Coronavirus

[TeePee]

Flu kills between 250k to 500k a year. so far with an semi global lockdown covid-19 stands at 70k. by next weekend expect it to approch 150K. This is with mitigation, in the US alone without mitigation... 1.5 -2.2m. So in one country that represents 4.25% of global population it would kill minium x3 the global yearly death toll from flu.




I think your argument is along the same lines as climate change denial, it's just basically your hunch with flawed logic and selective data.

Could you point out the flaw in the logic, or show me any other data relating to total infections? Because I haven't found much, at all, and stated very clearly that the data used is pretty weak.

The model for the US is falling a long way behind in terms of hospitalizations. Here's the current model with current social distancing: IHME | COVID-19 Projections This is indicating 165K hospitalizations on April 4.

Current data: Most recent data You can ignore the 22K total at the top, as many States aren't reporting. Those which are, including NY, are showing 15-20% of detected cases are hospitalized. Possibly 40-60K country wide. Again, very variable based on different State's ability to test. This is a very long way from the predictions.

[Domestic_Ginger]

He did wish it on most of the population with his herd immunity bollocks.....

To be fair I doubt he has any idea whats really going on as long as he can look smug. There is always a puppet master.

Look at the Novichok; he only had to announce they knew what it was and probably where it was most probably made. Instead he concluded it was definately the russians. In the end he was right but at that time the information was inconclusive; the man from DSTL had to come out to correct him.

With Trump its a reality TV show. With BJ is it just so he can be smug?

Johnson's fiancee is also stricken.

[Domestic_Ginger]

Could you point out the flaw in the logic, or show me any other data relating to total infections? Because I haven't found much, at all, and stated very clearly that the data used is pretty weak.

The model for the US is falling a long way behind in terms of hospitalizations. Here's the current model with current social distancing: IHME | COVID-19 Projections This is indicating 165K hospitalizations on April 4.

Current data: Most recent data You can ignore the 22K total at the top, as many States aren't reporting. Those which are, including NY, are showing 15-20% of detected cases are hospitalized. Possibly 40-60K country wide. Again, very variable based on different State's ability to test. This is a very long way from the predictions.

330k whoa. The error seems to be quite high at peak time on 22 APR with 250k beds needed!

I hope you guys get on top of it.

[TeePee]

330k whoa. The error seems to be quite high at peak time on 22 APR with 250k beds needed!

I hope you guys get on top of it.

New York is the hardest hit. The model says 70,000 beds needed. There are 14,000 currently hospitalized.

[j1979]

Could you point out the flaw in the logic, or show me any other data relating to total infections? Because I haven't found much, at all, and stated very clearly that the data used is pretty weak.

The model for the US is falling a long way behind in terms of hospitalizations. Here's the current model with current social distancing: IHME | COVID-19 Projections This is indicating 165K hospitalizations on April 4.

Current data: Most recent data You can ignore the 22K total at the top, as many States aren't reporting. Those which are, including NY, are showing 15-20% of detected cases are hospitalized. Possibly 40-60K country wide. Again, very variable based on different State's ability to test. This is a very long way from the predictions.

The flaw in the logic:
* you don't have any model for social distancing global deaths for flu
* the data for deaths on coronavirus is with mitigation (half the world on lockdown)
* flu kills upto 500k a year
* covid19 without mitigation in the US alone estimated to kill 2.2m (upper estimate)
* flu in the US without mitigation estimated to kill 61,000 (upper estimate)
* death toll in the US in 2 days will surpass the total the for yearly death from flu 12,000 (lower estimate)
* your statement of less deadly than flu goes against all the worlds offical estimates 1% vs 0.1%
* you fail to take into account flu can be asymptomatic
* you fail to take into account under unreported flu estimates but apply the oppersite logic to coronavirus.

data from the CDC website
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html



so i'll leave it there you are clearly in the Bolsonaro camp, and your points are dogmatic, no point continuing the discussion.

