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Thread: Windows 7 / Software Piracy thread split

  1. #1
    Banhammer in peace PeterB kalniel's Avatar
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    Windows 7 / Software Piracy thread split

    Quote Originally Posted by aidanjt View Post
    All they'll be doing is increasing the value of piracy.
    The what? There isn't any value in piracy. Price isn't going to affect piracy rates one iota either.

    *edited by Agent - This is a split from http://forums.hexus.net/operating-sy...s-7-rc-14.html. Kalniel is not going crazy*
    Last edited by Agent; 10-06-2009 at 05:23 PM.

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    There isn't any value in piracy.
    Economically speaking, there is.

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    Price isn't going to affect piracy rates one iota either.
    Why wouldn't it?
    Quote Originally Posted by Agent View Post
    ...every time Creative bring out a new card range their advertising makes it sound like they have discovered a way to insert a thousand Chuck Norris super dwarfs in your ears...

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    Seething Cauldron of Hatred TheAnimus's Avatar
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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by aidanjt View Post
    Economically speaking, there is.
    Huh?

    Its a cost ecnomically surely? Lost sale, but also lets not include the 'at least its not *' benefit. Piracy may count as a lost sale, but if they weren't going to buy it at £10, in economic theory terminology its no more of a loss to price the product at £1,000,000, you would still only discount the lost £10 opertunity.

    piracy accounts for a tiny fraction of sales really, most corperations don't ever mean to pirate, those that do its often a mistake.

    Most people aren't capable of installing their own OS, they will faithfully use what ever was loaded on the PC. The question is how much can MS squeeze their OEM partners, i wouldn't be surprised to see a rise in netbook price, MS have pretty much shown that consumers are willing to pay that £30 extra even on £200 device, if what they have is familiar and has that it just works factor.
    throw new ArgumentException (String, String, Exception)

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    Banhammer in peace PeterB kalniel's Avatar
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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by aidanjt View Post
    Why wouldn't it?
    Because the vast majority of people who pirate are either doing so by mistake or would pirate no matter the cost. If cost is a concern then you buy a cheaper product from a competitor or go without, which has the effect of driving down price or adding value for money - if you pirate the product instead of using a competitor then you decrease competition and are more likely to end up pushing up costs, and no-one who is intelligent enough to be concerned with value for money would be that stupid.

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel
    Price isn't going to affect piracy rates one iota either.
    Quote Originally Posted by aidanjt
    Why wouldn't it?
    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    Because the vast majority of people who pirate are either doing so by mistake or would pirate no matter the cost.
    Given that you accept it's only (only?!) the "vast majority" that pirate unwittingly or unrepentantly you must also therefore accept that a small number of witting pirates might be swayed by price. So price *would* affect piracy rates (just not very much).

    It's easy to see how - suppose I can get access to my work's VLK and media. Practically, there's nothing to stop me using it on my own personal machine, but I would be committing piracy as use of that VLK is restricted to work-owned machines. I have to make a choice - do I commit piracy, or do I pay up for my license like a good boy. The price of a Windows license will *clearly* affect my decision at that point.

    The question then becomes "Are there enough people who would buy a copy at a lower price rather than engage in piracy to make up the revenue lost by cutting the price in the first place?". It's quite possible that there aren't, but it does indicate that Microsoft are more concerned about their profit margin than piracy rates...

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by scaryjim View Post
    Given that you accept it's only (only?!) the "vast majority" that pirate unwittingly or unrepentantly you must also therefore accept that a small number of witting pirates might be swayed by price. So price *would* affect piracy rates (just not very much).
    The group I meant by the minority not covered were those who pirated to bypass DRM (ie still bought a game/software, but then pirated it).

    It's easy to see how - suppose I can get access to my work's VLK and media. Practically, there's nothing to stop me using it on my own personal machine, but I would be committing piracy as use of that VLK is restricted to work-owned machines. I have to make a choice - do I commit piracy, or do I pay up for my license like a good boy. The price of a Windows license will *clearly* affect my decision at that point.
    Only if you are stupid enough to ignore the effect that would have on competition, which I don't think you are - if the price of a Windows license is too much then you'd go for linux or a cheaper version of Windows.

    The question then becomes "Are there enough people who would buy a copy at a lower price rather than engage in piracy to make up the revenue lost by cutting the price in the first place?". It's quite possible that there aren't, but it does indicate that Microsoft are more concerned about their profit margin than piracy rates...
    Of course, because as I've been saying, price doesn't affect piracy, so pricing is all about maintaining going concern/shareholder confidence/remaining competative, which you'd expect as MS is a business, not a charity.

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    Because the vast majority of people who pirate are either doing so by mistake or would pirate no matter the cost. If cost is a concern then you buy a cheaper product from a competitor or go without, which has the effect of driving down price or adding value for money - if you pirate the product instead of using a competitor then you decrease competition and are more likely to end up pushing up costs, and no-one who is intelligent enough to be concerned with value for money would be that stupid.
    You're missing the point. If there isn't a viable competitor product (or no product at all), and you still need it. Then what's your other option?.. Pay more than you think the product is worth?.. or duplicate it yourself (or indeed from knock-off nigel). Further more, if the price is reasonable, you'll easily find that 'by mistake' and 'no matter what the cost' copyright theft would still go down considerably.

