Assassin's Creed II - DRM requires *constant* internet connection..

[aidanjt]

Sure, but then they get sacked and you hire a new market analyst who doesn't make as many mistakes.

I think that's inaccurate. Market analysts have to make recommendations in the best interests of their clients or they won't be supported by the board and ultimately shareholders. If they didn't work they wouldn't be put up with.

Again, people make mistakes, that includes the employers of the market analyst, and clients of their firms. Remember, all pre-market 'sales figures' are entirely pulled out of the analysts rear end. You can't predict the future, period, all you can do is make a projection based on a bunch of assumed variables, and pushed through some economical baking paper which is asserted to be correct but with no real scientific backing, so 100% of the time those projection models are flawed. The situation is even worse when those analysts are even more far removed from the actual day to day business operations of the client than their own clients board of directors.

Okay my turn to talk about proportions: What proportion of people who would pirate a game that they wouldn't otherwise buy will go on to sell that pirated game themselves? My guess is it's so low as to be almost uncountable.

It only takes one or two to distribute copies to thousands or tens of thousands, who themselves might make copies to thousands if the buy-and-sell-on notion is correct. The problem isn't the number of initial pirates, but how many the actual pirates sell to.

So we're not really talking about stopping non-customers playing the game here, we're talking about targeting the few individuals around the world who enable would-be customers to avoid paying for the game. Fair enough, but that's simply talking about one of the mechanisms with which you target would-be customers. It's still not an actual interest in non-customers playing the game.

Wait, I thought the whole point of DRM was to target non-customers from playing the game. If that isn't it, then what's the point in it at all? To stop customers from pirating the game to non-customers? I already pointed out above that, that objective is flawed.

Sure, and most DRM schemes are designed to allow that for that very reason.

In the past that was true. However now the publishers are turning their sights on the second hand market, and lending to a friend means you lose an activation slot with many of the more aggressive DRM schemes.

A market analyst is not a bs profession. No company that sells a product can do without them for long, I can't believe you're suggesting otherwise.

Well, until someone cracks time travel, I'm afraid it is. There was plenty of market analysts who were proclaiming that borrowing could expand indefinitely, as did the bankers themselves. It turns out they were wrong, their theories were wrong, conventional wisdom and rational logic was right, and ordinary people again suffered for it because the big wigs were only concerned with their bottom line, and not how or if it would be sustainable. The projection figures are meaningless guesswork, nothing more.

The only way you get meaningful sales data is when you actually sell the product. If it's of sufficient use and quality to people, they'll buy it, and you'll make money. If they don't, they wont buy it, and you lose out. The RDF is starting to spring to mind here... Ah well. That's for another discussion.

[kalniel]

The situation is even worse when those analysts are even more far removed from the actual day to day business operations of the client than their own clients board of directors.

Doesn't sound like they would be a very good market analyst if that was the case, but I defer to those who make businesses successful.

Wait, I thought the whole point of DRM was to target non-customers from playing the game.

No, read the last however many posts in this thread.

If that isn't it, then what's the point in it at all?

See previous posts.

To stop customers from pirating the game to non-customers?

Nope.

In the past that was true. However now the publishers are turning their sights on the second hand market, and lending to a friend means you lose an activation slot with many of the more aggressive DRM schemes.

If they were trying to kill that they'd give you one activation full stop. Even the more aggressive ones give you enough to lend the game to a friend and most of them allow you to claim back on uninstall anyway. The only related thing they target there is multiple concurrent installs, but if you've lent the game to a friend then that's not an issue. The second hand market can work in publishers favour and most of them know that and are trying to leverage it through DLC for example.

The projection figures are meaningless guesswork, nothing more.

Are you saying you know better than the top business figures that employ market analysts then?

The only way you get meaningful sales data is when you actually sell the product.

And that data is used to refine your future predictions of course.

If it's of sufficient use and quality to people, they'll buy it, and you'll make money.

You're not factoring the ability to use said useful quality product for free. There are some people who would not buy it but continue to use it, ignorant or uncaring of longer term consequences.