are being counted,so if they start including other deaths too the number will rise. It is estimated for example at least 1000 people in care homes who have died with Covid19 releated symptoms have not been included. If you look at post 361,I have included the ONS figures upto April 1st. The ONS reports directly to Parliament.
Another problem which is starting to get reported by some doctors,is more people are dying of other non-Covid related symptoms. People are trying to avoid going to the hospital due to what is happening(things such as heart attacks),and even then as things are stretched you are seeing longer response times for other illnesses. We need to manage the numbers,as this is having a knockon effect on other people with health problems too!
Its not only in the UK,but the US too.
Edit!!
The German army donates 60 ventilators to the UK:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...oronavirus-nhs
So 260 extra ventilators if you include the ones from the US they donated kindly.
It looks like we will still miss the amount of ventilators we need for the peak:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...for-virus-peak
It looks like it will take weeks for local production to ramp up,as I said before. This is why the government is telling people to stay at home,as we need to manage things as best we can for the next few weeks.When Britain’s government issued an urgent call to industry for thousands of hospital ventilators, more than 5,000 companies offered to help. Coronavirus infections are expected to peak next week and there’s little to show for their effort.
Significant deliveries from the firms are still weeks away, and the embattled National Health Service has resorted to foreign imports and loans from the armed forces and the private sector to double its ventilator count to around 10,000. While the national lockdown appears to be slowing the spread of Covid-19, the NHS may need as many as 8,000 more of the devices, according to Health Secretary Matt Hancock.
U.K. Records Highest Daily Deaths With Johnson in Intensive Care
The government is under intense pressure to solve Britain’s shortage of the machines that are vital for treating critically ill patients. It already spurned an offer to join a European Union program for procuring ventilators, initially stating it was no longer a member of the bloc and could source them locally, before backtracking and saying it had missed the email inviting participation. EU leaders are struggling to coordinate a response to the virus; last night they were unable to agree on a 500 billion-euro ($543 billion) stimulus package.
It’s not that U.K. Plc can’t do the job: The machines are seen as relatively straightforward to make and much of industry has been sitting on its hands since the economy tanked. The problem is that vacuum cleaner maker Dyson Ltd., engineering contractor Babcock International Group Plc and other newcomers to the business need their designs to be fully tested and approved.
It can take months for the U.K. Medicines & Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency to sign off on sensitive medical machinery. The process can be expedited, but still takes valuable time to ensure patients’ safety.
“It’s a race against the clock,” said Derek Hill, a professor specializing in medical devices at University College London. The regulator is “literally working all hours making this happen fast.”
For now, the supply of ventilators from British manufacturers is tiny. The NHS expects to receive 30 locally-made machines this week, compared to 300 sourced from China over the weekend.
Department of Health and Social Care officials say they are confident there will be enough ventilators to meet demand, given the steps being taken to increase the number available, and as long as people continue to stay at home to reduce the spread of the virus.
In the short run, the greatest hope lies with consortium Ventilator Challenge UK, which includes Meggitt Plc, Airbus SE, GKN Ltd, McLaren Automotive Ltd and Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc. They plan to churn out 1,500 ventilators a week using designs from Penlon Ltd. and Smiths Group Plc, two medical device makers that can currently only make about 50 to 60 of the machines per week on their own. The group already has an approved ventilator from Smiths. But it’s still closing in on final approval for the other, and its factories and supply chains are in need of re-calibrating, so large deliveries are unlikely before the end of April.
A breathing aid developed by engineers from the Mercedes Formula One team and University College London has been approved for use. It’s being manufactured at a rate of as many as 1,000 a day using machines that would normally produce racing car pistons and turbochargers. It’s not as sophisticated as a ventilator, but it can help reduce the need for those devices.
Companies such as Babcock -- which has a government contract to make 10,000 of its Zephyr Plus ventilators -- face a longer wait for approval. They may end up being useful in a potential second or third wave of infection.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is in hospital with the disease, set a challenge last month to source 30,000 ventilators.
The government now says fewer will be needed because lockdown measures have slowed the virus’s spread. The NHS has 2,000 extra ventilators on standby, with 1,500 more due to arrive by the end of the week, Hancock said on Sunday.
However,Mercedes and UCL have come up with a breathing aid which can be made in quantity much easier - its not a ventilator,but hopefully will reduce the need for them. This is good news!
Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 10-04-2020 at 04:25 PM.
WRT to the US:
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-...20-4?r=US&IR=T
Makes you wonder what "aggressive social distancing policy" means especially if it lasts until August?The main model used to estimate the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States reduced its death toll prediction to 60,415 by August.
According to CNN, the drop in US deaths is based on the assumption that social distancing measures will continue until August.
"So the model is always forecasting based on the assumption that the states are all going to line up behind a broad, aggressive social distancing policy. However, we certainly account for the fact that some states have implemented that much earlier than others," Gregory Roth, one of the senior faculty at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation told CNN.
Apparently 133 million Americans suffer from chronic healthcare problems:
https://nationalhealthcouncil.org/wp...nicDisease.pdf
About 49 million people as of 2016 are over 65:What is a chronic disease? A chronic disease, as defined by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, is a disease lasting three months or longer. About 40million Americans arelimited in their usual activities due to one or more chronic health conditions.1Q. How many people are affected by chronic diseases? Generally incurable and ongoing, chronic diseases affectapproximately 133 million Americans,representing more than 40% of the total population of this country.2By 2020, that number is projected to grow toan estimated 157 million, with 81 million having multiple conditions.3About half of all adultshave a chronic condition, andapproximately 8 percent of children ages 5 to 17 were reported by their parents to have limited activities due to at least one chronic disease or disability.4,5More and more people are living with not just one chronic illness, such as diabetes, heart disease or depression, but with two or more conditions. Almost a third of the population is now living with multiple chronic conditions.6In 2009, 7 out of 10 deaths in the U.S. are due to chronic diseases. Heart disease, cancer and strokeaccount for more than half of all deaths each year.7According to the New England Journal of Medicine,people with chronic conditions receive only 56% of recommended preventive health care services.8
https://acl.gov/sites/default/files/...ansProfile.pdf
64 million Americans live in multi-generational households:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...al-households/
It looks like quite a few people will in some kind of lockdown for the immediate future. So probably around 50~100 million people,covering over 65s,younger people with conditions and households which they live in. If you don't live in a household with either of the previous two groups,you are probably lucky TBF!
