Coronavirus

[DK2019]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...YHsbI59tYwqpWY

"BBC bosses told interviewers to ‘go easy’ on ministers during coronavirus, claims former presenter"

[DK2019]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...xpert-11972083

"Coronavirus: Government 'close to lies' over coronavirus deaths, warns expert
Official counts are not including deaths outside hospitals, such as those in the community or care homes, says ex-health boss."

[TeePee]

Chinese society heading in a worrying direction
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/m/963d75cf...months-of.html

My friend out in China confirms this is happing on a massive scale. Many shops now have "No Blacks" signs.

While he is white british and faces some discrimination, an old school friend / facebook acquaintance of his, who is black british, who is also out teaching English in china has been told to leave the apparment that she rents there... the reason given is that she is "not clean"

He says the situation is spiraling there and not much been done to protect the rights of none Han Chinese.

China has been going in that direction for a long time. The racism there is obvious and extremely unpleasant. It's my least favourite country to spend time in, and the only place I go where I don't go out and explore any more.

[TeePee]

I would say this is exactly as bad as I have been lead to believe. Perhaps the UK hospitals are, according to statistics, just about coping *because* most people are staying at home like they have been told to, and all it would take is enough people shouting their mouth off that things aren't all that bad to get people out of their homes just as things are getting better and kick the whole cycle of death off again.

OFC that assumes that the hospitals are actually coping. From what I'm seeing, they aren't. These are not a simple number of beds resource, doctors and nurses are dying from this so there must be an awful lot of staff who are sick. I don't see how we can let up the lockdown until our hospitals and their staff are recovered and in a better state.

Given that the models cut their predictions so spectacularly, it's hard to still make the worst case claim. Antibody testing is incredibly important to show just how widespread this virus is. That's the largest factor in how much milder this virus is showing to be.

[MrJim]

All very sad to think about. I'm no expert, just thinking out loud. But, i don't believe the NHS would add DNRs without a good deal of thought behind that.

It's not the NHS, it's NICE (National Institute for Health & Care Excellence) that introduced the DNR policy. They did do a full U-turn on it though, after disability groups threatened legal action:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-a9423441.html

"It [the NICE guidelines] included a frailty score that told hospitals to “assess all adults for frailty, irrespective of age and Covid-19 status” using a nine-point frailty scoring system with people “completely dependent for personal care, from whatever cause” scoring seven. Anyone scoring higher than five was said to have uncertainty around the benefits of critical care."

So it's unlikely I would get critical care, given my level of disability.

[matts-uk]

I would suggest that, since you appear to prefer a Chinese style economy, and a Chinese style response to the virus, you look further at the quality of life, health care and life expectancy there. For all the flaws our Western Economy has, I don't think your alternative is as good as you think.

McCarthy is alive and kicking then. Quite a leap you made there, and mildly personally insulting. I don't need an apology but I would like you to explain how you find it acceptable to make such a wild presumption. I take it you regard 'commie' a derogatory label.

You are wide of the mark. I'm more Orwell than Stalin. I may be an idealist but I am definitely not an ideologue. Ideologies are the flippin problem as far as I am concerned. I'm not even a socialist. I am just not an anti-socialist.

I did spend 18 months living and working in Moscow and yes it changed my World view substantially. However, it was shortly after the wall came down and the damage caused by totalitarianism, to the people and the state, was plain to see.

My views on economics are best summed up by economists.

Larry Summers (circa 2016),
“The basic responsibility of government is to maximise the welfare of citizens, not to pursue some abstract concept of the global good”.

Larry was head of the World Bank and an advocate of globalisation, until he retired and changed his mind. During his time at the World Bank Summers had suggested that rich countries should dump toxic waste in poor countries, because it is financially more efficient.

John Maynard Keynes,
“The decadent international but individualistic capitalism, in the hands of which we found ourselves after the war, is not a success. It is not intelligent, it is not beautiful, it is not just, it is not virtuous – and it doesn’t deliver the goods. In short, we dislike it, and we are beginning to despise it.”

Keynes started his career as a NeoLiberal free market advocate. Until he changed his mind, after a few years studying the boom and bust cycles surrounding the World Wars, General Strike and Great Depression. Keynes was the architect of the large state, interventionist, post war economy, adopted by much of the West until 1980. In Britain it delivered the post war consensus, providing 30 years of social stability that wasn't seen before and hasn't been seen since. It took an OPEC manufactured oil crisis to disrupt it, and a fluke of irony to scupper it.

JK Galbraith in 1980,
"Britain has, in effect, volunteered to be the Friedmanite guinea pig. There could be no better choice. Britain's political and social institutions are solid and neither Englishmen, Scots nor even the Welsh take readily to the streets... British phlegm is a good antidote for anger; but so is an adequate system of unemployment insurance."

