Coronavirus

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/06/lockd...home-12514431/

Sweeping social distancing measures could gradually be eased ‘in the weeks to come’ if the nation plays its cards right. Housing and Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick urged Britons to stay at home as much as possible to curb the spread of coronavirus and to resist the temptation of sunny weather. He said there were no ‘imminent plans’ to impose greater restrictions after warnings outdoor exercise could be banned unless people played closer attention to lockdown rules. He told BBC Breakfast: ‘It would be very unfortunate if we had to do so and make it harder for people, particularly people who live in flats in towns and cities, to get the exercise they deserve. Nobody wants to see that happen. ‘Everyone needs to play their part, if we do that we will be able to in a sensible measure lift these restrictions sooner and begin to turn the tide on the virus. So please, as we approach more good weather it seems and the Easter weekend, play your part, stay at home, protect the NHS and help to save people’s lives.’

Over the weekend Brighton and Hove City Council claimed social distancing had been rendered ‘impossible’ after people flocked to the town’s famous seafront. Police in London and other parts of the country despaired as thousands of people ignored social distancing guidance and flocked to parks to sunbathe. At yesterday’s Downing Street press conference Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the length of the lockdown is ‘entirely dependent’ on people ‘following the rules’. For all the latest news and updates on Coronavirus, click here. For our Coronavirus live blog click here. Jenrick said there is currently ‘excess capacity’ in intensive care units ‘across the country’, which must be maintained if the country is to overcome the Covid-19 pandemic. Speaking via a videolink that was facing connection issues, he added: ‘If we can do that then we can look in the weeks to come to begin to very carefully… lift some of those measures. ‘But an exit strategy that’s sustainable will also have to be accompanied by much greater testing and tracing than we are able to do today.’ Jenrick said Boris Johnson is ‘still very much in charge of the Government’ despite being taken to hospital last night after suffering from ‘persistent coronavirus symptoms’. He added: ‘He spent the night in hospital and of course we all wish him well and we hope that as a result of these tests he will be able to come back to Downing Street as soon as possible.

Edit!!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/m...down-s6w9qtgc0

The Times says the lockdown will have to end by June at the latest according to Treasury sources.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Oh:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604

This is not good - hope its a precautionary measure.

[ik9000]

Oh:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604

This is not good - hope its a precautionary measure.

well that is significantly worse than the "routine tests" as a "precautionary measure" they were talking about last night! Hang in there BJ you mop-haired touselly rapscallian! Doesn't matter what your politics etc you don't wish this on anyone.

[Jonj1611]

Boris Johnson moved to IC can't be good, can't see IC for precautionary measure?

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

One of the newspapers said the following:

It is understood Johnson was moved to the intensive care unit just short of an hour and a half ago.

The decision was made by his medical team after his condition worsened over the course of Monday. The prime minister is understood to be conscious and to have been moved as a precaution in case he needs ventilation.

[Terbinator]

https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/st...809527809?s=20

On O2 last night allegedly.

[TeePee]

The model for the US is falling a long way behind in terms of hospitalizations. Here's the current model with current social distancing: IHME | COVID-19 Projections This is indicating 165K hospitalizations on April 4.

Current data: Most recent data You can ignore the 22K total at the top, as many States aren't reporting. Those which are, including NY, are showing 15-20% of detected cases are hospitalized. Possibly 40-60K country wide. Again, very variable based on different State's ability to test. This is a very long way from the predictions.

This model has now been updated. The expected number of Hospitalizations has been cut in half, and the anticipated number of vents for the entire country has been reduced to 25k. Fewer than the NY Governor was demanding for his State alone. If that model plays out, the US will have no difficulty meeting the need for ventilators.

The anticipated total deaths has also been reduced to 80K from 100K. In the last couple of days figures have been below the lower end of the models predictions. Great news, and hopefully it will continue.

[j1979]

From my perspective, there's so much that remains unknown that only testing can start to clear up that I'm not sure debating numbers is worthwhile yet. Instead, the other question is how long can people realistically be expected to not work or businesses remain closed? I've been made inactive from work (not fired but not working and will receive a minimum wage stipend for this month) - and if it's just a month or so we should be okay - but it's far less than what we need to live on and so beyond a month or so my family will start to struggle to pay regular bills. Then what am I supposed to do?

