https://www.scribd.com/document/4307...eal#from_embed
Boris on Twitter - https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/sta...107602944?s=20
"We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control — now Parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment #GetBrexitDone #TakeBackControl
3,320
11:35 AM - Oct 17, 2019"
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The New Deal in full - 64 pages:
https://www.scribd.com/document/4307...and#from_embed
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'NI remains in the UK customs territory' - Barnier.
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It will be a bit clearer when the EU27 leaders meet and give their verdict, but even then, it's not over.
SNP = against.
LibDem = against.
Labour (as per Corbyn) = against.
DUP (at the moment) = against.
Even some ERG members are making noises about being against.
Contrary-wise, there are a group of up to about 20 Labour MPs that want to get a desl done, and some might vote for this deal, despite Corbyn's decision.
It's currently very unclear what Westminster will do, and if they vote it down, then it appears dead. And then there's the so-called Benn Act, ready to kick in, driving an extension.
However .... there are also reports that some in the EU27 have had enough, and may take the position of "This Deal or No Deal", but certainly no extension. A prime candidate is Macron. And at that point, the Benn Act would be utterly irrelevant.
So, bypothesising, for the sake of argument, assume he comes out and says "Yes to this Deal, but if it doesn't go through, we will veto any extension and the UK leaves in two weeks".
What might that do in Parliament?
It'll probably stiffen some ERG spines to vote this deal down, but what about, say, LibDems? If their cboice is binary, imminent, and between this deal and a no-deal exit, would they still kill this deal if the result is their worst case scarario, a "no deal" exit this month?
What about Labour, even? Corbyn cites one reason for turning this deal down as being "loosening" of worker's rights (despite protections in this deal) but in the case of no deal, those EU protective locks aren't just loosened, they're entirely removed.
We don't know if Macron will take that step, but he's been anti-extension for ages, and had to have his arm bent to agree to the last one. We don't know, as it was behind closed doors, how that went, or what his conditions may have been. It could have been that he grudgingly agreed, but stipulated (privately) xabsolutrly, categorically this is the last time". We never get to see the backroom machinations, of which their are loads. What we get is the PR-approved spin.
All told, it's still too early to call it on whether this "deal" survives, or how it's demise comes about, and in which direction.
One thing is sure, though - we're still as split as ever.
Read the DUP’s new statement in full:
“Following confirmation from the Prime Minister that he believes he has secured a “great new deal” with the European Union the Democratic Unionist Party will be unable to support these proposals in Parliament.
The Democratic Unionist Party has worked since the referendum result to secure a negotiated deal as we leave the European Union. We have been consistent that we will only ever consider supporting arrangements that are in Northern Ireland’s long-term economic and constitutional interests and protect the integrity of the Union.
These proposals are not, in our view, beneficial to the economic well-being of Northern Ireland and they undermine the integrity of the Union. Our main route of trade on an East —West basis will be subject to rules of the European Union Customs Union, notwithstanding that Northern Ireland will remain part of the UK Customs territory.
All goods would be subject to a customs check regime regardless of their final destination. The default position, even for goods travelling from one part of our country to another, is that they are considered under the EU Customs code unless otherwise agreed.
We recognise that only those goods ultimately destined for the Republic of Ireland would be subject to tariffs but the reality remains that the EU would have a veto on which goods would be exempt and which would not under the Joint Committee arrangements. This is not acceptable within the internal borders of the United Kingdom.
Consumers in Northern Ireland would face the prospect of increased costs, and potentially less choice due to checks being implemented in order to facilitate the European Union. Throughout all the discussions on these issues we have been clear that Northern Ireland should not be subjected to administrative burdens which will be entrenched for the future.
On VAT Northern Ireland will again be bound into arrangements that the rest of the United Kingdom will not. There is a real danger that over time Northern Ireland will start to diverge across VAT and Customs and without broad support from the democratic representatives of the people of Northern Ireland.
While some progress has been made in recognising the issue of consent, the elected representatives of Northern Ireland will have no say on whether Northern Ireland should enter these arrangements.
The Government has departed from the principle that these arrangements must be subject to the consent of both unionists and nationalists in Northern Ireland. These arrangements would be subject to a rolling review but again the principles of the Belfast Agreement on consent have been abandoned in favour of majority rule on this single issue alone.
These arrangements will become the settled position in these areas for Northern Ireland. This drives a coach and horses through the professed sanctity of the Belfast Agreement.
For all of these reasons it is our view that these arrangements would not be in Northern Ireland’s long term interests. Saturday’s vote in Parliament on the proposals will only be the start of a long process to get any Withdrawal Agreement Bill through the House of Commons.”
https://order-order.com/2019/10/17/r...oris-new-deal/
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Via Twitter:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...959904770?s=20
Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
"No 10 source says Johnson will ask leaders to rule out a further delay - he’s expected to ask them to make clear it’s ‘the new deal or no deal but no delays’ he will tell EU leaders"
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"Jacob Rees-Mogg has announced that on Saturday’s sitting, MPs will be presented with a single motion, presenting a choice between Boris’s new negotiated deal and no deal. This will be entirely compliant with the provisions of the Benn Act, as by voting against the deal MPs would have given consent to leaving on the 31st without a deal."
https://order-order.com/2019/10/17/m...deal-saturday/
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Not sure what JRM says is true. He may want everyone to treat it as if it is, but legally?Originally Posted by Galant
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/sta...34973662175234
I am not even sure where to begin.