Galbraith was a bit part Canadian economist. This quote reveals the British public about to get a new economic model rammed down it's throats. He was wrong about the rioting.

Milton Friedman in 2003,
"The use of quantity of money as a target has not been a success. 'I'm not sure I would as of today push it as hard as I once did."

Friedman was the father of the modern free market Western economy. A Nobel prize winner, head of the 'Chicago boys' School of Economics and about the most influential economist of the last 100 years. He was an ideologue and vehemently opposed to Keynes. Here he is, shortly before his death with the Global Financial Crisis looming into view, he admits he got it wrong. This quote is the understatement of the last century and it's almost as if he wanted to say the words without anyone hearing. I am not a fan of Friedman as his mistake left me the wrong side of the bread line for 10 years.

So that is three of the most influential economists of the last 100 years (I don't count Galbraith) all advocating free markets and changing their minds when they see how it pans out. You can add Alan Greenspan (former head of the Fed) to the list too.

The colder Friedman gets in the ground, the longer is the line of economists pointing out how he made stuff up to fit his 'every man for himself' ideology. The economy 'feels' wrong for so many because it is wrong. Forbes put it succinctly in their 2013 headline, The Origin Of 'The World's Dumbest Idea': Milton Friedman

Global economics is a long and tedious path I'm afraid. I found this Guardian article quite a good summary and they have an audio version too. I know, it's the Guardian and long but still a good summary.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...wept-the-world
https://www.theguardian.com/news/aud...-world-podcast

Best not start me on the gig-economy

[TeePee]

You have considered that surviving and thriving are dependant. You must first survive before you can thrive.

You fly for a living don't you? You have been trained to manage a crisis. Aviate, communicate, navigate. When the infection curves turn horizontal, when health care workers stop crying out for PPE and Oxygen, we might have pulled out of the economic nose dive and can assess the situation. Until then the damage that is occurring to populations immediately needs to be minimised.

The scientists do not (yet) know enough about this particular virus for economists to say whether action or inaction would be the more costly path. Whichever path is taken there is a great deal of disruption, a large number of deaths and huge economic shocks. Economically speaking, we are into 'Scottish weather forecasting.' It is not possible to see very far ahead as there are too many inter-dependent variables changing too quickly. Planning is much more of a gamble. Resources may end up being committed towards events that never happen. A double loss as the resource is lost immediately and the future return never materialises.

Economies will adjust in the mid to long term but how they adjust is a political debate that will play out in the aftermath. Social cohesion was a commodity worth little in the West but it suddenly became a lot more valuable.


It very much depends how you want to look at it. I take the view that viral infections attack species and it is a battle of magnitudes. What happens in real life is a magnification of what happens under the microscope. I am aware some people find the concept difficult to swallow. So yes, you can point to an outlier who is able to live entirely self-sufficiently off grid but they are so few and far between, they are insignificant amongst the species. In evolutionary terms it is not so long ago that leaving the tribe was frankly suicidal. The vast majority of us do need to go to the shops, queue in line for food and are further inter-connected in so many different ways. The procrastinating over social distancing suggests to me that social bonds between humans remain stronger than (some) people like to admit.

Within the statistics quoted by Channel 4 Friday night was the one I have been waiting to hear. Recorded UK deaths, collated by the ONS. The figure lags behind the virus stats by several weeks due to the time it takes to register deaths but it is a reliable figure for validation as very few deaths go unregistered. What actually happened in week 13 this year, between 21st and 27th March, is about 1000 more people died than is normal. An order of magnitude increase above the error margin(!) Up until then the figures were running a little below the 5 year average due to the mild winter.

To put some perspective on it. You mentioned that we accept a certain level of road deaths. In the UK during 2018 about 1800 people were killed in road accidents, on average about 35 people per week. In week 11 Covid-19 was mentioned on death certificates 5 times. Week 12, 108 times. Week 13, 539 times.

My sincere condolences to any one for whom those numbers are more than numbers. I will not pretend to know you but I sympathise no less.

Actually it's 'Aviate, Navigate, communicate'. Which is important here. Keep flying, but don't keep flying in to the side of a mountain.

That's an interesting set of statistics.

'The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in Week 13 (week ending 27 March 2020) increased from 10,645 in Week 12 (week ending 20 March 2020) to 11,141. This is 1,011 more deaths than the five-year average of 10,130.'.

With only 539 deaths mentioning Covid (either at home or in hospital), even ignoring the significant overlap with other ailments, what's killing so many other people? I mean, obviously the lockdown has increased suicide rates, domestic violence, heart failure, and all the other things that kill people in stressful circumstances, but I didn't expect it to be nearly that bad and so quickly.

[The Hand]

We are also on 100% lockdown as Sally is now also symptomatic with CV, stay safe you lot, or else you'l have me to deal with, but not for 2 weeks minimum

Hope Sally and yourself have a swift recovery g8ina.