I'm already preparing my CV and considering looking for work in sectors that are still ticking. Not everyone will have that option.

If a treatment isn't forthcoming shortly we might be faced with the reality that the most vulnerable need to be properly quarantined/isolated and everyone else starts to go back to work. What other option is there?

Sorry to hear about your personal situation, I hope the lock down is not too much longer. Is the situation on the rock more like Spain or the UK? I mean in regards to the Supermarkets and panic that seems to be in the UK but Spain, at least where I am is fairly calm and supermarkets are well stocked and people are considerate. Compared to the UK where I witnessed a punch up over 12 bog rolls.

Who's goning to say who is the most vunerable? A 94 YO in Spain just recovered and our 55 YO PM is now going through a similar battle. The Antibody passport is a good idea but how far away is that?

Anyway, in regards to what testing can clear up. We already have a 10,000 strong case study that is South Korea. Every arrival has a 4 stage test, constant random testing in all accross the country, and contact tracing, asymtomatic or not. New cases are isolated and contained. The active cases is failing every day, which proves they are on top of the situation. Not sure of their critical care situation, but as they suffered a MERS outbreak in 2015 it's assumed they have been prepared for a while. The death figures will be skewed because of the aging population though, which should be taken into account in the final mortality rate. Japan is similar.


Korea, South
Confirmed: 10,331
Deaths: 192
Recovered: 6,694
Existing: 3,445

1.89% current death rate

Japan
Confirmed: 3,906
Deaths: 92
Recovered: 592
Existing: 3,222

2.45% current death rate

1 country closer to Europe that had the lowest death rate of any large sample is Israel, with many existing cases expect the death rate to rise.

Israel
Confirmed: 9,006
Deaths: 59
Recovered: 585
Existing: 8,362

0.65% current Death rate.


The mortality rate estimates have not changed, it's 1%.

People saying otherwise are generally news outlets that are concerned about the economy and want to downplay the situation.

This is not seasonal Flu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ

[TeePee]

Sorry to hear about your personal situation, I hope the lock down is not too much longer. Is the situation on the rock more like Spain or the UK? I mean in regards to the Supermarkets and panic that seems to be in the UK but Spain, at least where I am is fairly calm and supermarkets are well stocked and people are considerate. Compared to the UK where I witnessed a punch up over 12 bog rolls.

Who's goning to say who is the most vunerable? A 94 YO in Spain just recovered and our 55 YO PM is now going through a similar battle. The Antibody passport is a good idea but how far away is that?

Anyway, in regards to what testing can clear up. We already have a 10,000 strong case study that is South Korea. Every arrival has a 4 stage test, constant random testing in all accross the country, and contact tracing, asymtomatic or not. New cases are isolated and contained. The active cases is failing every day, which proves they are on top of the situation. Not sure of their critical care situation, but as they suffered a MERS outbreak in 2015 it's assumed they have been prepared for a while. The death figures will be skewed because of the aging population though, which should be taken into account in the final mortality rate. Japan is similar.


Korea, South
Confirmed: 10,331
Deaths: 192
Recovered: 6,694
Existing: 3,445

1.89% current death rate

Japan
Confirmed: 3,906
Deaths: 92
Recovered: 592
Existing: 3,222

2.45% current death rate

1 country closer to Europe that had the lowest death rate of any large sample is Israel, with many existing cases expect the death rate to rise.

Israel
Confirmed: 9,006
Deaths: 59
Recovered: 585
Existing: 8,362

0.65% current Death rate.


The mortality rate estimates have not changed, it's 1%.

People saying otherwise are generally news outlets that are concerned about the economy and want to downplay the situation.

This is not seasonal Flu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIGhz3uwuQ

Again, Case Fatality Rates are a reflection on testing, not actual mortality.

[j1979]

Again, Case Fatality Rates are a reflection on testing, not actual mortality.