    Just look at the 'dodgy' fag market. Every time the government increases the tobacco tax, the dodgy fag peddlers get more custom.

    The black market is simply a counter balance to excessive greed in the open market. Hence why piracy has value.
    Quote Originally Posted by Agent View Post
    ...every time Creative bring out a new card range their advertising makes it sound like they have discovered a way to insert a thousand Chuck Norris super dwarfs in your ears...

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    Banhammer in peace PeterB kalniel's Avatar
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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by aidanjt View Post
    You're missing the point. If there isn't a viable competitor product (or no product at all), and you still need it. Then what's your other option?.. Pay more than you think the product is worth?
    That's a question of how much you need it - if you can't live without it then the product must be worth really quite a lot. If however you think it's not worth it then you can't have needed it that badly and can go without.

    However there are plenty of viable competitors products in this area for most intents and purposes.

    Further more, if the price is reasonable, you'll easily find that 'by mistake' and 'no matter what the cost' copyright theft would still go down considerably.
    No you wouldn't. There isn't a single shred of evidence that lowering prices has ever resulted in a decrease of copyright theft as far as I know.

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    No you wouldn't. There isn't a single shred of evidence that lowering prices has ever resulted in a decrease of copyright theft as far as I know.
    Probably because the only significant direction software prices have taken is up. And you also know full well that piracy rates are next to impossible to quantify with any kind of accuracy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Agent View Post
    ...every time Creative bring out a new card range their advertising makes it sound like they have discovered a way to insert a thousand Chuck Norris super dwarfs in your ears...

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    Banhammer in peace PeterB kalniel's Avatar
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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by aidanjt View Post
    Probably because the only significant direction software prices have taken is up.
    Quite the opposite. PC games used to cost up to £40-45 back in the 90s, now they're routinely £25-30, which is a vast reduction without even accounting for inflation. Yet PC game piracy has soared in the same period - so much that you don't need any kind of accurate measure.

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    There isn't a single shred of evidence that lowering prices has ever resulted in a decrease of copyright theft as far as I know.
    Perhaps, but there is plenty of evidence to show that lower prices can lead to a vast increase in sales.

    While piracy will never be stopped, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that some of these sales may be pirate converts.

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    Quite the opposite. PC games used to cost up to £40-45 back in the 90s, now they're routinely £25-30, which is a vast reduction without even accounting for inflation. Yet PC game piracy has soared in the same period - so much that you don't need any kind of accurate measure.
    Indeed, but the number of home computers since the 90's has shot up too.

    A lot of PC games are simply console ports too, where the majority of work has been done for another market with less piracy.
    Conversion in this case is a minimal process compared to writing the entire game.

    It really is difficult to directly compare between different decades and markets.
    Last edited by Agent; 10-06-2009 at 03:35 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Saracen View Post
    And by trying to force me to like small pants, they've alienated me.

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    Yet PC game piracy has soared in the same period
    Correction, open downloading has soared. We have no idea what the state of Black Market piracy is like. Also, as my memory goes, PC games where ~£35 in the late 90's as well. That's why I started buying more powerful graphics cards, because I was saving £10-15 on each game over consoles by doing so.
    Quote Originally Posted by Agent View Post
    ...every time Creative bring out a new card range their advertising makes it sound like they have discovered a way to insert a thousand Chuck Norris super dwarfs in your ears...

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by Agent View Post
    Perhaps, but there is plenty of evidence to show that lower prices can lead to a vast increase in sales.

    While piracy will never be stopped, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that some of these sales may be pirate converts.
    There's nothing to support the (bolded) view though - more reasonable would be to assume more non-pirates think that a product of greater value for money is worth buying when they wouldn't buy it before - as that's the behaviour that has been demonstrated to be followed in trials. As far as I know the increase in sales for a pirated product is not significantly higher than the increase in sales for a non-pirated product (soft toys for example) when the price is reduced.

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by kalniel View Post
    There's nothing to support that view though
    Likewise, there's nothing at all to support your viewpoint. Not even a viable hypothesis. On the other hand, there are economic theories which factor in the black market effect when open market prices become excessive.
    Quote Originally Posted by Agent View Post
    ...every time Creative bring out a new card range their advertising makes it sound like they have discovered a way to insert a thousand Chuck Norris super dwarfs in your ears...

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    Quote Originally Posted by aidanjt View Post
    Likewise, there's nothing at all to support your viewpoint.
    Yes there is, I just gave an example - if the increase in sales for lowering price is no more than the increase in sales for a non-pirated product then it's reasonable to assume that the increase is due to non-pirates buying it when they wouldn't otherwise.

    Software piracy doesn't fit any economic models for traditional black market effects.

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    Re: Windows 7 RC

    steam sells hl for 99p.. they made a hefty profit from that

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