Coronavirus

[DK2019]

https://twitter.com/TheBMA/status/1248605467573510147

"We are hearing reports of a shocking lack of PPE supplies across trusts in England today. The Government must address dwindling PPE supplies immediately - PPE should not be being rationed due to a lack of supply. 1/3"

[DK2019]

Sorry for your loss spreadie and g8ina I hope sally recovers quickly.

[DK2019]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/turke...9000-12539620/

Turkey is sending us aid. Ironic considering how much vitriol there was against turkey the eu brexit debate.

[Phage]

Here's an interesting study. "Cities that locked down faster in 1918 bounced back better"

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...mic-curve-too/

[DK2019]

Here's an interesting study. "Cities that locked down faster in 1918 bounced back better"

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...mic-curve-too/

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/new-z...DrgLlRx-5U7pPY

That seems to be reflected around the world today.

[TeePee]

And more good news. They have updated the model since I posted, and now estimating a total of 37K deaths. The peak is supposed to be on the 17th, with 1674 deaths. While this is good news, I'm still hoping this is an overestimate. The first projection with the new model was for 1300 today, and we're significantly lower at 980. I really hope that continues to be the case.

Today's number is also good news compared to the model. 917 deaths compared to the model's 1400. This model is supposed to be a best case scenario with the fullest possible compliance with social distancing. A few data points aren't enough to show a trend yet, but it provides a lot of hope.

In particular, the model also indicates the UK is very close to peak resource use, and while reports indicate hospitals are busy, they do not appear to be overwhelmed.

Antibody testing studies are beginning in the US, which should give a good indication of just how widespread this virus is.

[Jonatron]

Something quite unrelated to the strands of this topic: When I've been doing my daily walk, I haven't taken my phone with me. Usually I always have my phone everywhere, and don't go out for no other reason than to exercise. It makes a surprisingly big difference, and I think I'll continue to leave my phone at home when possible when things go back to normal. If you think about it, it's crazy, if you have a phone on you, you're trackable (by authorities and possibly others) and contactable at any time by anyone.

[Phage]

I can see your point - in the meantime I have taken some lovely photos, and recordings of the birdsong, which I can now hear

[j1979]

This chart really puts things into persective.


99 yo WWII vet survives Covid-19 and broken arm!

[TeePee]

This chart really puts things into persective.


99 yo WWII vet survives Covid-19 and broken arm!

Do you have a version adjusted with per capita numbers?

[j1979]

Do you have a version adjusted with per capita numbers?

not exactly, but the graph posted is all about the trajectory as it represented linear not logarithmic, so per capita wouldn't make a diffence to that trajectory. The only issue would be to visualise smaller populations compared to larger ones.

There is this, not even sure what the name of this type of graph would be.

https://public.flourish.studio/visua...sation/1778083

[TeePee]

not exactly, but the graph posted is all about the trajectory as it represented linear not logarithmic, so per capita wouldn't make a diffence to that trajectory. The only issue would be to visualise smaller populations compared to larger ones.

There is this, not even sure what the name of this type of graph would be.

https://public.flourish.studio/visua...sation/1778083

Those are illustrations of different testing rates, which we already know is not reflective of infections.

Your graph is a perfect example of the way that data can be manipulated to scare people. It would be easy to look at it, and think the situation in the US is the same as Italy and Spain. The reality is quite different.

Let's look at deaths per million people:

USA: 56.73
Italy: 311.78
UK: 131.96
Spain: 338.85
France: 202.18

Suddenly the US and UK are looking pretty good. This is being reflected on the ground as well, where field hospitals in the US that were hastily set up are being closed having never seen a patient. In the UK, which may currently be at it's peak resource use, there is no overwhelming of medical facilities, as in Italy and Spain. The reality is that this virus simply isn't as bad as people have been manipulated in to believing.

[j1979]

Those are illustrations of different testing rates, which we already know is not reflective of infections.

Your graph is a perfect example of the way that data can be manipulated to scare people. It would be easy to look at it, and think the situation in the US is the same as Italy and Spain. The reality is quite different.

Let's look at deaths per million people:

USA: 56.73
Italy: 311.78
UK: 131.96
Spain: 338.85
France: 202.18

Suddenly the US and UK are looking pretty good. This is being reflected on the ground as well, where field hospitals in the US that were hastily set up are being closed having never seen a patient. In the UK, which may currently be at it's peak resource use, there is no overwhelming of medical facilities, as in Italy and Spain. The reality is that this virus simply isn't as bad as people have been manipulated in to believing.

well im sure you'll agree it's not a race anyone wants to win and it's a terrible situation no matter how you look at it.

[TeePee]

well im sure you'll agree it's not a race anyone wants to win and it's a terrible situation no matter how you look at it.

It certainly is, and minimizing the deaths is the goal. But the deaths from the lockdown and recession are likely to be significantly higher than those from the disease.

[j1979]

It certainly is, and minimizing the deaths is the goal. But the deaths from the lockdown and recession are likely to be significantly higher than those from the disease.

I don't disagree about the lockdown it's a massive problem. where i think i disagree is that the problems caused by the lockdown are mainly exacerbated by the inequality in society. The wealth held by the Jeff Bezos is the same as the GDP of Bulgaria over 2 years. Just suggesting that the economic damage will only be felt by those at the bottom in real terms, if you have $130bn losing half won't make you starve to death. If you're on minium wage and a bag of rice goes from £1 to £2, you're going to feel it.

There are some good billionaires, that do some geniune good... but something has to change imho.

[TeePee]

I don't disagree about the lockdown it's a massive problem. where i think i disagree is that the problems caused by the lockdown are mainly exacerbated by the inequality in society. The wealth held by the Jeff Bezos is the same as the GDP of Bulgaria over 2 years. Just suggesting that the economic damage will only be felt by those at the bottom in real terms, if you have $130bn losing half won't make you starve to death. If you're on minium wage and a bag of rice goes from £1 to £2, you're going to feel it.

There are some good billionaires, that do some geniune good... but something has to change imho.

No dispute about that. Recessions hurt the poor far more than the rich. Estimates are 500 Million people will be forced in to poverty by this shut down. If true, that means millions of premature deaths, and careers and futures ruined for a generation.