Peak Oil

[DaBeeeenster]

To websites? I'm sure I can find some, but if you remember I can be quoted as saying the web is half lies and half pornography.

I will happily quote my source as 'Fundamentals of Physics Extended' Fifth Edition, By David Halliday, Robert Resnick and Jearl Walker. Chapters 7, 8 and 19 are all relevent.

That reference is for which posts?

The web is not simply lies and pornography. There are a number of emminent sites that can be used as a base point for facts and figures.

[TeePee]

Anyone who believes every word on: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html would think that.

The reference is for the greater efficiency of power stations Vs internal combusion engines.

For the fuels used in power generation, you might like: http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy_tra.../hpol6_2_.html and http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy_tra.../hpol6_3_.html

And for details of Toyotas abortive RAV4EV: http://www.toyota.com/html/shop/vehi...rav4ev_0_home/

None of these sources should be believed.

[DaBeeeenster]

I'm not saying I believe every word on the lifeafterthecrash site, but I have watched a couple of BBC programs, as well as reading George Monbiot's comment articles in the Guardian (especially this one).

Power stations themselves may well be more efficient, but have your calculations factored in the transfer of energy from the power station to the car motor?

I find it fairly bizarre that people have absolutely no issue with this subject whatsoever. Oil is going to start increasing in price in the next five years, and carry on increasing. Does this not worry you?

[TiG]

Its not bizarre DaBeeeenster, its damn worrying that no-one seems to have the ability to see past, what is quite a scare mongering web site.

http://www.after-oil.co.uk/ so as i think Big Richard said, i've read this one too, a much more realistic view, and if people can't be bothered to read the whole thing just read National plan section 22 on the 2 possible scenarios.

It basically answers most of the points that i'd care to refute. Teepee i'd suggest you read this as you seem to be taking a far to blinkered view. It won't happen will not stop oil running out. if over the next 10 years oil costs go up 4 fold, then everything and I do mean everything will go up in cost. I don't know what sort of figure we're talking but say its 25%, above inflation, the simple fact with this is it moves the poverty line up.

I find this a very true threat, and ignoring it now is not going to help us when in 25 years we're starting to get screwed from it.

We've had a few insights into what 1970's oil crisis did to the world, yet i'm sure most of us here have no visibility of this as we weren't born, but something i have spent a lot of time reading about was why Japan got involved in the second world war. OIL, or Japan being completely cut off from its supplies, America doing this caused them to feel they had no option but to go to war.

America's war on Terrorism can be used to justify far too many invasions, but what happens when it takes a step too far?. I can now see a damn clear route to WWIII with this chain of events.

Lets hope it doesn't come to this, but with America's agressive foriegn policy and lack of care for energy conservation with it refusing to sign up to any world energy policy i'm hardly confident of any positive movements.

But then again its all rubbish isn't it

TiG

[G4Z]

btw, I found that after0oil link and the guardian one, give meh the credit!¬

[TeePee]

Thats a little more sensible. I won't dispute that oil prices will rise over the enxt ten years. But thats a long way from throwing us back to the stone age!

[G4Z]

well, I dont think thowing us back to the stoneage is particularly unrealistic, this problem has the potential to really knack our civilisation if we dont do somthing now and it seems to me that not very much is being done about it. I really hope laternatives are found and we dont have a problem but if we assume that there are no alternatives or we are unable to make use of alternatives then the future will be very bleak.

[Angus]

I seem to be seeing a common theme here. Those who think there is a problem think that there is also someone to blame.

If you are seriously worried/concerned stop whinging about other people's lack of actions and do something yourself. (After all if you find a "cure" you're going to get mighty rich anyway)

[G4Z]

uhhhhh.. sorry and all that I dont think most of us were around to stop the oil explosion in the 60's and 70's that created the world we live in today. and as far as doing somthing about it, wouldnt you say the first step is to talk about it first? and that as most experts seem to think its too late to do anything about it the only thing you can really do is prepare your self for it by investing in some solar panels and an allottment. and maybe a bike. to find a replacement for oil it will take huge amounts of research and investment to get anywhere so I doubt some1 is gonna come up with an answer in his back garden shed.

[DaBeeeenster]

Just been passed this. Have yet to read it fully, but it looks very interesting...