(yes I know its relative luck).
Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 10-04-2020 at 05:02 PM.
Thats what I said they are counting confirmed cases and confirmed deaths in hospital.
but if you die at home from cancer the death certificate states cancer and is added to official numbers.
If you die outside hospital from suspected or confirmed covid-19 the death cerificate says Unknown or covid-19.
In the cases of confirmed covid-19 deaths happening outside of a hospital they are not added to the offical death toll. Apparently it was said they would be added, but they still haven't been adding all the deaths as of yet. And the unknown deaths may take months to be added to official figures. Lets face it this govement has a long history of coverups.
Coverups and general incompetence. Or competent ineptitude.
In comparison of Covid-19 to Influenza underlockdown week 13 (Mon 23rd to Sun 29th March)
Two influenza laboratory confirmed deaths were reported to have occurred in ICU/HDU week 13in the UK.
https://assets.publishing.service.go...20_week_14.pdf
2008 died in hospital from confirmed covid-19 during that same week.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...pril-2020.xlsx
My uncle is in critical care on one of this tier of machines - not a full ventilator (which is good as it means he doesn't have to be sedated) - but the machine is supplying oxygen under pressure. It is helping. He says the covid thing is miserable and (understatement of the year) really not nice to experience. He's a key worker before you ask, caught it doing his job when he was desperate to be allowed to stay home. He was one of the unlucky shifts they kept going for an extra 2 weeks to help tide things through.
CAT-THE-FIFTH (10-04-2020),DK2019 (10-04-2020),g8ina (10-04-2020),kompukare (10-04-2020)
it's terrible what all NHS workers, care workers, transport, other front line staff have been forced to do.
I wish him a speedy recovery.
So please explain your intent. I presumed you wanted to get back to working (near) normally, leaving a minority of other people to carry the burdens of the infection.
Please also explain how you see self selected isolation working. A virus does not respect individual choice. People merely provide a virus with the means and opportunity to reproduce. Any passing human will do. Locking down a whole population ensures those with the potential to spread the virus widest, furthest and to the most people, are much less likely to.
I find your assertion problematic on many levels. The nature of the economy goes some way to determine the quality of the lives being lived and saved. The post war British economy rewarded production with social security. The post 1980 consumerist economy breeds social insecurity by rewarding consumption at the cost of production. It's loony.A strong economy saves lives. That has to be a long term goal, balanced against the short term costs.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals for instance. Executives and stock holders made vast sums of money buying up smaller, innovative companies for their IP, stripping the expensive R&D departments and inflating the prices of the existing treatments. Rinse and repeat. Within the Valeant microcosm sharp practice in the board room was rewarded with vast sums of cash. Meanwhile the academics and scientists with the skills to do the actual life saving work were made redundant. Taken to the logical long term conclusion, those clever enough to do the life saving are clever enough to choose a more secure/rewarding career path altogether.
"We have to accept that some people will die. [Just as long as it is not me or mine.]"Closing all roads would reduce deaths in traffic accidents to almost zero. But we need roads to have a functioning economy. So we accept some deaths, while mitigating the danger with seat belts and air bags. This is similar. We need a functioning economy, and for that we have to accept that some people will die, but we can mitigate that as much as possible.
Is probably closer to the truth.
Until the scientists know more about the virus the restrictions we are living under are the mitigation. The restrictions are going to be eased at some point. Possibly when the infection can be managed. Possibly when the death-toll created by the lock down needs to be managed. Possibly when the population at large stops consenting to be policed.
Economies do not stop functioning - which is sorta the problem. The virus has revealed how dysfunctional western economies have become. The lack of test kits, the lack of PPE, the lack of nurses, social care and so on are a feature of that economy and the behaviours it rewards. The things that could provide mitigation are not available because the economy (as it is) rewards not having them.
CAT-THE-FIFTH (13-04-2020),DK2019 (10-04-2020),ik9000 (10-04-2020),j1979 (10-04-2020),kompukare (10-04-2020)
Sorry to hear that! Wishes for a speedy recovery!
@TeePee and CTF
So the numbers are being over estimated some areas and under estimated in other areas to varying degrees.. hopefully the former but I feel pessimistic under the circumstances. I can imagine heart attacks, strokes and blood clots rising as people as don't get as much exercise.. yes.
My immuno-compromised brother (Crohn's disease - he's 39) recently recovered from Covid-19, so if he can survive it your uncle can too. I hope he recovers fully. My brothers house mates are primary school teachers who most likely caught it from the children at school, so the decision to keep schools open/herd immunity approach, probably nearly took my brother out of the picture.
Last edited by The Hand; 12-04-2020 at 05:13 PM. Reason: typo
CAT-THE-FIFTH (13-04-2020),ik9000 (10-04-2020)
I'm so sorry to hear about that and hope he recovers quickly.
ik9000 (10-04-2020)
so it''s just been on C4 news, that the nightingale hospital has had equipment taken from other hospitals around the country.
Oh ffs! The tories will do anything to make it look like they have any shred of competence during this crisis!
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