Unless we're closing down everything in the hope of a vaccine, we're all going down the herd immunity route. It's about balancing the economic damage versus increased deaths from overwhelming the health services. It turns out, the US got that massively wrong, and will be paying for it for a generation. It remains to be seen how bad things will get in the UK.
I have no proof, just have searched all my life for the reason that there is no family history, but yet me and my sibling have the same condition moderate to severe. Her children don't have the condition didn't have the vaccine. Same with our parents. Im not saying it is the vaccine but it's the only link I can find. And as siblings follow phenotype vs genotype ratios it points to something external not genitic.Originally Posted by ik9000
The specialist i see every 6 months is very clear that no links have been proven whatsoever but he also says no real studies have been done. He also says that there is no link to anything that is proven for the condition. So i don't have any proof whatsoever, and I doubt I ever will. If I was to be told that Alcohol has been proven to cause my condition, I could just cut it out and see the results but with a vaccine that has changed my immune system forever, it's not possible to test that theroy. I suppose I could clone myself a couple of times and run a double blind experiment.
I guess i see vaccines as a double edged sword. There have been many drugs, and cures over history that have cased more harm then good. And that in the same way anti-biotics have been misused, is it possible vaccines can cause evolution in viruses. I don't know engough on it and im just thinking out load really. I was interested in other peoples views. Let me be clear though vaccines and anti-biotics are very important breakthroughs.
At the moment if an antibody test is available and I have had Corornavirus, then it will hopefully mean I won't need to make any decisions. Im suspicious of big pharm but also marvel at the genius of modern medicine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52361519
This will take years to calculate guys
People who CAN'T go to hospital for regular stuff will die because of corona virus ockdown, and not OF corona virus itself.
[GSV]Trig (21-04-2020)
Well my operation has been put back, they said in a letter a significant wait. Great, I don't need an operation for the fun of it and while its not life threatening is damn uncomfortable.
Jon
I have loved ones in a similar boat. Had been due to have op early April. Going through the painkillers at some rate I can tell you!
I can imagine. The health minister says the NHS is open for business. No its not.
Jon
Can't speak nationally but where I work it is. We're still cancelling non-urgent ops despite having the theatres, the surgeons and the PPE though, because you're very immuno-compromised afterwards and so the risk of you having the op and being in hospital is greater than the risk of you suffering for a month or two longer at home.
YMMV obviously.
CAT-THE-FIFTH (21-04-2020)
My apologies J1979. I re-read my post and while I included all the information, I did not state my argument clearly. (A demonstration of critical thinking. I did not presume I was right, I considered how I might be wrong.)
The crux of the argument is "at work" Vs "community use." I do not doubt the efficacy of masks when used "at work." Cat posted some of the proof and there is plenty of it available. What I doubt is "at work" is the same thing as "community use." The implications of "at work" may not be transferable to a community setting. As I understand it, a peer reviewed research paper with accompanied randomised testing is the evidence the medical profession demands to dispel such doubts. I further understand the medical profession adheres to a code of ethics that is encapsulated by the words, "Do no harm." To avoid an ethical conflict it is not sufficient to prove that some measure works, it must also do no harm.
The difference between hypothesis and accepted fact is proof. The majority of hypothesis turns out to be wrong, as far as I know. Testing is really important to avoid poor hypothesis creating unintended consequences.
No. The education must be used appropriately. I mentioned I was involved in the development of scuba diving electronics. I'm going to use it as an example, because it is familiar to me and the parallel is a close one. Indulge me a little if you will.if PPE doesn't work why do health care workers wear them? If you are educated on the correct use and uses of a mask they are effective. Im supposed to believe you that they offer some protection to healthcare workers, but if someone from the community wears them they are ineffective.
