European Referendum...Vote now!

[darcotech]

British should defenatly vote for Euro. This how the prices in UK will be much lower, because it will be much easier to compare them with other Euro countries.
Same goes for salaries, everything.
Now I know you are sentimentally conected to Pounds, but its time to this step, its SOOO important. You should vote YES.

I wish that we, Swiss, could do this thing too.

[Saracen]

Do we join the Euro?

In my view, no. Emphatically no. Certainly not at the moment and, in my view, not for the foreseeable future.

I've lost track of how many times I've had this discussion over the past couple of years, but certainly nothing has happened since last time to change my view.

But before saying anything else, let me say this - my view is NOT predicated on any trivial attachment to the pound, or to some fuzzy romantic definition of "sovereignty". If there were a convincing economic and political argument in favour of ditching the pound for the Euro, for the dollar or for pretty coloured glass beads, I'd have no problem.

But I DO have a problem, several in fact, with the Euro scheme.

Problem 1. It is an experiment with no easy or clear exit strategy. Arguably, no legal way out at all.

Problem 2. Some countries that ARE in the Euro have already ignored the hell out of the economic underpinnings of it - i.e. the growth and stability pact. If you get major economies (no names mentioned) screwing around with rule compliance when it suits them, then I do NOT want OUR economic stability based on it.

Problem 3. Incompatible economic cycles. It is bad enough coping with different economic cycles by different parts of the UK, within the single currency - the pound - without having to cope with the difference in underlying economic infrastructures within the current EU membership. And that will be much more so with expanded membership. If you want an example of the effect this can have on economic performance, look at the effect the reunification of East and West Germany had on the West German economy. Now, maybe long-term that will be worth the current pain, and it's not my place to criticise (I'm not German) but it seems to me from talking to some German friends that not everybody is exactly wild with delight over the effects of reunification.

Anyway - economic cycles. The British economy is not anything like fully synchronous with other major power's cycles - either in pitch or duration. Until they are, my vote will be "no" – and my estimate is that this means no for a period measured in decades – at least.

Economic cycles are not something you can change in five minutes, because :-

a) so many factors are involved, leading to incredible complexity
b) many of those factors are incredibly deep-rooted (like national infrastructure)

To get these cycles in synchronisation requires that the underlying infrastructure is compatible to the point that major indicators are moving in the same direction as other major countries, and reaching the same (approximately) pitch as other countries, and over the same cycle length. It is simply not enough that we synchronise in the short term (say, a few years) because many underlying cycles have a duration of a few years, or more (5 or more). We might track relatively closely for a couple of years, but then our cycle changes while other countries do not, or vice-versa. THEN, we are in the poop.

Problem 4). Then there is the political angle. Whatever OUR government might try to tell us, the Euro is a major plank in a long-term political aim, and so is the European constitution, for that matter. The aim - call it what you want (a 'Federal' Europe, the United states of Europe, whatever) - but it boils down to political integration.

This is a subject that REALLY frosts my nuts because we, the British people, have been conned by our government for several decades over this, and never asked if we actually wanted that. And personally, I have a suspicion that resentment over that con is coming home to roost now, if we are given a referendum on the Euro constitution - because THAT is when the British people will be given the first chance to directly express their views on the state of the EU since the mid-70's, and with the benefit of hindsight over what we were TOLD the EEC was about, and what has actually happened since. I believe this is WHY all the polls show that a EU constitution referendum would get a significant “no”.

So, what were we told last time we were given a voice in this? That "Europe" (.e. the EEC) was a TRADE association, a bit like NAFTA. That it would NOT result in :-

• common passports,
• common borders
• common citizenship
• common judicial system
• European 'laws' over-riding British laws (and courts)
• common armed forces
• common fiscal and/or monetary policy
• common foreign policy
• and, of course, common currency

It was simply a trade association and would result in harmonisation of VAT across Europe and cheaper prices on certain goods (the attraction of cheaper French and German wines, for instance).

Well, we didn't get cheaper wines, did we? Why not? Because our own government loaded them with so much excise duty, that's why. We didn't even get full VAT harmonisation, though there is certainly some alignment - and they’ve had 30 years to get that!

