Coronavirus

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

To put in context the UK has 8.8 million people over 70 years old. Overall 15 million people in the UK have longterm health problems.

There are also many people who are live-in carers,ie,7 million. That means lots of old people are living with younger people and the latter have to self isolate too,as they can spread the illness to older folk. Lots of households in the UK are multi-generational. 1.8 million of the 9.6 million households in the UK are multi-generational.

Even if people go "back to work" a huge number of the population can't go back to work in a normal way and will need to self-isolate or reduce movements significantly. That includes whole households with older folk or younger people with health problems. So around probably 10~20million people I estimate,maybe more.

Also if anyone in a household gets ill,they will need to self isolate too.

So for a few weeks of isolation and restriction of movements,people are moaning,when literally EVERY other country in the world is doing it - even poor third world countries which don't have much social care.You are getting paid by the government for the period of the lockdown. It is being done to flatten the curve.

If a communist government quarantined nearly 70 million people,and restricted movement of nearly 700~800 million more people,it tells you something. If poor third world countries are doing it its telling you they are not taking it lightly.

Everyone in this thread is in the same position as everyone on the whole planet.

If you are not living with someone old/vulnerable in the first place,count yourself very lucky,ie,in a few weeks when restrictions pass,you can probably go out to work,etc. The government won't be locking down all the people for months as it can't afford it anyway. No government can.

Even at current levels NHS staff are starting to get infected at alarming rates. 100s of people working for Great Ormond Street hospital are infected and can't go to work as an example. If we started loosing medical personal to illness,things will regress,especially if their whole household has to self isolate too.

The slow response of our government,ignoring offers of test kits,ventilators,etc means we need to lock down longer than normal.

More ventilators and test kits earlier,would mean our healthcare system would reach saturation point slower. More PPE would have meant less medical staff would get infected. This is why we need to lockdown,to stop overwhelming the healthcare system. Remember the NHS has to treat not only Covid19 patients but all of those 15 million young and old people with longterm health problems. Saturation of the medical system also affects everyone of those 15 million people too.

If a Tory government and people such as Trump/Republicans are now increasingly locking down things,it tells you it is not a joke. These are parties of "business" so it is telling to me they are using these measures.

Edit!!

Also the predicted peak is in a week to 10 days for us,so if anything its important people try and stick to their self isolation as well as possible for everyone's sake.

The quicker we can manage the numbers,the quicker we can start going back to some degree of normal.

[TeePee]

How do we get back to normal?

If this came to the UK with just a few people, then a few people are all it takes to get this going again. All the quarantine and social distancing can't fix that. It might flatten the curve, but the same number (ish) end up dead, just spread over a longer period. Reducing the pressure on healthcare will save some.

Herd immunity is a failing idea when 70% of the population have to get the virus. Even in a theoretical place where it's as mild as the flu, or a tenth as mild as the flu, that's millions dead.

A vaccine is 12-16 months away. Shutting down the economy that long means there's nothing left to go back to.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

How do we get back to normal?

If this came to the UK with just a few people, then a few people are all it takes to get this going again. All the quarantine and social distancing can't fix that. It might flatten the curve, but the same number (ish) end up dead, just spread over a longer period. Reducing the pressure on healthcare will save some.

Herd immunity is a failing idea when 70% of the population have to get the virus. Even in a theoretical place where it's as mild as the flu, or a tenth as mild as the flu, that's millions dead.

A vaccine is 12-16 months away. Shutting down the economy that long means there's nothing left to go back to.

I said some degree of normal.

I also said restrictions will start to ease off in a few weeks.

Also you really don't seem to understand what I said about why flattening the curve is important. It affects more than people who contract Covid19,it affects everyone who uses the NHS and all of the medical staff. The same with all healthcare systems worldwide. If Trump and BoJo have backtracked on their original herd immunity plans,then it tells you something that they would rather have the economy have a hit now.

Your way of moaning and saying everyone should just walk about and get sick will have even worse economic effects,as with too many sick people at anyone point,you won't have enough people to go to work.

Because again you need to understand with more people getting sick,it means the viral load per person increases,and that is how younger people are dying from this - excessive viral load.

The same as NHS and medical staff getting sick and dying - viral load. Viral load plays an important part in whether you get sick and whether you actually die from this.

So tell me how you are going to suddenly come with replacements for dead and very sick doctors and nurses,instantly?

More people will die,if the healthcare system collapses in the short term.