A common scuba diving instrument is a decompression meter. A small wrist computer that tracks Nitrogen and Helium uptake and elimination to help avoid getting, "the bends." We teach people the risk factors. They must be well hydrated, they should avoid over-working underwater, they should avoid alcohol and should be rested. Only then do we teach them how to use the computer. They strap on their shiny new device and off they go and the majority are very sensible. A significant minority however treat their computer as, "a magic amulet." They studiously follow what the computer tells them, they obsess over the numbers, and those are the people who get bent. I have heard a great many times the words, "But the computer said it was safe to ascend." True, but they were in the pub until 1.00am, skipped breakfast, drank nothing but coffee all morning and now they can not walk. If we can get them on a helicopter fast enough they will probably get away with minor nerve damage, but they are only on the chopper because they did not do all the other things they needed to do for their diving computer to be effective.
There is a similar situation with healthcare workers wearing PPE. The masks are effective when all the other infection controls are being followed. When you take away the infection controls and leave the masks, the masks become a source of cross contamination that can be decidedly more dangerous than the disorder being treated. Health care workers "at work" operate within an enforceable health and safety culture regulated by the HSE (who have very sharp teeth). I do not believe we can assume masks used in the community, outside of the HSE remit, will achieve the same result. You have seen the number of one shot gloves littering the street discarded by the few in the community still moving around?
What defies logic is substituting the definite for the indefinite. Masks in the community MAY not be effective, is about what I said. I did not say they ARE not effective. My point is 'we' don't appear to know. The WHO do not claim to know. Qualified scientists do not claim to know. Sadiq Khan is not a scientist, he is a lawyer and politician (those bastions of truth and honesty).It defies logic.
If you wear a hazmat suit, that was previously worn by an infectious person and was not adequately sterilized, it's probably worse than not wearing one at all. The use criteria is significant.If i wear a hazmat suit, is it less effective because im a community member.
The gif is an illustration of aerosol transmission. Cat already posted some papers about that.In the gif below, if the person that sneezes or coughs, had a surgical mask and the other person has an n95 or n99, the risk would be reduced.
Social distancing, covering your mouth when coughing, washing hands in soap and water, isolation as far as possible. Those measures are not surrounded by controversy. Those measures are proven to work. Those are all the other things we have all been educated to do. It seems to me those in the community who use the education appropriately gain little or no benefit from the cost and complication of being made to wear a mask. It seems to me that masks are a comfort blanket for those who can not accept the education they have been given. We are back to magic amulets.If the aim is to get the virus R0 below 1, it's an obvious tool in our arsenal to fight the virus, and used correctly with other tools like hand washing, distancing and isolation it works.
We live in a free country. If you choose to wear a mask there is no law to stop you. My choice is to see some proof before hand. If it was clear cut I am sure a few Doctors and scientists would be lining up to tell me - They are not. It is politicians, business leaders, newspapers who are shouting hysterically.
You misunderstand. Demographic evidence is legitimate evidence none the less. People in London are much more susceptible is a mathematical fact. It is also a fact that some 90 years olds are less susceptible than some 20 year olds. So on and so forth. It is the picking on groups you don't happen to like that is criminal.the BBC article, about ethnic background does not have any evidence based on race, like i said 0 evidence. It mentions greater risk due to environmental factors, like densely populated areas, greater exposure, intergenerational households, and health issues like being overweight, diabetes and HBP. Thankfully not many people left that still call HIV the gay virus, lets not start suggesting covid-19 is linked to any group unless there is firm evidence. Males, smokers & the old maybe
Discriminating against the protected attributes is the crime - you can end up in court if you do it. A democratic ethical choice, rather than anything scientific. Personally I think it is an extremely important principle that helps remind the scientific community of the slippery slope some scientists built in the 1930s, starting with eugenics and ending in mass murder on an industrial scale.
What's that?...It will be different this time...
j1979 (22-04-2020)
I understand the risk and obviously will wait for the op rather than go in but to say "open for business" is not exactly true is it with operations being cancelled all over the place. I have scans yearly, important scans, all been put off.
