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About LinkBacksSo production will decline and costs increase over 20 years or so? Why will this be a problem?
So production will decline and costs increase over 20 years or so? Why will this be a problem?
because our population will be double what it was when we were at the same production level on the upside of the curve.
for example, if the peak year is 2000, then the level in 2020 will be the same as 1980, except of course there will be 8bn people and not 4bn...
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And why will this be a problem? As production declines and costs increase we will, through the miracle of capitalism, increase our use and development of other sources.
I never thought I'd be running my hovercar on gasoline!
and what exactly are you going to run it on? there are no alternatives avallable that can be developed before the oil market goes nuts, when that happens we will se a very large recession at the very least, just like in the 70's when the fuel prices went through the roof, only this time they wont come back down...
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I think it is a load of tosh and people need to realise if this did come in to play then we would find another technology or way round it
Of course there are alternatives. With oil becoming expensive, just how many corporations would be throwing infinite money at the problem trying to market their alternative.
ok.... so your saying that an alternative for oil could be found in what? a week? a month? a year? because it may only be a few more years before oil prices start to rise and there is no alternative on the horizon and nobody is investing now, it took 30 years from the discovery of atomic energy before any1 had developed a reactor and even then there are still problems with it and uranium is not an unlimited resource.
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Why would anyone invest now? The prices haven't started going up!
Actually people are investing now, especially in dual-fuel projects, but if oil does start to become more expensive, there will be more of a market, and therefore more investment. I would personally guess that in 20 years time, petrol cars will be in a minority, sooner if the oil actually did run out.
Erm, how much do you think the patent for an oil-replacement solution is worth in the market place? £1 trillion? £5 trillion? I honestly have no idea, but those numbers are probably in the right number of zeros.Originally Posted by TeePee
If a solution really was "just around the corner", as people seem to assume, why on earth has it not yet been found? I mean, we are not even close.
Imagine that peak oil is 2010. Now, after that date, the price of oil with continue to rise, putting an extra strain on pretty much every major industry on the planet. This in turn is going to help promote longer periods of economic depression along with shorter periods of economic prosperity. And this, in turn, is going to mean that there is less money available to fund an oil replacement. What I am saying is that there is a good argument to suggest that the most profitable time to research this is right about now.
Hybrid cars run on oil and electricity. Where do you think electricity comes from?
"All our beliefs are being challenged now, and rightfully so, they're stupid." - Bill Hicks
Uranium, coal, water (yes, we do have hydro-electric power stations in this coutry!), and oil.
How much do you think car companies are spending on R&D? They have had made a car that runs on fuel cells, but while the cost of oil is so cheap (with it not running out anytime soon, natch), it lacks mass-market appeal.
Water - Hydro-Electric power currently supplies 2.3% of global energy supply.
Coal - produces huge levels of greenhouse gases.
Uranium - Extremely expensive. Current known Uranium reserves can supply the earth's energy needs for only 25 years at best.
How do you charge fuel cells? There is NO viable alternative solution. The fact that companies are obviously spending large amounts on the problem, and really are not getting anywhere, is not very good news, dont you think?
"All our beliefs are being challenged now, and rightfully so, they're stupid." - Bill Hicks
I don't know much about fuel cells, but my guess is from electricity, and it's fortunate that plutonium from recycled uranium will last us well into the next century. Also, while the cost of a nuclear plant is more expensive, the cost of fuel is far lower and so the cost of long term generation is comparable.
Based on statistics for 1995, in the UK, about 67% of our electricity comes from Coal (with a hundred years of reserves worldwide), 25% Nuclear, 2% renewable, and the rest from other thermal sources like oil and gas.
Most manufacturers actually already market battery powered electric cars (and not dual-fuel) but they just aren't popular. There is no trillion pound demand for them. If there were, more people would be wanting to buy them!
Given both the long-term availability of fuels for power generation, and the current availability of a (less desirable) form of powering cars, I fail to see how oil availability training off over the next 50 years will cause us to return to a stone age level of technology. It will certainly bring changes, but from an ecological and environmental point of view, the changes will be for the better.
well, you have covered our energy use, but oil is used in pretty much everything we use today, and I think thats the point. When the prices go up it is going to affect us in many different ways that are pretty hard to imagine at this point. for example, lets say we find a way to supply our electricity needs, thats cool but then I go to make my dinner... and oh look no gas... what the hell am I gonna cook this with.... hummm, looks like my electric oven and microwave is about all there is, erk!
also, on the dual fuel cars, IIRC the energy that chrages the battery comes from the braking enegry of the car, so you have to drive it for a while before its charged and then you can switch to battery, this is supposed to make cars over 30% more economical.
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This is peak oil, not peak gas. Last I heard we had fifty years or more of natural gas. Many people already don't have a gas supply, and have electric cookers. Myself I prefer gas, it's much more offandonable (as the tortoise said to the polar bear), but it's not an essential.
Besides, if the gas started to run out, it wouldn't just stop coming out of the taps, it would increase in price, making electric cookers more economical. As a result, when a gas cooker owner was remodelling their klitchen they'd likely see the cheaper cost of running an electric cooker and buy one, a simple period of transition.
Dual fuel or Hybrid cars like the Honda Insight or Toyota Prius have a generator which charges the batteries when the engine is cruising, not just breaking. They also have a hook-up to the mains supply. They are more economical, (The Honda Insight returns about 80mpg), but not a total replacement. Toyota recently discontinued production of their fully electric RAV4EV due to a lack of demand, they sold about 300 vehicles worldwide. They have, however, sold more than 100,000 hybrid vehicles.
While oil is deleting I don't see issues within our lifetime apart from how much
we pay for the stuff.
End of day oil is big business and while its still available little effort will be
made to move us on to alternative energy supplies.
Anyone who thinks such alternative supplies don't exist might want to think
again
Plus we already know that experiments in Matter / Anti Matter have taken
place something that can yeild masses amounts of energy.
There were something in the papers a while ago with even talk of future
space mission to Mars using craft that once so far out use a Matter / Anti-
Matter explosion to propell the ship forward on to Mars.
They say behind the goverment doors research and future inventions / ideas
are 50years ahead of what we see now.
Sidetracking slightly....
Someone mentioned earlier in this thread about Sugar ? does not a UK
based rocketeer trying to be the amature rocketer to make a 1st manned
space mission use erm... Sugar as part of his rocket fuel?
Well, just being a bit selfish here....
I've got as diesel car; so I can use vegetable oil (ok so the price of chips might go up)
I've got an open fire and an axe.
And if they stop making electricity then I'll just have to say goodbye to y'all.
It is possible to live without oil. People have been doing it for centuries.
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