Brexit New Deal/Legal Changes - Risk Still Remains

[Saracen999]

The backstop wasn't put in by the EU, it was put in by Ms T May, PM to HMG.


....

The backstop was an EU proposal, suggesting that NI remained in lockstep with the Cusgoms Union and Single Market. It was initially rejected outright by May because, and if you recall, it "would put a border diwn the Irish sea", and effectively break up the union.

The background to that was that EU had placed (at Varadker's prompting) the "hard border" issue as one of the three critical initial issues which, until dealt with would preventvthe EU even discussing other matters .... like the politically hot matter of cituzen's rights in the other's pist-exit territory whuch May had bern trying to get dealt with since before art.50 was even invoked, only to be met with point-blank refusal from the EU, until their three hot topics were dealt with.

Which is when that EU proposal for the backstop was put forward, and May agreed to the principle.

Then even that blew up when the EU's chief negotiator, Barnier, put forward the text of how his team interpreted that, and that legal text was immediately rejected as it "broke up the union", and the EU dug their heels in and again refused to move on until this was resolved.

At most, May caved in in order to try to move things on, as "the clock was ticking".

I'm on record as being no fan of May. I detest her, and in my view, she personally is the single biggest reason we're in this mess now, not least because she never has agreedcwith Brexit and I have my suspicions about how much of her incompetence is just that, and how much is deliberate, to engineer just juch a mess.

But to say she put the backstop in is tantamount to blaming the bank cashier for putting money in a robber's bag when the robber has a shotgun pointed in her face.

The EU set it up. They made it a priority, refused to move on until it was dealt with and then rejected every other option, including the "alternative arrangements" they are now claiming will avoid a hard border in the "increasingly likely" event of no-deal, like checks done miles behind the border.

[peterb]

The backstop wasn't put in by the EU, it was put in by Ms T May, PM to HMG.

Not strictly true, it was first proposed by the EU (according to this article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe...itics-44615404) although the nature of the backstop was changed by the PM.

[Smudger]

Not strictly true, it was first proposed by the EU (according to this article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe...itics-44615404) although the nature of the backstop was changed by the PM.

Yes, I mis-remembered, the backstop was originally to include just NI, May put in the 'rest of the UK' bit, so as not to put a border down the Irish sea.

And I don't think she's a remainer at all, I think she hedged her bets at the referendum, but she's all for the 'taking back control' of our borders, without actually implementing what was allowed under EU rules to curtail Eu migration, when actually in a position to do something about it.

[peterb]

Yes, I mis-remembered, the backstop was originally to include just NI, May put in the 'rest of the UK' bit, so as not to put a border down the Irish sea.

And I don't think she's a remainer at all, I think she hedged her bets at the referendum, but she's all for the 'taking back control' of our borders, without actually implementing what was allowed under EU rules to curtail Eu migration, when actually in a position to do something about it.

Glad my recollection wasn't out (at least on this! )

[Galant]

It has definitely been said by the EU that the backstop was a UK idea/request. So people will remember that idea because they've actually heard it said and repeated.

I was mulling it over because it made no sense that the EU would be so stubborn over something that wasn't even something they wanted in the first place.

[The Hand]

If there was a seamless functional technological border on the island of Ireland, that could potentially undermine the Euro currency itself, in that countries like Italy might go back to the Lira using the same tech on their borders.. and maybe other struggling Eurozone countries might do the same. That might explain why the EU are so eager to stick to the backstop arrangement with regards to the Irish border.

[Saracen999]

Yes, I mis-remembered, the backstop was originally to include just NI, May put in the 'rest of the UK' bit, so as not to put a border down the Irish sea.

And I don't think she's a remainer at all, I think she hedged her bets at the referendum, but she's all for the 'taking back control' of our borders, without actually implementing what was allowed under EU rules to curtail Eu migration, when actually in a position to do something about it.

She did self-admittedly vote Remain, so to that extent she's a Remainer.

She was, however, elected to lead a party with a "mplement the referendum" pledge and, above and beyond that, needed to get Brexiter MPs on-board, following the Gove/Johnson mutual back-stabbing, and to nudge others out of the way.

Since becoming PM, she's certainly talked a good Brexitrr game,such as the Lancaster House speeches and, of course, "Leave means Leave". I would suggest that that was what was necessary to keep Leaver MPs relatively quiet and acquiescent. And it worked.

But there's an old adage comparing "what I say" with "what I do" and which one we shoukd take note of. To that end, I compare what she said she was going to do, with what she actually did, which was pretty much cave in on all her red lines.

