Unofficial Hexus Brexit Straw Poll - In, Out, Undecided?

[The Hand]

Let's be honest, the Tory leadership would never have offered the referendum if they were not worried about UKIP eating into their votes. Couple that with the polls saying that they might not even win a majority, and their hands were tied.

Whatever people think of Cameron, he stuck to his guns on actually delivering on the referendum promise after the election. Obama was straight on the phone to Cameron after the election to try and prevent Cameron on delivery on the election pledge.

[SeriousSam]

If you want a classic example of a political party who should be screaming leave, but don't because they believe it's the only way to get some of the things they want by the back door it is the Liberal Democrats. Here is the first paragraph from their document of principles;

"The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity. We champion the freedom, dignity and well-being of individuals, we acknowledge and respect their right to freedom of conscience and their right to develop their talents to the full. We aim to disperse power, to foster diversity and to nurture creativity. We believe that the role of the state is to enable all citizens to attain these ideals, to contribute fully to their communities and to take part in the decisions which affect their lives.

In it's current form the EU is the very antithesis of the statements highlighted in bold...

[TeePee]

Has anyone changed their mind over the last months? Were you previously undecided and now made a decision? What was the key information that caused this for you?

[peterb]

If anything, I've hardened my position. Cutting through the personality aspects, which, while exciting for the media, distract from the real issues, it comes down to self determination and the ability to reform the EU.

Cameron failed to achieve any real or lasting concessions, and one voice among 28 is unlikely to push through reforms. IIRC, no other country has stated that it supports the UK's desires for reform (although there were when DC was doing his round Europe tour) and the EU seems ambivalent about our remaining, apart from issuing a few threats - and personally I don't take kindly to threats.

Although misrepresented in the press, Boris Johnsons comments about the Eu beurocracy trying to create a superstate by stealth, something that neither Napoleon nor Hitler achieved by military means because we opposed it was quite a shrewd observation.

Stayin would counter that by saying that politics and diplomacy are better than war, which is partially true, but not if the end result is the same.

I think the actual result will be close, there won't be a decisive majority either way. If the BREXIT vote carries the day, then DC has said that he will start negations to leave (and it would destroy any remaining credibility if he doesn't). If the remain vote carries it by a narrow margin, then the debate will continue and the worst outcome could be that Corbyn (who is on record as being anti-EU until this campaign) could win the next general election.

However, my postal voting form dropped through the letterbox on Saturday, so I will be casting my vote in the next couple of days.

[The Hand]

Has anyone changed their mind over the last months? Were you previously undecided and now made a decision? What was the key information that caused this for you?

Same as peterb said, the unprecedented misrepresentation of the argument to leave the EU by the powers that be and media has assured my leave vote. If the UK votes to remain next month, then it's pretty much giving up on parliamentary democracy in the longer run. The UK public simply won't be allowed another referendum of this kind again.. the next referendum maybe whether we join the Euro or not imo.
The EU zealots will take it as a green light for more "intergration" at the expense of what is best for the people in individual nation states.

I'm willing to bet the majority of voters simply don't understand what the EU is. The BBC should ask 100 people in the street what they think the EU is. A significant proportion, if not the majority would get it wrong, possibly citing it as just a trading block etc. Within days, weeks or months of a "Remain" vote, I'm sure there will howls from some remain voters that they were deceived as some promises have already been broken and/or new EU proposals have emerged that are against the UK interest etc.

Whatever the result, I think David Cameron (and Osborne) could be gone before Obama leaves office or he'll definitely be gone within two years imo. His credibility has fallen drastically over the past few months and the Tories are already planning for a post-Cameron Prime Minister/Government. His ego will probably prevent him from resigning in the near term, so there could be a messy Caesarian coup.

[opel80uk]

If the remain vote carries it by a narrow margin, then the debate will continue and the worst outcome could be that Corbyn (who is on record as being anti-EU until this campaign) could win the next general election.

Whilst I disagree that Corbyn winning would be anywhere near the 'worst' outcome, there is no way he will win a GE. He is unelectable - and that is from someone who likes him. I agree that a narrow margin for remain means the debate simply rumbles on, but I happen to think come referendum we'll see, unfortunately IMO, a reasonable majority for Brexit.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Whilst I disagree that Corbyn winning would be anywhere near the 'worst' outcome, there is no way he will win a GE. He is unelectable - and that is from someone who likes him. I agree that a narrow margin for remain means the debate simply rumbles on, but I happen to think come referendum we'll see, unfortunately IMO, a reasonable majority for Brexit.