The fact is the whole world is enforcing measures - it tells me governments are moving to extreme measures as they are worried if they don't do what they are doing in the short term,things will be worse than your method of doing nothing.

Also guess what?? Things like social distancing and wearing masks might be things people need to do for the next 12 months anyway.

Even Japan has now moved to a state of emergency.

[TeePee]

Not my way, chap. While I certainly point out the significantly lower mortality rate than a lot of people are freaked out over, I'm not advocating people just walk it off. But isolating just the vulnerable to try to save the economy has to be a part of the discussion.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

You are acting like governments won't ease off restrictions as they will - the fact is we need to get infections and deaths down to a manageable level. If 99% of all governments are following similar kinds of actions worldwide ,then it says they have computed what is the lesser of two evils. If it is just a normal flu/cold they wouldn't be doing any of this IMHO and I would imagine governments are quite aware of the real figures and real mortality rate. After all they are consulting with 1000s of scientists,and medical experts worldwide.

Almost the entirely of governments are moving towards more severe restrictions - even Japan:
https://www.france24.com/en/20200406...er-coronavirus

Japan also did not enforce as much restrictions too.

Even Sweden is mulling new measures despite not enforcing a lockdown:

https://www.dw.com/en/sweden-mulls-u...ons/a-53020024

Sweden is a special case in point - a small population spread over a huge country,and 40% single person households,which means they already have a degree of self isolation at a societal level. This is why they had relaxed measures.

This is happening to the whole planet,and it affects you,me and everyone else. We are all affected both socially and economically.

The thing is some of you need to understand this,all governments are enacting these stricter measures - in the end if you are not happy go on social media and callout global governments. Unless you suddenly are saying all governments worldwide (left,right,centrist,conservative,liberal) are all wrong and need to reverse what they are doing?? People need to appreciate what is happening and governments are not taking these measures lightly.

PS:

I would also say this - if governments didn't enact strict enough measures,everyone would also be moaning when their loved ones get very sick or worse, and the healthcare system gets overloaded.

If they try to enact stricter measures to minimise deaths,etc then people moan that is also wrong.

Ultimately what will happen,will happen - governments will make the call and we will have to deal with it as best we can.

[TeePee]

They have to reduce restrictions, and soon. The full scale of the economic damage is unknown, at this point. Given the last few years of economic boom, there's some cushion there, but there are already people who can't pay rent. Another month, and we could start seeing people going hungry. People aren't going to stay home, at that point.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

They have to reduce restrictions, and soon. The full scale of the economic damage is unknown, at this point. Given the last few years of economic boom, there's some cushion there, but there are already people who can't pay rent. Another month, and we could start seeing people going hungry. People aren't going to stay home, at that point.

You are acting like these are permanent restrictions - I told you repeated they will be relaxed,but not for a few weeks.

The peak is predicted in a week for both the US and UK,so probably the next few weeks.In the UK people are having their pay covered,and it seems both Japan and Sweden are introducing powers to start locking down their countries. So countries worldwide for the immediate future are in fact going the opposite way to what you are saying.

The fact,is sadly people are not taking the existing measures seriously enough:
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/05/thous...ther-12510443/

This means the government might mull a stronger lockdown:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ghter-lockdown

Cases are dipping slightly this weekend which is a good sign,but we will need to wait and see.

U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock on Sunday criticized what he described as a “minority” of Britons who are ignoring social-distancing rules to sunbathe or gather in parks. He said the government would not hesitate to ban all outdoor exercise if current rules prove insufficient to reduce the infection rate.

If the infection rates start increasing again due to people flouting the rules enforced,the lockdown will get stricter and last longer.

The fact is people were not taking earlier measures seriously. Not social distancing properly,not covering their mouths properly,etc. Countries are scrambling to buy time to increase the capacity of their healthcare systems too. If our government had been quicker to react to offers of equipment,etc the lockdown could be relaxed quicker as we would have enough medical capacity.

Every government is moving towards similar measures,so again whether people like it now,we are all headed the same way for the immediate future,whether we want to or not.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

With everyone rushing to design low-cost ventilators now, it's important to remember that these are medical devices that need to perform very delicate functions. It's very easy to do more harm than good when you're relying on good intentions as opposed to subject matter expertise. For some context, see this video

As I pointed out earlier some of these new designs we were trying to buy,will take weeks to get upto production at the very least,as they need to be tested properly.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...le-coronavirus

Companies likely to build ‘nowhere near’ enough extra machines in time for UK peak of coronavirus cases, sources reveal

The NHS already has 8,175 ventilators but the government believes up to 30,000 could be needed and has enlisted manufacturers in a wartime-style effort to boost stocks to to at least 61,000. Officials are working on deals to increase that number and are expected to announce new orders for hundreds more machines in the coming days.

