Coronavirus

[TeePee]

40k so far (20k is hospitals only) but i get your point, but the lockdown although late was worth the pain it caused. Lifting it too soon and you risk edging towards that figure.

The curve is artificial. It's manipulated by us. once it's not manipulated by us, and it's dictated by the virus more people lose their lives. It's that simple.

And it's deaths with, not necessarily from, the virus, but either way, the number is very small compared to the deaths we'll see from the economic decline. The whole point was to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, and from running out of vents. 'Flattening the curve' was about lengthening the outbreak, preventing a sudden spike.

But we know now that that was never actually a possibility. From the antibody testing around the world, the virus isn't nearly deadly enough to cause that many deaths, and the results in Sweden show the affects of a lockdown on flattening the curve are negligible at best.

Time to admit the mistake, and give people the choice to get back to life, in order to save lives.

[j1979]

And it's deaths with, not necessarily from, the virus, but either way, the number is very small compared to the deaths we'll see from the economic decline. The whole point was to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, and from running out of vents. 'Flattening the curve' was about lengthening the outbreak, preventing a sudden spike.

But we know now that that was never actually a possibility. From the antibody testing around the world, the virus isn't nearly deadly enough to cause that many deaths, and the results in Sweden show the affects of a lockdown on flattening the curve are negligible at best.

Time to admit the mistake, and give people the choice to get back to life, in order to save lives.

Nothing wrong with looking at easing the lockdown, if done in the right way, where I disagree is that you think it solved nothing. Most people agree south korea, was the way to go, but that chance was squandered from the start. Your post suggests that you think we already reached herd immunity. Seen as 3 out of 4 susspected and tested cases are negative, it's virtually impossible.

It's like you're desperate to try and not be wrong about your opening post in the thread.

As stated before it's quite clear, that those countries that locked down soonest, followed a different trajectory.

[TeePee]

Nothing wrong with looking at easing the lockdown, if done in the right way, where I disagree is that you think it solved nothing. Most people agree south korea, was the way to go, but that chance was squandered from the start. Your post suggests that you think we already reached herd immunity. Seen as 3 out of 4 susspected and tested cases are negative, it's virtually impossible.

It's like you're desperate to try and not be wrong about your opening post in the thread.

As stated before it's quite clear, that those countries that locked down soonest, followed a different trajectory.

South Korea and China didn't lock down their entire countries. South Korea's success so far was due to aggressive tracking and tracing of suspected cases.

We're a long way from herd immunity, but with the virus not being as deadly as many people believed, immunity is certainly having an affect. By locking down everyone, we're prolonging the spread, increasing the risk to the vulnerable. Meanwhile the economic damage is huge. Estimates are that reopening now would lead to a cost of about GBP260Bn. That's GBP8700 for every worker in February, although with 20% unemployment, your contribution will increase. You can either pay that, or they can take pay raises away from Government workers for another ten years to cover your contribution. This is the future this lockdown has charted for the UK.

Of course, that's starting with a great economy, and with the Government furlough scheme that has potential to save a lot of jobs. Other countries are not so fortunate. There are already people without food in Italy.

[j1979]

South Korea and China didn't lock down their entire countries. South Korea's success so far was due to aggressive tracking and tracing of suspected cases.

We're a long way from herd immunity, but with the virus not being as deadly as many people believed, immunity is certainly having an affect. By locking down everyone, we're prolonging the spread, increasing the risk to the vulnerable. Meanwhile the economic damage is huge. Estimates are that reopening now would lead to a cost of about GBP260Bn. That's GBP8700 for every worker in February, although with 20% unemployment, your contribution will increase. You can either pay that, or they can take pay raises away from Government workers for another ten years to cover your contribution. This is the future this lockdown has charted for the UK.

Of course, that's starting with a great economy, and with the Government furlough scheme that has potential to save a lot of jobs. Other countries are not so fortunate. There are already people without food in Italy.

Like i said we missed the boat on the South Korea model.. 60 million in wuhan, the most draconian lockdown and locked in, other areas with a population of 233 million locked down. Other provinces were in "closed management".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns

Shanghai
Beiging

My friend was locked down for over 2 months in Fujian province, only allowed out every other day to go to the supermarket only.

Just because your BBC tory propaganda source only mentioned Hubei, doesn't mean it didn't happen. The whole country was at a standstill.

As you know yourself , with the following post.

China is already back at work. The volume of freight piled up and ready to move is simply amazing...

But if you would like to show me an area of china that had no restrictions, im listening.

How do you suppose they stopped the spread? with disinfectant injections?

[TeePee]

Do you actually think they stopped the spread?

But more importantly, what do you think happens if we don't stop this lock down soon? How many more people will die from the economic collapse?

[cingur]

Hope this calamity is soon passed

[j1979]

Do you actually think they stopped the spread?

But more importantly, what do you think happens if we don't stop this lock down soon? How many more people will die from the economic collapse?

