Originally Posted by
CAT-THE-FIFTH
But the problem is both you and 3dcandy can't see the bigger issue. If MS is hedging on cloud applications,that longterm means it opens up more competition due to the lack of Windows lock-in. Some of you are just looking right now when MS is doing well,but people were pointing out the issues internally at Intel years ago. The same at IBM and all these cases these companies were doing well. Another company I have some experience is Nokia - Nokia was doing very well,but I heard things from people I knew who worked there,and they saw the writing on the wall years before the issues starting to hit home.
The issue is that it takes years for eventually bad tactical decisions to hit,and it is often preceded by some of the best years companies have. Why?? Because it leads to mass hubris,and overconfidence in the decision making. This is what "too big to fail" is about and why people suddenly get very shocked when it hits home. A very famous example is Kodak,who had everything in place but it went to crap,and indeed Apple by the early 1990s.
Some of you have forgotten what happened in the 1980s - Microsoft was the upstart,and IBM and Apple had the market. Plenty of people were argueng like in this thread how IBM and Apple would never lose share to MS,because it was buggier,less secure,did less,etc. Busineses would save them,etc. But MS entered the market with less restrictive licensing conditions which separated the hardware and software requirements. It was the same with servers,where people were argueing Windows would never amount to much. Now you see the same thing MS is doing,its become a bigger,less agile company like Intel became.
The problem here,again what happens in 10 years time. Both Android/iOS/ChromeOS are evolving especially with more capable hardware. If the US military has no problem using Android/iOS for critical stuff in the field,and other militaries are doing the same,are you telling me that companies now like Samsung with the "enterprise supported" Android devices,are not gunning to take share from MS?? The reality is the ground is starting to shift and some of you are so wedded to Windows,its no different than all the same people who thought Apple/IBM PC would persevere longer term.
Then you have the other shift - more countries are developing indigenous CPUs,which won't be running Windows in any form.
So the issue here,is that increasingly you can see MS floundering along and again MS moving to Cloud apps,is not a good longterm strategy. The reason is because most of that Office usage is because of legacy Windows usage. Companies like Apple and Google are not going to tolerate MS taking money from them,on their own platforms. Basically your entire survival on an office suite and pc gaming,is not going to work longterm.
Again,the biggest platform for gaming is Android/iOS in terms of revenue.
You only have to look at Apple,and how its trying to diversify and enter the same area. Google is doing the same,and they make more money than MS. The fact is MS not having its own smartphone OS is its major failure,just like Intel ignoring Apple for mobile smartphone processors.
MS has repeatedly made poor decisions over the last 20 years or so - look at how they dismissed out of hand what Apple was doing. They allowed an upstart like Google to not only make a better smartphone OS than they could,but a whole ad and search infrastructure,software insfrastruture,etc.
They are increasingly the trend follower,not the trend setter.
The issue is again,longer term older people like us are the same who would always use Intel,even if AMD,ARM,etc were better. But as time progresses,there will be generations of people who won't be as loyal to MS as most of us appear to be. You can see that with servers - younger blood basically has pushed companies to look at other alternatives or develop their own.
I find it really weird at the nostalgia some of you have with MS,when its quite clear they have been mostly coasting along on past glories. No different than so many companies including Intel.
Edit!!
Another thing - some of you keep trying to talk about "businesses" will save MS.
Guess what?? MS with an unproven Windows upstaged BOTH Apple and IBM,by the late 80s/early 90s. Even businesses won't just stay wedded to an OS from two tech heavyweights of the 1980s. For decades X86 consumer CPUs had no real alternatives(outside IBM/Motorola for a while). This is why Windows persevered despite its problems - there was not much performance alternatives(especially as IBM/Motorola started flailing around,and couldn't deliver efficient mobile CPUs by the G5).
With ARM based hardware being more than fast enough to do "business work",there is no need now to use X86. But that means Wintel is not a need anymore. So if you are using Cloud apps,why use a MS platform for them?
Then if you are not wedded to Windows,why be wedded to Office over the next 5~10 years?? Think about it for a second - MS is essentially a company relying on a word processor and associated software.
It only takes a massive company like Apple to start really pushing its own alternatives then MS is put in a bind. Apple went from nowhere to making amazing mobile CPUs. Nobody expected this.
Plus if MS relies too much on Office,and keeps raising prices(as they rely on it for revenue growth),it means other cheaper alternatives will gain traction.It only takes huge markets like China,etc to start deciding it does not wants to be spending lots of money on foreign software suites,and has an impetus to make their own. Then these get seeded through their companies to the rest of the world at lowish cost. Then what??
Remember consumer is where it all starts. Nobody thought X86 would be viable for supercomputers,but consumer momentum meant economies of scale. MS longterm might not have this.