Edit:

Spreadie - I'm sorry for your loss and hope you and your family are coping.

[g8ina]

Ive pretty much given up on this thread. Im leaving you to it. I cant speak fopr the rest of the admin team, but I suspect they are equally sick of it.

[kompukare]

Sooner or later, the human body just't can't keep cashing the energy cheques that the conscious mind is writing.

How long before a critical number are simply too exhausted and long-term drained to keep going?

Also rest is vital if you are the one of the 1 n 5 that gets the bad immune responce from the virus.

Nurses that are exposed to higher viral loads, long hours and extremely stressful environment, are at greater risk.
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While probably impossible to quantify, the long hours which the medical profession work must have an impact on their health at the best of times.
During a pandemic without or with too little PPE, the shift work pattern dices with death.
Not sure what the solution is, but any time I've worked shifts anywhere - and this is specially the case in the so-called continental shift (3-4 days of 12-hour shifts followed by 3-4 days off rotating the pattern between days and nights) or double-day shifts - I though that some of it is cultural as in "we all hate these shift but we've always done them". Although rather than 'cultural' maybe "fatalistically resigned to this being the way things are" is a more appropriate word.

[DanceswithUnix]

'The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in Week 13 (week ending 27 March 2020) increased from 10,645 in Week 12 (week ending 20 March 2020) to 11,141. This is 1,011 more deaths than the five-year average of 10,130.'.

I think it will be some time before these statistics make detailed sense, if they ever do.

Car accident rates are way down, but apparently DIY injuries are up.

[TeePee]

Another day falling well short of the model. 737. Half the predicted 1476. This is a good sign, and hopefully another indication of a declining trend. That said, fewer people die from disease on Sundays. That goes for any disease, not necessarily this one, and a whole other discussion.. But again, fewer deaths is good.

[sammyc]

So sorry to hear that you have lost someone Spreadie, and that you & ik9000 have relatives still fighting this g8ina, thinking of you & Sally, hope things are as well as possible with you/all family (I'm sure it's taken as read without seeing this, if you do understandably stay away).

[j1979]

Another day falling well short of the model. 737. Half the predicted 1476. This is a good sign, and hopefully another indication of a declining trend. That said, fewer people die from disease on Sundays. That goes for any disease, not necessarily this one, and a whole other discussion.. But again, fewer deaths is good.

as much as ive gone on about it myself like a stuck record, forget statistics.

people aren't statistics, it's took me until now to realise. Peace, love and lets all forget our differences.

[DK2019]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...e_iOSApp_Other


"For millions, lockdown is not novels and quality family time but food parcels and hardship"

[matts-uk]

Actually it's 'Aviate, Navigate, communicate'. Which is important here. Keep flying, but don't keep flying in to the side of a mountain.

Good job I don't fly planes for a living. Thanks for putting me right. I've spent more time under water than in the air.

'The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in Week 13 (week ending 27 March 2020) increased from 10,645 in Week 12 (week ending 20 March 2020) to 11,141. This is 1,011 more deaths than the five-year average of 10,130.'.

With only 539 deaths mentioning Covid (either at home or in hospital), even ignoring the significant overlap with other ailments, what's killing so many other people? I mean, obviously the lockdown has increased suicide rates, domestic violence, heart failure, and all the other things that kill people in stressful circumstances, but I didn't expect it to be nearly that bad and so quickly.

On a personal note. I have read a lot of incident reports over the years but not one that used the word 'only' to quantify casualty numbers.

Of all the possibilities, you came up with the one you want to see? You're doing Friedman's trick of trying to fit the data to your hypothesis. Best stick to flying planes for a living.

Faulty analysis is the most probable cause of an improbable conclusion. A closer look at the source reveals a noisy data set. i) Tag data pulled from a narrative. ii) Includes non-residents. iii) Does not include all other tags. iv) Includes overlapping tags. v) So on and so forth.

The data set is inconsistent. Direct comparisons within the data set are likely to break rule #1 - Identity.

Briefly. To isolate how the analysis is broken the noise needs to be filtered out, which is where orders of magnitude come in. Divide all values by an order of magnitude and a lot of them fall below zero and can be removed as insignificant. The 'only' 539 becomes 53, it is significant. (Proving 'only' is a rhetorical abuse.) The potential error (1,011) is also reduced by an order of magnitude, so we are looking to attribute values in the 100s. The ONS provide a big clue with inclusion of the seasonal flu data. Compared to the 5yr average, the seasonal flu trend is travelling in the wrong direction with discrepancy in the 100s.

A significant number (100s) of the 1,011 are covid-19 cases misdiagnosed as seasonal flu. We can be more confident of the 539 as a proportion is attributed as a result of testing.

Given the data, going further risks 'making stuff up' in my opinion.