Coronavirus

[Jonj1611]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...e_iOSApp_Other


"For millions, lockdown is not novels and quality family time but food parcels and hardship"

I actually agree with that story

[DK2019]

https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/stat...42028837724166

"A tenth of the world's #coronavirus deaths have been in the UK & people are still trying to defend our Govt's strategy to combat it?
It's been a catastrophically complacent shambles from start to finish."

It seems like piers has turned a leaf....

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Ive pretty much given up on this thread. Im leaving you to it. I cant speak fopr the rest of the admin team, but I suspect they are equally sick of it.

People are just going in circular arguments now,just best to rest up and look after your health now. Also for spreadie,sorry to hear what happened too!

[TeePee]

Another model update.

717 fatalities today was less than half the predicted from the previous model. They've updated the model for the second time in less than a week, reducing the prediction for total fatalities from 37k down to 23k. That's huge. Fourteen Thousand people who will not be included in the death statistics for this virus. And it means the predictions for the total deaths have reduced from 60,000 in the original model down to basically a third of that. It also reduces the expected required number of vents to fewer than 8000. That original model was already based on assuming social distancing and every possible attempt to mitigate the virus. If may be, that shutting down the country was a lot more effective than planned, or that the predictions were wrong, or a bit of both. Either way, that's a lot more people alive than expected, and a hopeful sign.

[DK2019]

https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/stat...45138535100417

" This was the most undignified & pathetic display I have ever seen from any world leader, let alone the President of the United States – in the middle of a global crisis. "

Piers morgan on trumps corona press conference. This guy has really turned around.

[DK2019]

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1250091796522246146

"According to research by Deep Knowledge Group (DKG), a Hong Kong venture capital group specialising in medicines, Germany is the second safest country in the world during Covid-19 pandemic, with Israel in the top spot. Britain is not in the Top 40 safest."

[DK2019]

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/sta...96021612875776

"Good call from Trump. The WHO is pro-China and not a neutral organisation. Shame our government continues to pour in money

[j1979]

Another model update.

717 fatalities today was less than half the predicted from the previous model. They've updated the model for the second time in less than a week, reducing the prediction for total fatalities from 37k down to 23k. That's huge. Fourteen Thousand people who will not be included in the death statistics for this virus. And it means the predictions for the total deaths have reduced from 60,000 in the original model down to basically a third of that. It also reduces the expected required number of vents to fewer than 8000. That original model was already based on assuming social distancing and every possible attempt to mitigate the virus. If may be, that shutting down the country was a lot more effective than planned, or that the predictions were wrong, or a bit of both. Either way, that's a lot more people alive than expected, and a hopeful sign.

Arr yes Warren Buffetts figures again. I don't think he would have reason to want to calm or scare the markets with flutuating death figures, while the hedge funds maneuver.

[TeePee]

Another model update.

717 fatalities today was less than half the predicted from the previous model. They've updated the model for the second time in less than a week, reducing the prediction for total fatalities from 37k down to 23k. That's huge. Fourteen Thousand people who will not be included in the death statistics for this virus. And it means the predictions for the total deaths have reduced from 60,000 in the original model down to basically a third of that. It also reduces the expected required number of vents to fewer than 8000. That original model was already based on assuming social distancing and every possible attempt to mitigate the virus. If may be, that shutting down the country was a lot more effective than planned, or that the predictions were wrong, or a bit of both. Either way, that's a lot more people alive than expected, and a hopeful sign.

Two more days of figures, both remaining hundreds below the predictions. It seems like we've reached a plateau, hopefully before the numbers head downward. I expect the model to be revised downward within the next few days.

[davidbeell8819]

Anyone have a sniffle?

To me, the panic seems a little disproportionate. Indications are it's a cold. Generally unpleasant, but if you aren't 60+ without an immune system, you should be fine. Regular Influenza is probably worse (get your Flu shot!).

Fwiw, I was in China last month. Not scared.

Nice but be careful. Even cyber-goons are taking advantage of the pandemic and sending phishing emails, ringing phone calls pretending o be government officials, and coronavirus interactive maps.

[davidbeell8819]

I too kind of

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

UK figures are expected to plateau over the next two to three weeks according to the government:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21V1PR

Lockdown expected to last for another three weeks:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52304914

NI already extended it for 3 more weeks.

Social distancing expected to last for a while until a vaccine is found:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52308201

Angela Merkel explaining why they needed to flatten the curve:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFN0shTAW5s



Explains what kind of infection rates they are trying to aim for,and how flattening the curve now,will enable them to start loosening restrictions. Even a tiny increase in infection rates,can lead to the German healthcare system being overloaded in 4~6 weeks time,or 7 months time.,which is why Germany got on top of things quicker than most countries in Europe.