Wish it had been a "month or two" at home, this is now month 6, was due to have an op in March, will be a much longer wait now and I am burning through painkillers like no tomorrow, if I get an addiction I am suing lol
Jon
I am having minor surgery done privately. My previous employer kindly forgot to cancel my health insurance.
The surgeon was jovial last month saying they are running as normal but now it has been postponed.
Another day,another lost e-mail:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...yside-52358036
A businessman has been left angry after his offer of 450 visors a day to the NHS has apparently been ignored.
Paul Dodd says he has spent £8,000 on materials and wages for the work but after four weeks has been forced to stop.
Mr Dodd, owner of Weaver Dane and Trade in Cheshire, said: "I knew there was a risk buying materials but I thought I was doing the right thing by helping."
The Cabinet Office has been asked for a response by the BBC.
The government says it is working "around the clock" to provide PPE, but NHS workers are concerned about supplies, and have been asked to consider reusing some equipment.
Mr Dodd said he had already donated 2,300 visors to local hospitals as part of a separate crowdfunding project, and had a further 1,300 visors stockpiled and ready to go.
He employs nine people and said he had sourced the necessary materials for the work before they sold out.
Well in the case of people I actually know who do have hospital appointments delayed for later dates,the hospital has literally rung up and said,they are limiting things as they don't want more people being infected with coronavirus by actually going to the hospitals,which are now rammed full with coronavirus patients.
Our local hospital is overcrowded as even though it is in the Southeast it serves as an overflow for London too,so they are transferring patients from there. You should see it during normal flu season,etc its always crowded. If you are young you are down prioritised over older folk.
This is because Labour in their great wisdom replaced two older hospitals with more beds,with a single hospital with less beds. It lacks enough capacity.
The same with our hospital.
Last edited by CAT-THE-FIFTH; 21-04-2020 at 02:49 PM.
Testing and isolating worked in new Zealand and is working in Germany etc. Thats the scientific advice. Herd immunity will kill absurd amounts of people. Also a significant number of people globally are getting corona again a second time.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...Vrj?li=BBoPRmx
"Britain only made a formal request to Turkey over a consignment of personal protective equipment on Sunday - the day after a cabinet minister announced the "very significant additional shipment" was already heading to the UK, Turkish sources have told Sky News.
Robert Jenrick, the housing secretary, said at the daily Downing Street press briefing on Saturday that 84 tonnes of the gear, including 400,000 urgently needed clinical gowns, would arrive in the UK from Turkey the following day.
It failed to materialise, but no explanation for the delay was given.
In fact two sources have told Sky News that no formal request was made to the Turkish authorities - who were not supplying the shipment, but whose help was required to get it to the UK - until Sunday."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...s-ons-11976357
"Coronavirus deaths 41% higher than government's hospital-only figures - ONS
The latest ONS figures show the total number of care home deaths have increased almost five-fold in seven days."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52374653
The government is "throwing everything" at developing a coronavirus vaccine, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.
He told the daily Downing Street briefing that human trials for a vaccine, developed by the University of Oxford, would begin on Thursday.
He also addressed the shortage of protective gear for the NHS, saying the government was talking to thousands of suppliers but not all could deliver.
It comes as the UK recorded another 823 coronavirus deaths in UK hospitals.
That takes the total number to 17,337.
Official figures show deaths hit a 20-year-high in England and Wales in the week up to 10 April - nearly double what would have been expected - driven by 6,200 fatalities attributed to coronavirus.
These figures cover all settings, including care homes and deaths in the community as well as hospitals.
Mr Hancock told the No 10 briefing that "the best way to defeat coronavirus" was through a vaccine.
The process was "trial and error", he said, but the UK was at the "front of the global effort" and had invested more money than any other country.
He said two leading vaccine developments at UK universities - Imperial College London and the University of Oxford - would receive a total of £42.5m to support their clinical trials.
"Both of these promising projects are making rapid progress and I've told the scientists leading them we will do everything in our power to support."
He added: "After all, the upside of being the first country in the world to develop a successful vaccine is so huge that I am throwing everything at it."
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