Mortality is 1% seasonal flu is 0.1%

[TeePee]

Mortality is 1% seasonal flu is 0.1%

Mortality among estimated total infections of the seasonal Flu is 0.1%. Mortality among tested and confirmed infections of Coronavirus is what you listed in your previous post. Without estimates of total infections of Coronavirus, you can't compare to the flu. Those estimates are significantly higher than the tested and confirmed cases, with 95% or more cases going undetected.

The mortality rate among tested and confirmed cases of Swine Flu was 3.5%.

[kompukare]

Mortality among estimated total infections of the seasonal Flu is 0.1%. Mortality among tested and confirmed infections of Coronavirus is what you listed in your previous post. Without estimates of total infections of Coronavirus, you can't compare to the flu. Those estimates are significantly higher than the tested and confirmed cases, with 95% or more cases going undetected.

The mortality rate among tested and confirmed cases of Swine Flu was 3.5%.

Well, since S.Korean (and Taiwan) have pretty much kept this in control, they most be pretty close to having tested everyone who had it.
That is what their testing, quarantining, testing, contact tracing, testing, and testing implies.
So their figures must be pretty close.

[DanceswithUnix]

So their figures must be pretty close.

Also if they were miles out you would expect the random testing to pick up all those symptom-less people.

[TeePee]

Well, since S.Korean (and Taiwan) have pretty much kept this in control, they most be pretty close to having tested everyone who had it.
That is what their testing, quarantining, testing, contact tracing, testing, and testing implies.
So their figures must be pretty close.

They're obviously doing a lot better than countries like the US, where testing has been extremely poor. Their detected cases might indicate an upper limit for the actual mortality rate. However, it's likely there's likely to have been a significant number of undetected cases. At the start of their outbreak, they had a religious cult with a large number of cases. 9000 members reported having had symptoms and we're tested. Only about 2000 tested positive for an active infection. The others had either already recovered, or had the flu, or another cold virus. Then there are the asymptomatic..

Without good data, it's hard to estimate the total number infected, as discussed earlier in the thread.

[j1979]

Mortality among estimated total infections of the seasonal Flu is 0.1%. Mortality among tested and confirmed infections of Coronavirus is what you listed in your previous post. Without estimates of total infections of Coronavirus, you can't compare to the flu. Those estimates are significantly higher than the tested and confirmed cases, with 95% or more cases going undetected.

The mortality rate among tested and confirmed cases of Swine Flu was 3.5%.

you obviously didn't read the post. read it then reply. if South Korea had not got almost all the cases isolted and logged, without a lockdown how are they managing to reduce active cases, with an R0 of 2? Or are you suggesting South Korea are lying?

I know you like to make up figures and extrapolate and in your own words ignore data, but you are wearing blinkers at best and lying at worse.

2009 Swine flu UK timeline, stage before the vacine mid pandemic

22 October 2009: It's announced that Swine flu cases in the UK almost doubled from the previous week to 53,000. The number of patients needing hospital care has risen to 506 in England with 99 in critical care – the highest since the pandemic began. Deaths increased to 128. The total number of cases is now estimated to be 435,000.

Swine Flu UK
0.25% death rate of confirmed cases
0.029% estimated mortality (based on approx x 10 untested/unconfirmed)


Coronavirus UK
10.29% death rate of confirmed cases
1% estimated mortality adding the same logic to corona virus ( x 10 untested)

[TeePee]

you obviously didn't read the post. read it then reply. if South Korea had not got almost all the cases isolted and logged, without a lockdown how are they managing to reduce active cases, with an R0 of 2? Or are you suggesting South Korea are lying?

I know you like to make up figures and extrapolate and in your own words ignore data, but you are wearing blinkers at best and lying at worse.

2009 Swine flu UK timeline, stage before the vacine mid pandemic


Swine Flu UK
0.25% death rate of confirmed cases
0.029% estimated mortality (based on approx x 10 untested/unconfirmed)


Coronavirus UK
10.29% death rate of confirmed cases
1% estimated mortality adding the same logic to corona virus ( x 10 untested)

Have another read of that Wikipedia article. That 53,000 isn't tested and confirmed cases. It's an estimate of new weekly cases, for the week of October 22, based on HPA modelling. Awkward.

But also, why would you assume the same rate of testing, given the easy availability of influenza tests, versus the complete failure of Coronavirus testing?