[TeePee]

Johnson's fiancee is also stricken.

'But hasn't been tested'. Given that she's been in proximity to known infected, has symptoms and is pregnant should put her first in line for a test. Are they really that hard to come by, or is she being used as a sacrifice to show that they really aren't as privileged as they are?

[ik9000]

TeePee according to that website's about-data page the quality of data is most vague for the worst affected states and their sources are more vague for those states:

All our information comes from state/district/territory public health authorities—or, occasionally, from trusted news reporting, official press conferences, or (very occasionally) tweets or Facebook updates from state public health authorities or governors...

...Some crucial states in this outbreak, notably California, Washington, and New York, have not been regularly reporting their total number of people tested. For these, we have to use other reporting tools: directly asking state officials, watching news conferences, gleaning information from trusted news sources, and whatever else it takes to present reliable numbers. Our hope is that all the states will begin providing comprehensive statistics,

It's amazing some journalists felt they had to create something to try and work out some stats! Is there no US health dept branch responsible for pulling this kind of info together?

[TeePee]

The flaw in the logic:
* you don't have any model for social distancing global deaths for flu
* the data for deaths on coronavirus is with mitigation (half the world on lockdown)
* flu kills upto 500k a year
* covid19 without mitigation in the US alone estimated to kill 2.2m (upper estimate)
* flu in the US without mitigation estimated to kill 61,000 (upper estimate)
* death toll in the US in 2 days will surpass the total the for yearly death from flu 12,000 (lower estimate)
* your statement of less deadly than flu goes against all the worlds offical estimates 1% vs 0.1%
* you fail to take into account flu can be asymptomatic
* you fail to take into account under unreported flu estimates but apply the oppersite logic to coronavirus.

data from the CDC website
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html



so i'll leave it there you are clearly in the Bolsonaro camp, and your points are dogmatic, no point continuing the discussion.

Wait a sec...

Flu kills up to 650,000 each year, 61,000 in the US, WITH mitigation. A vaccine. Far better and more effective mitigation than social distancing will ever be. (And that vaccine is easy to get, for free in the US)

Total death toll is useful only when compared to total infections. Covid has killed more people in the US than Ebola, but we can't say the mortality rate is higher.

I have taken asymptomatic flu cases in to account, hence why I'm using estimates of total infections for both Flu and Coronavirus, to compare like with like in the closest possible manner.

The Case Fatality Rate for Swine flu in the US was 3.5%. This is the problem with Case fatality rates, they are reflective of the percentage of people tested, far more than the actual mortality rate among total infections. Compare the CFR in Germany at about 1.5% with the CFR in the UK of over 10%. You can't claim the virus is suddenly much worse in the UK than Germany. The difference is that Germany is simply testing and detecting a greater percentage of cases. This is the same mistake that people have been making since the start of this outbreak.

Also, these aren't logical flaws. They are counterpoints in a discussion.

[[GSV]Trig]

↓↓↓↓↓ Hope this guy gets the maxium possible sentence ↓↓↓↓↓

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/man-arrest...131827400.html

In this day and age, it wouldn't surprise me idiots doing stuff like this for the internet lolz...

[ik9000]

'But hasn't been tested'. Given that she's been in proximity to known infected, has symptoms and is pregnant should put her first in line for a test. Are they really that hard to come by, or is she being used as a sacrifice to show that they really aren't as privileged as they are?

My guess would be lack of test kits almost certainly. Hard to imagine the alternative holding water? I suppose she might have really really annoyed the wrong person with the power to make those sort of things happen but even then I would hope they wouldn't be so callous!

Edit the BBC article states Boris is admitted to hospital for testing. He's not on a ventilator, etc rather he's getting checked out. Reason? High temp for a while now - and it's stopping him going to work. So they're going to test him and really work out if he's ok and able to go do the whole PM thing. Which is kind of what we all need him to be doing. Assuming his partner has just the same issue it is presumably less urgent to test her for such mild symptoms.