The charitable interpretation is that Barnier and the EU played her like a fisherman plays a big fish caught on a wesk line .... i.e. carefully and gently, giving it just enough tension to wesr it down but nevet enough to break the line. Or to put it another way, she out-played and not competent for the job.

Either way, she conceded to the EU again and again, most notably over the backstop which, to me, is about as acceptable as it is to the DUP.

So, when she appoints not one, but two Breciter Secretary's of State, and then by-passes them and has her own apparachik. Olly Robbins, running things such that those Secretsry'# of State find out what's going on from the media, just like the rest of us, I can do no other than conclude she's no Leaver. If it walks like a duck, quacks and has feathers, etc....

I can't say for certain what her inner motives are, obviously. Nobody can. I can tell you what a number of her own MP colleagues think, and they've been starting to say it more publicly. This is why several has said they'll support her exit deal, provided she goes before the future relationship gets dealt with. Not that most of the damage hasn't already been done, by her, in the exit deal.

[ik9000]

I can do no other than conclude she's no Leaver. If it walks like a duck, quacks and has feathers, etc....

Not being funny but ther more I see her in the news atm I can't help but see an uncanny resemblence to Arsene Wenger. His reign also ended in disappointing disarray and lacklustre results without the backing of the squad behind him.

[Galant]

[Saracen999]

Not being funny but ther more I see her in the news atm I can't help but see an uncanny resemblence to Arsene Wenger. His reign also ended in disappointing disarray and lacklustre results without the backing of the squad behind him.

I'll take your word for that. I know who he is, but you could probably write my entire football knowledge on the pointy end of an extremely sharp pin - with a broad-nibbed Sharpie. I mean, I know it involves a bunch of grossly ovetpaid idiots (yep, so far it matches Parliament) kicking a ball about (well, I suppose that matches kicking a can down the road) while trying to get the better of another bubch of grossly overpaid idiots (yup, check there, too).

So .... sounds about right.

Still, like I say, I know as much sbout foolball as .... well ..... ummmm .... the PM knows about getting a good deal from Brussels

[Corky34]

She did self-admittedly vote Remain, so to that extent she's a Remainer.

True but she didn't earn the nickname submarine May for no reason, IIRC she was the one who sent Cameron back to Brussels after he thought it was a done deal with a load more demands, at least that's what i remember someone saying in that road to Brexit program that came out a few months ago.

[j.o.s.h.1408]

Today was the day we was supposed to leave the eu...

What are leavers thoughts about this?

[Galant]

Today was the day we was supposed to leave the eu...

What are leavers thoughts about this?

This. And this.

Sad to see the state of British government and lack of leadership. This could have been pursued and presented in a few different way, this feels like we took almost the worst path possible.

I still believe that a UK outside of EU governance can be a great success. But if the government and the people don't embrace it, then the whole thing will be scuppered, almost for spite. I hope that more visionary and pragmatic minds can win the day.

[Galant]

[Smudger]

If there was a seamless functional technological border on the island of Ireland, that could potentially undermine the Euro currency itself, in that countries like Italy might go back to the Lira using the same tech on their borders.. and maybe other struggling Eurozone countries might do the same. That might explain why the EU are so eager to stick to the backstop arrangement with regards to the Irish border.

The Euro isn't undermined currently, with there being no border, is it?

The 'Functional technological border' is a big white elephant, there is no technology at the moment, some people with no understanding of customs borders, nor of technology, have shouted 'we'll fix it with technology', hoping that someone does have the tech, but ultimately shoving the responsibility onto other people, for 'not being able to get the tech in place'...

[The Hand]

The Euro isn't undermined currently, with there being no border, is it?

The 'Functional technological border' is a big white elephant, there is no technology at the moment, some people with no understanding of customs borders, nor of technology, have shouted 'we'll fix it with technology', hoping that someone does have the tech, but ultimately shoving the responsibility onto other people, for 'not being able to get the tech in place'...

It was a hypothetical proposition really. *If* there was one then it would possibly undermine the Euro since the Italy could devalue by going back to the Lira and still trade with the Eurozone etc. It's possible that the powers that be at least in the EU, wouldn't want development of such tech since it might undermine the Euro so it doesn't happen and the UK Brexit crowd seem too disorganised to get it done regardless. My point is really if it the tech did exist, it would pose a problem for the need to have the Euro for seamless trade, the Euro being a pre internet era concept etc.