But look at that list of what we were promised we WOULDN'T get, and look at what we either already have, or is implied by membership of the Euro and/or the proposed European constitution.

So, the Euro (and the constitution) are essential planks in the seeds of a politically united and integrated Europe. THAT is where the EU is heading, and it has been openly admitted by several European leaders and by (well, I can't say what I REALLY think of people like Ted Heath because it might be legally actionable) but lets say, our ‘less-than-candid’ political leaders right here at home.

We were sold a con-job by our leaders.

So now, we are faced with a choice - do we sign up for a 'Federal' Europe? My vote on THAT, and it's a political call not just an economic one, is NO.

Problem 5.Many things work differently here to many other parts of Europe. A significant, even critical, one is the proclivity to buy houses. This is a relatively recent phenomenon, even in this country, but we have a VERY high take-up of owner-occupation, especially since the 80's and the desire (despite the trends in house prices) is increasing.

But that in turn means that many people are critically dependent on mortgage rates which, in turn, are determined by central bank rates. With us using the pound, those rates are determined primarily by factors here, though evidently the situation in the Euro zone, the dollar zone and the world generally have an impact. If we join the Euro, the central bank rates will be determined by what is best for the entire community, and if that happens to be for rates to rise, rise they will even if it is disaster here. This is no speculative situation - it happened in Ireland when rates went exactly the opposite way to the way local conditions (housing, employment, etc) needed. Now, maybe that was a price the Irish figured was worth paying (and maybe they're right), but it was definitely a price, and our economy and the Irish economy are not the same.

So when you include the fact that mortgage rates are a much higher priority here than they are in many mainland European countries it becomes clear that any rise in mortgage rates that is not sympathetic to our national conditions would be far more painful here than in many other countries. We’re therefore back to synchronisation of cycles, but this time not economic ones - now we have trends in infrastructure too.

Not that the news is all bad for mortgage holders. It could be that rates would drop in the Euro when isolation would mean they stay up. Given that we currently have some of the lowest rates seen in this country in decades, I'm not holding my breath on that, but whether you believe the odds are for or against, what is absolutely incontrovertible is that it is a GAMBLE.


To those, like darcotech, that think this is as simple as things being cheaper because we can compare prices.....

British should defenatly vote for Euro. This how the prices in UK will be much lower, because it will be much easier to compare them with other Euro countries.
Same goes for salaries, everything.
Now I know you are sentimentally conected to Pounds, but its time to this step, its SOOO important. You should vote YES.

I wish that we, Swiss, could do this thing too.

..... all I can say "refer to Problem 5 above". We were sold that line last time, and it was a con then and is a con now.

How hard is it to compare prices now? All you need is an internet connection. It's easy to look up the Pound/Euro exchange rate, and it's easy to look up prices from suppliers in other EU countries. If you don't have an internet connection, you aren't likely to look up prices for EU suppliers whether we join the Euro or not.

I've also seen the lack of exchange costs when changing money to go on holiday quoted as a reason in the past. My response to that is "God help us". The cost implications of the Euro are SO significant and so far reaching that it's trivial beyond belief to use that as an argument. What it shows is a phenomenal lack of understanding of the implications of the decision, and THAT puts us in a catch-22 situation.

If we had a referendum on the Euro, would it be made on the basis of a cohesive understanding of the issues, or would it be made on the basis of tabloid sensationalism? I fear the latter.

That means my viewpoint is damned if we do and damned if we don't. I vote "no" and for what I consider to be very good, practical reasons. But I'd rather see us go in to the Euro without a referendum than have the decision made on the basis of trivial short-term self-interest or ignorance of the issues. Maybe that sounds conceited. It probably does. But I've spent a lot of time researching this issue, for a couple of years. I wonder what percentage of the population can truthfully say that?


My vote is "no". But beyond that, I truly hope and pray we get an intelligent debate in this country AND a significant campaign of education based on facts, not political spin, before we were given any referendum on the issue (which, incidentally, I don't believe we ever will be).

[foamy]

voted yes i dont know why but it seems like a good idea