Would it be, the irony that the man who has been so against the Benn Act is appalled that Juncker is allegedly "overriding it"?
The silly notion that Juncker could even do such a thing?
The conclusion that the man exist only to moan about the EU?
The astonishing sad fact despite having long list of absurdities like this, he is still revered by enough people to make his party not an insignificant footnote.
Still, it's made my day, so thanks I guess.
So, Boris has got his wish. This must have been his plan since the Benn act - go and get a deal, but make sure it's a bad one with a ridiculous concession (NI), which means he's got a strong chance of losing on Saturday but will be able to claim that he did what he promised and got a deal. Pushes us into a much more likely GE and a no deal brexit.
Urgh.
Yep, apart from on this point - where we are 100% aligned!!
The problem is .... well, it's a case like getting the genie back in the bottle. Not easy, and probably not possible.
Can you think of anything that, at this point, is going to leave us anything but divided? I can't. Well, one distant possibility, but you won't like it, even if it happens.
So, what could happen?
1) We Leave, either end of month or later. Leavers will be delighted, assuming it's a real leaving, but Remainers won't be at all happy, but angry, bitter and resentful.
2) We end up Remaining, in which case Remainers will be delighted, but Leavers will be fuming, bitter, angry and resentful.
3) We get some kind of fudge, which will probably end up leaving almost nobody happy.
The distant possibility? We Leave, and lookjng back in 10 or 20 years time it becomes clear that Project Fear was just that, that Cassandra-like projections were wrong, and that trade with Rest-of-World has more than compensated for any EU slowdown, and maybe even that hasn't slowed down long-term.
I'm not predicting whether that will happen, one way or the other, just pointing out that IF it does, maybe we can then put the last 3 or 4 poisonous years behind us.
Conversely, we Leave, it turns out to be an utter disaster and we end up going back in, or trying to.
In each case, one side or the other will have conclusive data demonstrating that they were wrong, and t'other lot were right after all.
Then, maybe, we can all move on.
But if we Remain, we'll never know what would have happened, politically and economically, had we left, and I don't think Leavers will ever forgive or forget that. Not now. It's too late, and the genie is out of the bottle and not going back in. Had we never had a referendum at all, it wouldn't be this divided, but we did and we are where we are. Which is why I don't think you'll like it, as the only chance I see of the divide being healed is to Leave, and find out who was right, and who was wrong. Short of tbat, IMHO, the divide and the bitterness will stay.
Mr_Jon (18-10-2019)
Nope I cannot see any good way out of this.
The country could not decide what it wanted to do, the government can't device what it wants to do - and since the split is near as damn it 50% we are never going to agree.
I personally will never be happy with any "deal" or "agreement" that takes us out of the EU - but equally I know many/most leavers would never be happy with us staying in the EU.
At the moment we're heading straight for option 3) a massive fudge that no one is happy with.
The problem with then looking at "was it the right choice to leave" is that we'll never really know - we'll never be able to say with certainty that it was the right or wrong thing to do, simply as the real effects of this won't be felt for many years (10+ imo).
Still it's a massive mess, can't see a way out, and it just seems so bleak - in a world where we should be working closer than ever with the rest of the world, we're more divided and more separated than ever.
I'm sure they would let us back in; but only if eg we accept the Euro like everyone else. I used to think federal Europe was an awful idea, but tbh after seeing the awful behaviour in Westminster over the last couple of years I'm starting to think it is what we deserve.
I very much doubt that would be the only price of re-entry. Top of the list IMHO would be the rebate (zero chance of getting that back), and the Schengen opt-out.
But I draw a different lesson from Westminster antics to that. We need to restructure Westminster, not add a federal EU layer on top. Also, if you think politicians antics are exclusive to Westminster and the EU is immune, well, someone close to me is a (now retired) senior MEP and the inside accounts suggest our MPs are amateurs.
DanceswithUnix (18-10-2019)
On the last point, my perspective is that once out of the EU, we (as in the UK) can work much more closely with the rest of the world, just as soon as large numbers of "competencies" are returned to Westminster from Brussels, where many currently reside.
Also, as a close geographic neighbour to the EU there's no reason we can't work closely with them, too, but as an independent nation not tied in to the EU. What we can't (and I sure don't) expect is to leave and still keep membership privileges. No having cake, and eating it. But there's no reason for not reaching a mutually beneficial arrsngement, in trade, security, crime-fighting, etc, if both sides want it. Whether they do or not remains to be seen, assuming we do actually leave.
Opinion piece on the new deal by Martin Howe, Chairman of Lawyers for Britain, who is apparently pro-Brexit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ce-pay-freedom
The TLDR - it's a tolerable deal for Brexit. Better than May's deal but worse than no deal, because it locks the UK into the ECJ for at least a long while, requires large financial commitments, and due to the political situation at present, it could be subject to all sorts of additional clauses and amendments that could turn it into a horrible deal.
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