All Corbyn needs to do is to push our politics back to the centre instead of the increasingly right leaning situation we are in now,so I personally don't care if he ever gets into power. We need balance to the politics in this country and a proper opposition not another set of more pretend Conservatives.

It just shows you how right wing this country is when Nigel Farage with UKIP(who is probably closer to the BNP in some ways in how right leaning they are) is considered "better" than a traditional left leaning labour,as the current labour are more in the centre.

This country is getting no better than the US,when anybody seen as remotely left leaning is seen as an extremist,not the numerous ultra right leaning lot like the UKIP and BNP,etc and yet people here unlike the US seem to fool themselve in this country thinking they are not right wing. Yet so many here mock the US on their right wing politics,which is just ironic and smacks of hypocracy. Lets criticise Obama - the Democrats are probably more right wing than the Conservatives in this country are overall.

Edit!!

Expects the "Nigel Farage is the man", internet defence league to jump on me. It really isn't worth the effort - the responses will be predictable and agree to disagree and leave it at that.

[The Hand]

Voting leave doesn't make you a UKIP voter Cat!

Edit:

A Corbyn-lead Labour party/SNP coalition could a real possibility in 2020.. With another global recession due at some point.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Voting leave doesn't make you a UKIP voter Cat!

Edit:

A Corbyn-lead Labour party/SNP coalition could a real possibility in 2020.. With another global recession due at some point.

I was commenting on how people like calling out a traditional left leaning Labour as the biggest disaster for this country,whilst obviously a very right wing UKIP led or influenced government is obviously nowhere near a disaster. This country is getting more and more right wing to the extent that UKIP/BNP are not seen as being extreme but anything more left wing is. Corbyn is more traditional Labour,which means they are the equal and opposite of the traditional Conservatives.

It also means the Liberal Democrats would be the traditional centrist party.

UKIP and BNP would be consider ultra right wing parties and the Green Party ultra left wing. See how the Green Party is seen merely as being left wing now?? It is because Labour is now centrist not left wing. It is Labour only in name.

By having the balance it stops the politics of this country going too left or too right.

This country is going the way of the US with its right wing politics now but at the same time people are thinking they are not very right wing(when they are) and quite happy also to bash the US due to their right wing politics. Some here are bashing the current Conservatives and Democrats when they are very right wing already - IIRC,supposedly the current Democrats are more right wing in some ways than the Republicans under Reagon!

We are going the same way.

Like I said I don't really want to be argueing about this,but we still need balance in our politics which is sadly lacking.

Politics should not be allowed to go either way too much,as there needs to checks and controls. You don't have checks and controls,then you see what happens when countries go too far either way.

[The Hand]

It also means the Liberal Democrats would be the traditional centrist party.

Liberal Democrats would still be Liberal Democrats, if there was never such a thing as the EU. To put it another way for myself, if the Liberal Democrats weren't such a blindly Pro-EU party, I would probably vote for them, even with the obscenely unfair FPTP voting system. Trade and immigration will still happen outside the EU, but with a democratic accountable system (and therefore a legal system) that can be changed via the ballot box... good old fashioned democracy in other words.

In an odd way, actually having a referendum now could precisely be what the EU "intergrators" want, as they can potentially win either way. They can finally call the UK's bluff so to speak. If the UK leaves, they have a difficult country out of the way, that now cannot veto future plans and if the UK stays, it cannot realistically threaten to leave to get their way anymore and their concerns can be sidelined.

[peterb]

Jeremy Corbyn is very similar in outlook and behaviour to Michael Foot. Whether that is 'traditional' labour I wouldn't like say. The Labour Party was created to represent the 'working class' which I suppose at the time meant manual workers, although much manual work has disappeared since the 1930's.

The Labour Party has a bit of a problem in that if the encourage people to be upwardly mobile, the may change their political allegiance, so they either work to perpetuate class differentiation, or they move with the times, as Tony Blair did, to keep the support of their core voters. However that generally means a move away from the left wing.