But the health secretary, Matt Hancock, said on Friday he could not dispute modelling suggesting that the peak for Covid-19 deaths could arrive on 12 April, Easter Sunday.

And sources involved in projects to import or build ventilators told the Guardian that ventilator production was highly unlikely to be in full swing before the end of the month, despite unprecedented collaboration within British industry.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-matt-hancock/

Ventilator target will not be hit by expected peak, admits Matt Hancock

The Health Secretary said the virus is expected to peak within 10 days but said the ventilator capacity will likely be below 18,000

"The answer is that our goal, instead of the 30,000, is that we need 18,000 ventilators over the coming two weeks."

Asked how many there will be in a week's time, he said: "There should be another 1,500."

Also regarding the total number of ventilators in the NHS,I said it was between 8000~9000,now we are at 10000 which is better news.

But it looks like we will be at ~12000 ventilators at the peak. Hopefully we will have more.

Looking at the news the lockdown isn't going to go away in the next week or two IMHO.

[DK2019]

[DK2019]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...scientists-say

"The huge stock of 17.5m antibody home testing kits ordered by the government after Boris Johnson said they could be a “game changer” could in fact be unreliable, scientists have said, saying that they may fail to detect up to half of coronavirus cases."

[Galant]

I think part of the concern about the restrictions being relaxed or not is, at least in part, how they're being communicated. That is, if the goal is reducing deaths, and if the only tool in the belt (at the moment) is restrictions then does that mean the restrictions go on indefinitely? If not, then what will change? Either the deaths will still come and the peak reached, or else the ability to actually lessen the impact of disease will be found - via treatment, if not something better.

The talk about this, so far, is about flattening the curve, reducing the peak, to avoid deaths and overload, but very little is said about how that will work, or for how long - perhaps because not much is known. It's been stated by some scientists that isolation can only delay the peak, not get rid of it. It's a move to buy time. Now, I think, would be a good time to have a conversation about how that time is being used, and for how long. Not because anyone is being callous about the potential loss of life. But because perhaps a discussion needs to be had about what happens if no effective treatment is soon found. Do the blanket restrictions continue or do they find a different way of managing things to protect the most lives possible while also mitigating the also real problem of people not being able to work and pay bills.

It's a real question and a real concern and it would be good to start hearing that conversation so everyone can at least be singing from the same sheet, so to speak.

[plepeini]

Stay at home. Stay safe.

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Problem is I can appreciate the lockdown can't last for ever too. Its probably why I am frankly vexed at the missed chances,and all the people ignoring social distancing rules,etc. Because the two latter things alone will increase the length of the lockdown and the government has stated this and that is the reality of it. But also at the same time,even if restrictions are removed in a few weeks,people might need to prepare themselves for restrictions being reimposed if there are more outbreaks.

Also morever,we are all in the same boat,and we have no real power over what will be enacted,so in some ways argueing with each other won't really change anything in the longrun. You need to communicate with your local MP,regarding this.

[kalniel]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586

So, either it can jump species or someone messed up their lab results.

Well we knew that - where do you think it came from?

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21O17F

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany has drawn up a list of measures, including an obligation to wear masks in public, limits on public gatherings and the rapid tracing of infection chains, that officials think should allow life to return to normal after lockdown’s scheduled end on April 19.

The proposals, contained in a draft action plan compilied by the Interior Ministry document and seen by Reuters on Monday, say the measures should be sufficient to keep the number of people infected by each person below 1 even as public life is allowed gradually to resume.

For this to be possible, mechanisms will have to be in place to track more than 80% of people an infected person had contact with within 24 hours of diagnosis. In return, schools will be able to reopen on a regional basis and strict border controls will be relaxed, the paper said.

So Germany is thinking of reducing restrictions in two weeks,but unlike us they have more testing capacity and more ventilator capacity. Once we actually can sort out testing,get more ventilators delivered,etc we will probably follow suite after this. So probably a few weeks as I said before!

[str_]

Well we knew that - where do you think it came from?

It's fine, as long as you keep maintaining social distancing from tigers!