[TeePee]

Social distancing forever is fine by me. But the economic lockdown has to end. Too many people out of work and in hardship. Three more weeks might not be possible in the US with the protests already beginning. The UK is faring a little better, despite a much stricter lockdown, thanks to better Government. 'Furlough' is a term we're hearing a lot, but it means something very different in the UK compared to the US. In the UK, the government is guaranteeing 80% of your pay while furloughed. In the US, it's unemployment, with a hope that the company will survive long enough to rehire you.

[Jonj1611]

This was interesting :

World Health Organisation: We cannot wait for vaccine before lifting lockdown

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said the world “can’t wait” for a Covid-19 vaccine to become available before lifting lockdown measures.

Catherine Smallwood, senior emergency officer at WHO Europe, warned that such immunisation is at least 18 months away.

And she dismissed suggestions from health minister Nadine Dorries that the UK needs a vaccine before it can “exit full lockdown”.

During a briefing on Thursday, Ms Smallwood said: “The WHO is not saying we need to wait for a vaccine.

“We don’t know when a vaccine will be available for use in our populations and what we don’t want to do is take action now based on the situation now.

“We need to think of ourselves in a position of a new normal until such a time that a vaccine might become available to us.”

She added that more than 70 coronavirus vaccines are currently being developed, but that it is likely to be at least 18 months before one is available.

She added: “We are aware that in reality it normally takes several years for a vaccine to become available, but we can’t predict when a vaccine will become available and we can’t wait for that.”

The UK’s current lockdown measures are expected to be extended on Thursday evening.


Meanwhile the first new ventilators have been approved with the government saying :

The government has promised it will shield manufacturers of new ventilators from the cost of potential legal claims over intellectual property infringements, or personal injury caused by defective machines, according to a report in the Financial Times on Thursday.

Erm

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Well if the US and even the UK had acted earlier,and heeded warnings,I expect the lockdown might have been ending soon. Germany took things more seriously and also properly invested in testing and ICU capacity,as they actually heeded some of the warnings virologists had given governments. Now they are in a better situation to try and relax stuff a bit earlier.

In the case of the US they have such a huge defence budget,this is not even a case of lacking money,but not targetting areas properly. But after reading how some of the US infrastructure is lacking,I really don't understand the priorities of several US governments. Even in our case governments of the last 20 years have wasted so much money(tens of billions of pounds) and so many lives farting around in the rest of the world IMHO,and not even achieving much either.

[j1979]

This was interesting :

World Health Organisation: We cannot wait for vaccine before lifting lockdown

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said the world “can’t wait” for a Covid-19 vaccine to become available before lifting lockdown measures.

Catherine Smallwood, senior emergency officer at WHO Europe, warned that such immunisation is at least 18 months away.

And she dismissed suggestions from health minister Nadine Dorries that the UK needs a vaccine before it can “exit full lockdown”.

During a briefing on Thursday, Ms Smallwood said: “The WHO is not saying we need to wait for a vaccine.

“We don’t know when a vaccine will be available for use in our populations and what we don’t want to do is take action now based on the situation now.

“We need to think of ourselves in a position of a new normal until such a time that a vaccine might become available to us.”

She added that more than 70 coronavirus vaccines are currently being developed, but that it is likely to be at least 18 months before one is available.

She added: “We are aware that in reality it normally takes several years for a vaccine to become available, but we can’t predict when a vaccine will become available and we can’t wait for that.”

The UK’s current lockdown measures are expected to be extended on Thursday evening.


Meanwhile the first new ventilators have been approved with the government saying :

The government has promised it will shield manufacturers of new ventilators from the cost of potential legal claims over intellectual property infringements, or personal injury caused by defective machines, according to a report in the Financial Times on Thursday.

Erm

Most reasonable responses are to continue a lockdown until numbers are low enough, to mimick S.Korea.

However having been told for 3 months masks do nothing, it's going to be dificult for the UK to ask all people to wear surgical masks which limit the spead to others if you're a carrier of the virus.

I guess we will have to see what happens in Spain that has lifted lockdown for some factory and construction workers, and also made masks manditiory on public transport, and in the work place.

looks like it could be the worst weekend in the UK if we are following the same pattern as Italy. Both Italy and Spain have seen the highest losses about a week after the highest confirmed cases, and it looks like our highest might have been on April 10th.

after lockdown has ended, it's only a matter of time until lockdown x2 and maybe x3 if we aren't contact tracing and testing everyone. Possibly just locking down certian age groups, but the response has been shambolic in general, so I fully expect the future to be just as shambolic.