Corbyn seems extreme when compared with Labour leaders over the last 40 years, with perhaps the exception of Neil Kinnock, who managed to lose an election against John Major - on a left wing agenda.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

No he is only extreme when compared to 25 years of centrist conservative light nu Labour and even more right wing conservatives and yet if Corbyn is the worst Uk government that makes your view mean you consider Nigel Farage and who ever is in charge of the BNP,who are very right wing not as bad.

It just shows you decades of mostly right wing and centrist politics have made anybody who is left leaning considered extreme.

Who is representing the left in the UK? The Greens and the SNP who were considered extreme left wing parties even more so then Labour.

They now seem even less extreme due to the shift in our politics.

It is the same issue facing the US where anyone considered notionally left wing is considered an extremist commy socialist.

People are so indoctrinated by decades of anti left propaganda by a mostly right leaning media they cannot even see how right wing our politics is becoming and actually think they are not right wing when they are.

Corbyn is what we need so we can yank our politics back to centre and actually have two opposing views,not mildly differing ones. Things are just wrong when UKIP and the BNP are considered more acceptable political parties since they are right wing.

This is all just Project Fear against the Left whilst any of degree of being right wing is absolutely fine.

Yet it was the left who helped create the NHS.

But the narrative is the left never have done good for this country,right? Only the right.

Oh,but the last two recessions came under Thatcher's conservative government and the non-left nu-conservative labour under Blair and Gordon.

Give me a break.

It's not about winning elections but about making sure this country does not become overly right wing or left wing hell hole.

You can see the big issues in the US where even a right wing government like Obama's who is more right wing than ours is considered a left wing socialist commy traitor.

People have no right to mock US politics if they feel that it is acceptable for own politics to go more and more towards it.

[peterb]

I stand by 40 years, which takes us back to Wilson and Callaghan. Neither of which would be seen as extreme, although Wilso at the time seemed Farley LW.

To some extent the left wing has alienated itself - and has found itself out of tune with the main stream. But then people always look for someone to blame, and the press, while far from perfect, makes a convenient scapegoat.

As for who represents the 'left wing' is debate able. The Green Party is essentially a single issue party. The SNP in Scotland, but they certainly have no right to speak for me as they didn't field a candidate in my constituency.

But if the general public is moving more to the right, then as Opel80K said, it probably makes Corbyn unelectable on his own merits, unless the meltdown over The referendum causes the Conservatives to lose the election rather than Corbyn winning, which is largely what happened in the Major/Kinnock election in 1993 - Kinnock lost rather than Major winning.

What is important is that, regardless of the Governing party, their needs to be a strong opposition to hold them to account - and that is true in any democratic process. It's also another reason to leave the EU, as there isn't a strong opposition, unless you count UKIP and those of similar persuasion from other countries, and there aren't many of them.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

I stand by 40 years, which takes us back to Wilson and Callaghan. Neither of which would be seen as extreme, although Wilso at the time seemed Farley LW.

To some extent the left wing has alienated itself - and has found itself out of tune with the main stream. But then people always look for someone to blame, and the press, while far from perfect, makes a convenient scapegoat.

As for who represents the 'left wing' is debate able. The Green Party is essentially a single issue party. The SNP in Scotland, but they certainly have no right to speak for me as they didn't field a candidate in my constituency.

But if the general public is moving more to the right, then as Opel80K said, it probably makes Corbyn unelectable on his own merits, unless the meltdown over The referendum causes the Conservatives to lose the election rather than Corbyn winning, which is largely what happened in the Major/Kinnock election in 1993 - Kinnock lost rather than Major winning.

What is important is that, regardless of the Governing party, their needs to be a strong opposition to hold them to account - and that is true in any democratic process. It's also another reason to leave the EU, as there isn't a strong opposition, unless you count UKIP and those of similar persuasion from other countries, and there aren't many of them.

So basically you are saying you would rather have Farage or Walker win the election. Gotcha.

[peterb]

So basically you are saying you would rather have Farage or Walker win the election. Gotcha.

Don't think I said that all.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Don't think I said that all.

Yes you did - you said specifically that Cobyn winning the election would be the worst possible outcome.

That means your position by extension Farage or Walker winning would be not as bad.

That means you rather they win the election than he does.

It also means you would rather an ultra right wing set of parties win the election than a newly left wing Labour.

Edit!!

If that is not the case then you will have no problem saying both Corbyn or Farage winning the election would be the worst outcomes.