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/fre...ating_oil.html

[Blub2k]

teepee = spook???
cant say due to the nature of present employment...right

[DaBeeeenster]

[Rave]

This is all frightening the bejeesus out of me TBH. I'm a natural optimist and I don't really believe that we're all headed for a die-off, but I do think we should start to do the following:

1. Legislate to eliminate waste at all levels of the food production process. I would go so far as to tax shops on food that they waste rather than sell (or give away).

2. While the oil we need to make them is still affordable, we should invest massively in renewable energy sources. I personally favour wave power for Britain as possibly the best value and lowest environmental impact solution, but we should also invest in solar stations for the times that the sun is shining and there's no wind or waves).

Ultimately the sun does beam down an immense amount of energy to the earth, much of which could be exploited better than it is now. Electricity can be used to power pretty much all the industrial processes on which our economy relies. If we don't build the renewable power stations now while we have the chance though, then we'll be screwed.

There's always nuclear power I suppose, but I'd really rather not become reliant on that!

Rich :¬)

[DaBeeeenster]

The thing is, as this essay points out, our entire food infrastructure relies on oil and natural gas. Now, I know some of the components (such as oil powered vehicles) could theoretically be replaced with renewable energy sources such as electric, but what about others like fertilizer?

We ARE all doomed...?

[Rave]

The thing is, as this essay points out, our entire food infrastructure relies on oil and natural gas. Now, I know some of the components (such as oil powered vehicles) could theoretically be replaced with renewable energy sources such as electric, but what about others like fertilizer?

I'm sure there's a way to make nitrogen fertiliser using just electricity, water, and air (although I'm not sure what happens if we run out of phosphor and potassium reserves- it must go somewhere so could presumably be reclaimed?). Obviously using natural gas is cheaper for the time being, but that doesn't mean it can't be done any other way. Forms of energy are largely interchangeable, and the raw ingredients of fossil fuels (carbon and hydrogen) are widely available in other forms.

Also, your most recent link points out that an enormous amount of potential fertiliser is wasted in the US in the form of manure. In fact using it would be an excellent idea as the huge 'rubbishrubbishrubbishrubbish pits' created near large factory farms are a major environmental hazard. It's probably better for the soil than other fertilisers too.

Thinking about it, I'm beginning to think that the latter article is overly pessimistic. In fact I'm sure that there is plenty of land left in the world that could still be cultivated if needs be, places like Russia and South America. Fertilisers increase crop yields, sure, but not by an order of magnitude, and as that article points out, we're at the point of diminishing returns. Part of the increase in yields since the middle of the century is due to better plant varieties and more efficient methods etc.

Rich :¬)

[Markharm]

There are a few new technologies. For example, newly developed Thermo-Depolymerization Technology (which converts carbon-rich garbage into crude oil). The conversion process doesn't create any harmful pollutants and use of the new form of oil actually releases less greenhouse gases than would be released by the natural decay process if the material had been stored in a landfill - in the case of naturally decaying material. The process can also be used to convert plastics and other non-decaying material.

'Turkey waste turned into oil' - New York Newsday - New TDP plant generating a positive cash flow while selling crude oil converted from garbage at a price 10% less than equivalent oil produced at a conventional refinery.
http://www.nynewsday.com/technology/...logy-headlines

'Missouri plant begins making oil from farm waste’ – Waste News - Crude oil No. 4, produced from agricultural waste products, put on the market.
http://www.wastenews.com/headlines2.html?id=1085160729

'Turkey Fuel? Factory to Turn Guts into Crude Oil' - National Geographic - Details how a Carthage plant is converting turkey waste into crude oil and its potential to solve many of America's waste disposal problems while making us less dependant on foreign oil.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...turkeyoil.html

'Researchers turn manure into crude oil' - MSNBC News - Researcher Yanhui Zhang of the University of Illinois has successfully converted pig manure into oil in small batches. He uses a similar process to the one already being used by a plant in Carthage, Mo., that converts tons of waste material, such as feathers and entrails, from a nearby Butterball Turkey plant into light crude oil.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4732398/

Successful Result of a California Pilot Thermo-Depolymerization Plant in the Philadelphia Navy Yard on the California Energy Commission's government website
http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/indust..._98_003_3.html

And on the hydrogen frontier, there was a recent breakthrough in an ethanol-to-hydrogen reactor that will make hydrogen much more competitive as an energy source. The new reactor eliminates the need for large expensive facilities to produce hydrogen - being small and cheap enough for home and car use.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/science...n.reactors.ap/

Mark Harm
Candidate for State Representative - Michigan
http://www.markharm.com