When it comes to economic collapse you don't want to know what I think. It's a long story but the short version is I have long thought the ecconomic collaplse was well on the way before coronavirus even appeared.

As it happens I don't belive they stopped the spread, and I also think they have covered up a lot more deaths.

I don't disagree with you that the lockdown needs to end. It does. but how, and when?

Just open everyting? or open everything with enforced social distancing.

Whats your plan? how would you do it if you were in charge?

[TeePee]

When it comes to economic collapse you don't want to know what I think. It's a long story but the short version is I have long thought the ecconomic collaplse was well on the way before coronavirus even appeared.

As it happens I don't belive they stopped the spread, and I also think they have covered up a lot more deaths.

I don't disagree with you that the lockdown needs to end. It does. but how, and when?

Just open everyting? or open everything with enforced social distancing.

Whats your plan? how would you do it if you were in charge?

I think I've already mentioned. Allow people to do as they wish. Encourage social distancing, but don't enforce it. Support people who choose to self-isolate, in particular the vulnerable, to ensure they have home delivery of necessities, etc. Encourage people to seek medical help when needed. More testing, and tracking of contacts.

The important part is to get businesses operating again as quickly as possible. Anything which can be done to mitigate the economic damage and resulting deaths.

[j1979]

This is song is braodcast on the towns public address every night at 8pm in Barcelona province towns, along with the clapping.

[Jonj1611]

Seems most countries have a plan including Scotland apart from us : https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...4-may-11978698

[DK2019]

Imagine if any of this happened under a labour government. All the hardcore tory voters would be up in arms and suddenly start backing the scientific option.

[DK2019]

[matts-uk]

I think I've already mentioned. Allow people to do as they wish. Encourage social distancing, but don't enforce it. Support people who choose to self-isolate, in particular the vulnerable, to ensure they have home delivery of necessities, etc. Encourage people to seek medical help when needed. More testing, and tracking of contacts.

The likely outcome (inevitable really) is significantly increased footfall in the urban commercial centres; London, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield etc. The virus re-emerges, gains traction and spreads out from the cities AGAIN.

We would be foolish to release the lock down while we do not have the ability to test, track and trace. We do not have the test capacity because the UK Gov chose to avoid carrying the dead cost of a stock pile and the risk of having to write it off unused. They chose to save money on public spending by foregoing the public health insurance policy. The UK Gov took a 2:1 gamble and lost. We reap what we sew.

The important part is to get businesses operating again as quickly as possible. Anything which can be done to mitigate the economic damage and resulting deaths.

Disagree. The important part is to keep the virus in check and avoid it re-emerging to wreck havoc on public health again. If the virus gets out and goes into unchecked growth the public services haemorrhage cash and there is the additional economic hit of getting back in control.

I guess we could brick up the major cities, close the motorways, arrest anyone trying to escape, start welding doors shut. Then allow the rural communities to go back to work. A strategy to minimise the economic damage and keep the virus in check. Does that work for you? It would work for my business but not for my morals I'm afraid.

One thing we can say about the deaths is they are real physical people. Those underpaid NHS workers and care workers that have died decades too early. No amount of economic activity is going to restore their lives or the loss suffered by their families. It is very inconvenient for the economists as they can't easily put a cash value on the spreadsheet to offset the account.

The value of currency however is a matter of belief. A sizable proportion of the 'collapse' will be writing down of assets - nothing physically changes, only the things people own are believed to be worth less. A notable proportion of GDP comes from investment property in London owned by overseas interests, that is very likely to fall significantly. A lot of what happens will be decided in corporate boardrooms. More gambling with an unpredictable result.

The bottom of the population have little left to lose and they may even see some improvement. The more people who end up at the bottom the more likely the Gov will do something to improve life for them. It will be a brave UK Gov who fail to hounor furlough commitments and allow people to starve in their homes.

What has to be spent will be carried as debt going forward, as it was after WWII. Maybe we can sell an aircraft carrier to France and cancel HS2 to reign in the debt a bit. Too late to cancel Trident? I really don't know. Every year debts are written down and written off. For instance, in 1990 the UK wrote off whatever war reparations Germany still owed us to help out West German tax payers carrying the burden of reunification. Exactly what Germany owed us was never really known anyway. So. One way to reduce the economic impact is for G7 nations to write off an equal amount of debt.

[DK2019]

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/po...NvMuHAZlAKF9zo

"Coronavirus ‘currently eliminated’ in New Zealand
The country has managed to avoid the worst-case scenario, the PM said."

Guess how they did it? Herd immunity? Hell no. They tested everyone they could, they quarantined and closed down the airports and generally did the common sense approach ie listening to the experts.

[DK2019]

Did anyone watch the bbc panorama episode? Its worth a watch and is pretty damning of the tory response to all of this.

[j1979]

Did anyone watch the bbc panorama episode? Its worth a watch and is pretty damning of the tory response to all of this.

I didn't see it. But did they make any connection to not taking care home residents to intensive care so they can subdue the number of daily death totals?