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About LinkBacksMontgomeryshire .... Tory gain from LibDem.
Lembit Opik ousted, by a 13.2% swing from LD to Tory.
Holy Cow.
And that was some 210th on the Tory target list.
They miss out on seats in about 30th place, and pick up 210th. It's all over the place.
Labour
Conservatives
Liberal Democrats
SNP / Plaid Cymru
Respect
UKIP
BNP
Green
Other
I'm eligible to vote, but didn't
Montgomeryshire .... Tory gain from LibDem.
Lembit Opik ousted, by a 13.2% swing from LD to Tory.
Holy Cow.
And that was some 210th on the Tory target list.
They miss out on seats in about 30th place, and pick up 210th. It's all over the place.
mass voter fraud? and people unable to voteOriginally Posted by Saracen
Every site that I see one of these polls on has Lib Dems on top. Odd that the Tories look set to have the most votes. I guess it just goes to show the insignificant power of the internet (or maybe the intimidatingly large power of print media?).
At this moment, Tory and Labour are equal on 76 seats each, though that reflects an 18 seat Tory gain and a 17 seat Lab loss. IF that extrapolates in a linear fashion, the Tories will have the most seats and the most votes, but no overall majority.
Also, at the moment, the LibDems have about 20% of the vote and about 6% of the seats. You can see why they like the idea of PR ... and it's hard to argue against that principle.
This is supposed to be the 'poll of polls' (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...l-Tracker.html) and the average never really put the Lib-Dem on top. The Lib-Dem was ahead of Labour for a while, but even that changed on the eve.
Well done Hexus, you white, educated, middle-class male demographic, you!
There's a lot of truth in that. If a poll is to mean anything at all, it has to be carefully constructed to avoid any unintended built-in bias.
I remember a politics lecture when it was pointed out that a poll in the US (in the 1950's IIRC) predicted a Republican win and the Democrats actually got it. It turned out to be a phone poll and at that time, by definition, the most affluent were the only ones likely to have a phone and that gave a built-in Republican bias.
So .... be careful with giving credence to simple website polls, because you'll get a reaction that in all likelihood merely reflects the shape of the site user demographics, and not much else.
At the halfway point with 325 results declared, the results are :
Con 155 +34
Lab 122 -32
LD 23 -1
SNP 6 0
PC 3 +1
Other 16 -2
If that's a fair reflection for the final result, then the Tories get the most by far with 310, but they need 326 for an overall majority.
But also, currently, a Lab/LibDem combination has 145, which would give a 290 combined count and that would mean they still can't block the Tories without support from the "others", like SNP, Plaid and various NI parties. We could end up with not just the tail wagging the dog, but the tip of the tail wagging the dog.
What do you make of 'popular votes'? Would that provide a 'moral argument' (that's been mentioned on BBC) for Labour to stay in the office if they have the Lib-Dem's support? [I think that the number of Labour/Lib Dem votes exceed that of Tory&others?]
It's actually a pretty frightening thought. I'd almost rather see a conservative victory than give so much power to the minor parties.
Some of the shifts are all over the map.. About to hear Jacqui Smith...
..and she's gone.
Moral argument be damned, Labour had the chance to fight for electoral reform and did nothing. Interesting to see LibDems currently having more supporters and fewer seats than last year, so far.
Halle-flippin'-luyah. Flipping ... geddit?
In case anyone wonders, Jacqui Smith has been dumped, converting a 2000 majority into a 6000 Tory majority, with a 9.2% swing. Not entirely surprising after the expenses scandal, the husband's porn tapes on expenses and apparently living in her sisters broom closet and claiming expenses on her own home.
Regardless of party, it's good to such such blatant abuse receiving the reward it deserves. Shame she'll no doubt get that ruddy great golden handshake.
On an incidental note, it's interesting to see who's choosing to stay up to watch this stuff, given how important it is! I've got to fly to Portland, but I'll be checking in when I get back.
True. Though in respect of the seats to votes ratio, it always has been perverse.
But any party can gain a small seat with a small number of votes and lose a large one with many more. It's one of the implications of variable size constituencies, with them varying from 20,000-ish to 100,000 plus.
Though they currently have gained in votes and dropped in seats, that could yet self-correct.
What does seem pretty clear is that the great LD hope of a breakthrough has simply failed to materialise. They may or may not gain or lose seats overall, but they don't seem to have any chance of getting anywhere near the 100 mark that they dared to dream of. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Update ... about 2/3 of the results in, and :-
Labour 5.6m votes = 168 seats
LibDem 4.6m votes = 35 seats.
Hardly seems fair.
Have a good flight, TeePee.
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