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About LinkBacksthey are all the same and always will be give it 10 years and it will be the same story over again
Labour
Conservatives
Liberal Democrats
SNP / Plaid Cymru
Respect
UKIP
BNP
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I'm eligible to vote, but didn't
they are all the same and always will be give it 10 years and it will be the same story over again
Similar to the party line your toting then.Originally Posted by Aard
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for all intents it seems to be the same card minus some gays name on it and a shielded cover ? with OEM added to it - GoNz0.
Exit Polls
Conservatives: 307 seats
Labour: 255
Lib Dems: 59
Others: 29
No absolute majority for the Tories, but I am little surprised with the LD.
i think the exit polls where taken mainly at lab / con marginals. but i could be wrong.
i predict a RIOT.
Last edited by j1979; 06-05-2010 at 10:50 PM.
That makes a bit more sense, I cant see the Lib Dems only getting 59.
The edit polls, like any poll, have a margin of error, and they are also based on uniform spread, and we know that the effect of marginals is likely to mean the overall pattern is anything but uniform.
Exit polls are useful to give TV talking heads something to prattle on about (as they have been doing for 45 minutes now), in the absence of any real evidence.
Over the years, exit polls have been pretty accurate on occasion, and vastly out (like '92) on others. In other words, they're pretty much cobblers.
Yeah its been doing my head in for the last half an hour. The first seat has just gone to Labour (Houghton and Sunderland S), which is not a surprise as its a labour stronghold.
Round here, it was a Labour woman doing it. At the last General Election, all three major parties had someone asking for this info.
There's usually a couple of reasons. First, they can compare to voter lists to see who has, and more importantly, who hasn't voted. Each party will have a list of those hat they believe, for whatever reason, that they can rely on to vote for them. If they then see that people they believe support them haven't voted, you may well get a nudge, a visit, an offer of a lift to the polling station etc.
Note - they don't ask how you voted, just what your number is. And they only have their ideas of who you will vote for. If you had your door knocked on by all three parties, and told all three that you will definitely vote and definitely vote for them, you may well get a "reminder" from all three.
Second, it gives them an idea of turnout in the constituency, and their ability to get their vote out.
On short, there's nothing particularly ominous about being asked for this info, and depending on where you are, it could be any of all of the parties.
Having said all that, I always decline to give them my voting number. It's none of the party's business whether I have voted or not.
Oh, and we had a knock on the door from a Tory helper "reminding" us to vote, about 90 minutes before polls closed ..... which is more than we had from ANY of the parties during the campaign, during which we had a fair few leaflets, but not a single party showed their faces on my doorstep (or my neighbours) despite this most definitely being a marginal and a target.
Big swing to the Torries there though.
A swing which, IIRC, would give a Tory overall majority government if applied nationally (which obviously it won't be). Also, at 55%, a pretty low turnout. Mind you, a safe seat doesn't encourage turnout.
Also, if the Tories can manage an 8.4% swing in a Labour stronghold, it makes you wonder what it will be in marginals. It makes you wonder.
Ian Hislop just summed up the exit polls for me.. disappointing, as we were expecting change.. all we're getting is the same old Lab/ Con swingometer
Some talking head pointed out weeks ago that any poll using the uniform swing principle were pretty much bound to be off, because there are so many issues in this election that don't lend themselves to the assumptions in the models the polls are based on.
we got sidetracked and then forgot all about it !
According to the news there are some people still queuing up to vote but are being turned away. Why cant they go over 10pm?
Bit harsh people getting turned away who arrived at 21:30 etc....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/haveyours...ne_enough.html
Washington and Sunderland West, another Labour stronghold and a Labour whip .... 11.6% Lab to Con.
That would give Tory overall majority in uniform.
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