I have to say when someone told me Boris had been taken into hospital I assumed something very different from the way it's presented in the news article on it.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital for tests, 10 days after testing positive for coronavirus, Downing Street has said.

He was taken to a London hospital on Sunday evening with "persistent symptoms" - including a temperature.

It is said to be a "precautionary step" taken on the advice of his doctor.

The prime minister remains in charge of the government, but the foreign secretary is expected to chair a coronavirus meeting on Monday morning.

Mr Johnson is expected to stay overnight and is having what have been described as "routine tests", according to BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg.

[j1979]

Wait a sec...

Flu kills up to 650,000 each year, 61,000 in the US, WITH mitigation. A vaccine. Far better and more effective mitigation than social distancing will ever be. (And that vaccine is easy to get, for free in the US)

Total death toll is useful only when compared to total infections. Covid has killed more people in the US than Ebola, but we can't say the mortality rate is higher.

I have taken asymptomatic flu cases in to account, hence why I'm using estimates of total infections for both Flu and Coronavirus, to compare like with like in the closest possible manner.

The Case Fatality Rate for Swine flu in the US was 3.5%. This is the problem with Case fatality rates, they are reflective of the percentage of people tested, far more than the actual mortality rate among total infections. Compare the CFR in Germany at about 1.5% with the CFR in the UK of over 10%. You can't claim the virus is suddenly much worse in the UK than Germany. The difference is that Germany is simply testing and detecting a greater percentage of cases. This is the same mistake that people have been making since the start of this outbreak.

Also, these aren't logical flaws. They are counterpoints in a discussion.

Another flaw in your logic:

In the UK only over 65, pegnant or at risk get it. Look at the death rate for the massive percent of the population that never get vaccinated.

vaccine uptake rate is 72.6% n 65+ year-olds, even if you tripple the death rate of flu to account for vaccine uptake it's still nowhere near the death rate of coronavirus.


And swine flu for which there was no vaccine, and no social distancing was 500 deaths, coronavirus is already 10 times higher in the UK. So in the words of Lionel Hutz i rest my case.

[TeePee]

Another flaw in your logic:

In the UK only over 65, pegnant or at risk get it. Look at the death rate for the massive percent of the population that never get vaccinated.

vaccine uptake rate is 72.6% n 65+ year-olds, even if you tripple the death rate of flu to account for vaccine uptake it's still nowhere near the death rate of coronavirus.

Are you still trying to use CFR for Coronavirus to compare?

[j1979]

Are you still trying to use CFR for Coronavirus to compare?

ill leave it there you are spreading dangerous false information, and to be honest it's an insult to the dead., and you should be ashamed. I think you should be banned from the thread, as per govement advice to stop the spread of misinformation.

[Galant]

From my perspective, there's so much that remains unknown that only testing can start to clear up that I'm not sure debating numbers is worthwhile yet. Instead, the other question is how long can people realistically be expected to not work or businesses remain closed? I've been made inactive from work (not fired but not working and will receive a minimum wage stipend for this month) - and if it's just a month or so we should be okay - but it's far less than what we need to live on and so beyond a month or so my family will start to struggle to pay regular bills. Then what am I supposed to do?

I'm already preparing my CV and considering looking for work in sectors that are still ticking. Not everyone will have that option.

If a treatment isn't forthcoming shortly we might be faced with the reality that the most vulnerable need to be properly quarantined/isolated and everyone else starts to go back to work. What other option is there?

[TeePee]

ill leave it there you are spreading dangerous false information, and to be honest it's an insult to the dead., and you should be ashamed. I think you should be banned from the thread, as per govement advice to stop the spread of misinformation.

There's nothing false here. It's weak, and incomplete. The important part is not to believe the CFR and think it's the end of the world. That is reflective of testing ability, far more than actual mortality. Let's wait and see what the antibody testing shows.

[Spreadie]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586

So, either it can jump species or someone messed up their lab results.